With less than four months to go before the fall elections, the greatest growth industry in the country right now is the tea importation business: everybody who has any interest in the November results is trying his or her hand at precognition. Gallup is no exception: This year’s low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority | Read More »
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006. Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.
Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics – an underrated blogger, possibly because RCP is such a good site generally that its bloggers get overshadowed – still holds his opinion from April that the House is going to flip big in November: The bottom line is that Democrats are on pace for an ugly November. They’re increasingly running out of time to change the dynamic, and | Read More »
President Obama is losing political influence on Capitol Hill, because poll numbers indicate that the President is unpopular with the American voters. Gallup reports today that “U.S. registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not — little changed from earlier this year.” This is going to be a tough fall for | Read More »
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years. Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March. Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
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