2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.
I spent perhaps a bit too much time this morning trying to put the spreadsheet below into graphical form: Pollster Time R D R +/- NPR Oct 3/4 43 43 0 NPR Sept 4/4 45 48 -3 Politico Oct 4/4 46 45 1 Politico Oct 3/4 46 46 0 Politico Oct 2/4 44 46 -2 Politico Oct 1/4 45 46 -1 Politico Sept 4/4 44 | Read More »
On that potentially troublesome Cook County poll.
The Daily Caller reported on a poll today that gave a rather remarkable result: it showed Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 to 37… in Cook County, Illinois: which of course includes the City of Chicago. Being under 50% in what can be considered the ultimate Democratic stronghold is not good news for the President. In 2008 Cook County went for Obama over McCain | Read More »
Crunching the July 2011 Rasmussen trust numbers.
I stopped doing this in the middle of 2010, once it became clear that the real question of 2010 was how many hits to the head with the snake the Democrats were going to take before it was all over. As the answer was “a lot,” I feel that this was a wise prioritization of my time. But it’s a new cycle, so let’s look | Read More »
Fourth of July: REPUBLICAN BREEDING GROUND!!!!!
[UPDATE: Promoted, with a link added from AoSHQ. I wish that I had written #1 on that list. - ML] I suspect that the Democratic party probably doesn’t want to ever see this sentence from a Harvard statistical survey appear in a news story: Taken together, the results indicate that Fourth of July celebrations in the United States shape the nation’s political landscape by forming | Read More »
Gallup: Obama slips with African-Americans, Hispanics…
Gallup mentions the most obvious point – the President has slipped from his historical approval rating among African-Americans (usually around 92%) all the way down to 85%* – but it kind of obscures a detail on the graph with regard to Hispanic voters. They acknowledge that the President is currently at a low with 54% of those voters, but Gallup does not point out that | Read More »
So, DSCC: which candidate will you abandon…
…to firewall Connecticut? Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are “angry” with government, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, is closing in on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and now trails just 49 – 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 51 – 45 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 14 | Read More »
The poll that scares the Democrats most.
It’s this one, from the never-to-be-sufficiently-hated-by-the-Left Rasmussen: and on its face it’s innocuous enough. It’s the partisan identification poll, and it currently lists Democrats at 35%, Republicans at 33.8%, and Neither at 31.1%. Unsurprising, based on recent events, right? – Also, it’s a poll of adults, so this probably means a Republican advantage among likely voters, as that’s the usual rule of thumb for these | Read More »
The August Rasmussen Trust Numbers.
The latest Rasmussen trust numbers are out, after what was an odd formatting thing that made me decide to stop reporting them until things settled down. Short version: Rasmussen has replaced Abortion with Afghanistan in the top ten category; the GOP won all ten, including that perennial heartbreaker Government Ethics; and the numbers nonetheless show a shift away from July’s numbers, mostly because July’s numbers | Read More »
Gallup whispers DOOM in 2010.
With less than four months to go before the fall elections, the greatest growth industry in the country right now is the tea importation business: everybody who has any interest in the November results is trying his or her hand at precognition. Gallup is no exception: This year’s low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority | Read More »
The May Rasmussen trust numbers.
There’s no article up on them yet, but the raw numbers are available here. May 2010 April 2010 Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift Health Care 41% 48% (7) 41% 48% (7) – Education 40% 43% (3) 43% 39% 4 (7) Social Security 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) – Abortion 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) – Economy 39% 48% (9) 39% | Read More »
Rasmussen: Support for Obamacare repeal almost 2-to-1.
I almost wish I hadn’t written this: it would have been perfect for this Rasmussen poll on Obamacare. Support for repeal of the new national health care plan has jumped to its highest level ever. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of U.S. voters now favor repeal of the plan passed by congressional Democrats and signed into law by President Obama | Read More »
The April Rasmussen Trust numbers.
I’ve been trying to do this post for a few days (Rasmussen usually puts these numbers up before it does a formal article). Short version: eight out of ten for the GOP, but the Democrats made up lost territory across the board. Apr-10 Mar-10 Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift Health Care 41% 48% (7) 37% 53% (16) 9 Education 43% 39% 4 | Read More »