My Election Predictions

    Tomorrow is the big election (finally!), and we’re at that point where everything’s been said and re-said, analyzed and turned over and examined again. And what are we being told? “It’s too close to call.” Really? Enthusiasm is sky-high for Republicans.  Mitt Romney is packing people in the Red Rocks in Colorado and got 20,000 people to turn out in the cold in Pennsylvania. Early voting | Read More »

    A Wide Electoral/Popular Vote Split Won’t Happen

    There is an emerging narrative percolating throughout the political world; the prospect that Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.  The theory is predicated on the seemingly contradictory data between state and national polls.  National polls seem to show Romney with a consistent 2-4% lead, while state polls show the candidates tied or Obama slightly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. | Read More »

    An Odd Assumption

    I’m looking for help here this morning.   I understand that wise and wonderful election wizards like Karl Rove begin the process of predicting election wins by making the (goofy, IMHO) assumption that the incumbent will win all the same states he/she did in the last race. I know they have to start somewhere, but is this a reasonable assumption in this particular race?   | Read More »

    Electoral Map preview, Monday 11/3

    With the mainstream media no longer being a reliable source for objective information, here’s my read on the election. The below uses actual data, as we do in the scientific world, rather than liberal subjective bias. Here’s my personal electoral map. McCain will have to run a tough course to get there, but its not out of the realm of possibility: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obamavsmccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-2-1-1-1-5-3-1-3-1-4-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-5-5-1-1-1-5-3-5-3-1-5-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-5-1-3-1-3 In case that | Read More »

    Karl Rove’s Electoral Map (09/14/08): McCain Gets Florida and The Lead. Is New York Next?

    Rove talked about this chart on Fox News Sunday (transcript at the link) yesterday, but the chart was not put online until today. John McCain now leads in the Electoral College for the first time since early June, with 227 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 226 votes and 85 votes as a toss-up. Florida (27 EV) switched from toss-up to McCain to give the Republican | Read More »

    roadmap to victory

    f you look at the current RCP electoral map, the road to 270 goes thru the following toss up state: Virgina (reasonable), Ohio (reasonable), Nevada (close to reasonable), New Mexico (close to reasonable). The debates will be huge, key is to keep the Obiden ticket off balance and polls slightly in the good guys favor until debates. I expect a relaxed and energized Mccain in | Read More »