Think that the Democrats will retake the House in ’16? Fine. Name the seats.
While you are going to hear a good deal about how the Democrats plan to message, and take advantage of their gerrymandered states, and framing, and almost everything else – one thing that’s going to be not talked about much will be which seats are going to flip.
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Barack Obama not yet understanding that he needs to be irrelevant to 2016.
This should be fascinating to watch: “In recent weeks, Democratic operatives have begun to voice concerns that the 2014 midterms made plain the limits of an approach that failed to reach beyond minority groups or those who are reflexively liberal. And yet what should come next is not yet totally clear.” Largely because it’s essentially futile. The Democrats will not have control over their message in 2016, | Read More »
The Left’s plan to retake state legislatures through targeted character assassination.
(H/T: Instapundit) There are several amusing things about this article from the Washington Examiner on the topic of what the Left hopes to do towards state legislatures in the upcoming election cycle: “We’re working with David Brock and Media Matters and American Bridge who have trackers that we can send out to monitor the debate on some bills that you all might be running,” Nick Rathod, | Read More »
Actually, it’s the *conservatives* who can make better plays to the middle in 2016.
Allahpundit is raising an excellent point, here: Why would a center-right voter prefer Jeb Bush to Scott Walker? We all do understand, I hope, that Walker will be running basically as a centrist, yes? …I think he’s going to run as a similar sort of pragmatist as Bush — lots of talk about jobs and education, squishy on immigration, socially conservative but low key about | Read More »
Why the Democrats stupidly wrote off Louisiana too quickly.
As you no doubt know, the Democrats got their clocks cleaned last night in two House seat runoff elections and one Senate one. The question is, could they have done better? – Actually, no, the question is, could they have done much better? …And the answer may indeed be ‘yes’ in both cases. Please note: a lot of this is going to be a discussion | Read More »
Obama sets record as losingest loser President in loser history
Larry Sabato has an interesting article in Politico asking the intriguing question why any political party would want to have the presidency for two terms given the damage that does to the party in Congress and in the States: The historical record is clear: A party surges when it elects a president, but goes into a roller-coaster decline shortly thereafter. Even if a party makes | Read More »
I actually think that these kids at Occidental really learned something.
Occidental College students learn a valuable life lesson: ritual magic doesn’t work, even in political science.
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Chuck Schumer quietly starts distancing Democrats from Obama for 2016.
I’m just going to summarize it: Senator Chuck Schumer today ever-so-casually indicated that working first on Obamacare was a mistake; that, in fact, Congress should have instead worked on pretty much anything else besides Obamacare; and that Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) 10% himself opposed starting first on Obamacare, but all those Obama supporters in the Obama administration were so adamant that Obamacare be | Read More »
How the GOP used social media to outsmart anti-free speech laws.
Looks like the NRCC was on the ball this cycle. Republicans and outside groups used anonymous Twitter accounts to share internal polling data ahead of the midterm elections, CNN has learned, a practice that raises questions about whether they violated campaign finance laws that prohibit coordination. Translation: they probably didn’t, which CNN will concede later. Moving on… …The groups behind the operation had a sense | Read More »
The Democrats are keeping their leadership cadre. …Bless their hearts.
Chris Cillizza is not quite gobsmacked: Nine days ago, Democrats lost (at least) eight of their seats and their majority in the Senate. On the House side, the party dipped to at their lowest level — in terms of raw number of seats held — since World War II. How did the party react to this rejection from the American public? By preparing to re-elect every | Read More »
Who *will* we get as a nominee for 2016?
I understand Allahpundit’s concern, here: Nominate a guy like [Ted] Cruz and he can spend the entire campaign pandering to the middle since conservatives feel 100 percent sure he’ll govern as a conservative in office. Obama benefited from the same logic on the left six years ago: He could reassure Rick Warren and evangelicals that he believed in traditional marriage with nary a peep from | Read More »
Ten bad assumptions about 2014.
Oh, trust me, there are more. But these are the ones that most immediately come to mind. Also note that I’m not going to saturate this with links; this is an almost-casual observation/recap, not a would-be public policy paper. The polling. This has been commented on, over and over and over again: and I’m only adding it because otherwise somebody will say But, Moe: what about | Read More »
The Press’s Confirmation Bias and the End of Objectivity
“With polling seemingly increasingly impossible to get right, the last checks on media objectivity are dissolving.”Most reporters in the DC Circle of Jerks lean left. They do. Look at their marriages, their career paths, etc. They lean left. But I do think a lot of them recognize it and try to balance it with alternative data. That is all coming to an end now rather | Read More »
The “We Are Not Obama” Election of 2014
The spin doctors involved in the election would have you believe this has been a substantive campaign. They’d have you believe that real issues were discussed to get people to vote. My wife is classified as a swing voter because she typically does not vote in primaries, but has had to, like me, vote in local Democrat primaries to shape local electoral outcomes. Otherwise she | Read More »