Gallup Poll completely flawed
10-8-08 Gallup poll shows 11 point lead for ZerObama. However, a closer look at the Demographics shows the following:Democrats 87-8 for ZerObamaRepublicans 88-9 for McCainIndys 44-42 for ObamaThe only way it’s Zero by 11 is if Dems outnumber Republicans by 10 points. The last two elections broke down this way:2004 37R-37D-26I2000 39D-35R-26II know there will probably be more Dems than Repubs this year, BUT THERE | Read More »
Well Well…Gallup Shows A Tie Again
So here are the three tracking polls I have been following.As of September 25: Gallup Tracking – Tie , 46 46 Rasmussen Tracking – Obama +3 , 49 46 Battleground Tracking – McCain +1 , 48 47 Everyone buckle your chin straps and hang on.
Latest Gallup Poll — The Pragmatisits View
Ok, so I wake up this morning and see this:Now, it’s going to be a long 40-something days until the election and things can turn on a time, without a doubt. Conceding now is absurd to say the least. The debates are still in front of us, and Obama will undoubtedly prove himself to be the Empty Suit he is.But the question in the back | Read More »
Winning The Whitehouse And Taking Back The Congress: Part II!
This is an update of a post I did a couple weeks ago before the polls caught up to my thinking. I might add that I was ridiculed and ignored when I posted the first installment of this. I guess the worm has turned as I predicted…hmmm!Gallup has now proven that the dire predictions of the imminent doom of the Republican Party are not only | Read More »
It must be cold in the liberal’s alternate reality
You know who you are. You are LYING to US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You dirty, corrupt SOBs!”Chuck Todd is LYING!MSNBC is LYING!CNN is LYING!ABC is LYING!CBS is LYING!Wallstreet Journal is LYING!USA Today is LYING!And the polls…?GALLUP IS LYING!RASMUSSEN IS LYING!THERE IS NO TIE! This is a fabrication. This is an illusion. This is a fairytale.”For real! What will happen when this poor soul realizes he’s been in a | Read More »
Gallup: If These Numbers Are Sustained Through Election Day Republicans Could Be Expected To Regain Control of the U.S. House of Representatives
Gallup has breathed the unthinkable. Republicans have a shot a retaking the House. Of course, one has to presume that such a result would mean the White House is thrown in for good measure.The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much | Read More »
The Phoenix Rises: McCain Surges Past Obama
John McCain has surged past Obama in the most recent USA/Today Poll, opening a massive lead of 54-44. It marks the first time either of the two candidates have garnered so much support nationwide. Though the results of the poll are probably a bit extreme, the conclusion is not. Taking into account the Poll of Polls, which shows McCain with a lead over Obama, the | Read More »
ELECTION PROJECTION- McCAIN BOUNCE HAS BEGUN
It was bound to happen, and we now have the polling data to back it up:McCain has received a modest bounce from the convention.The first indicator of this was a release from CNN last week, around Labor Day, showing Obama’s lead had narrowed to just 1 point, 49-48 (here).Soon after, CBS news released this one on Thursday, indicating in their polling that the race was | Read More »
Um… Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About The Polls?
McCain is getting one heck of a bounce.Remember that he was behind before the Democratic Convention.Then He was farther behind after the Democratic Convention.Now he has made up ALL that ground and in fact has gone ahead.AND….There is one more day to go before we see the full affect of McCain’s speech.We must hold down the celebrating until we see where they are on or | Read More »
Decent Gallup bounce for Obama.
48 – 42 (+6 Obama) on the Gallup Poll; Rasmussen’s currently tied at 47/47, but the explanatory text suggests that tomorrow’s numbers are going to be more Obama-friendly (they float the concept of a possible ‘modest lead,’ which means… I have no idea). While this technically represents Monday through Wednesday, today’s numbers probably are not taking into account the Wednesday lineup of speakers, which means | Read More »
The State of the Race in National Polling
Based on data conveniently aggregated for me by resident poll addict Adam C, I would now like to try to make sense of the recent national polling of the Presidential election, excluding tracking polls which are more useful for measuring movement than status.The polls included in my survey are as follows:NOTA: None of the Above. LV: Likely Voters. RV: Registered Voters.PollDateMcCainObamaNOTASampleZogby8/4424117LVAP-Ipsos8/4424810RVCNN7/2944515RVGallup7/2749456LVPew7/27424711RVMy conclusion: It’s a close | Read More »