Fox News meets the Swingometer
From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues. I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
Dueling polls in New Mexico
From Unlikely Voter: Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party. But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.
Pomeroy’s not finished yet
From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race. We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Cook updates on the House
A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored: Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are | Read More »
Gallup caught lying about the generic ballot trend [Updated 6PM ET]
[6PM ET update after 12PM ET original post at the bottom of this post] The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to. How? Gallup is combining | Read More »
Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.
Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story
Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer. By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why | Read More »
, Cedric Richmond
, Congressional Quarterly
, Hotline On Call
, joseph cao
, Market Research Insight
, Verne Kennedy
, William Jefferson
Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot
(H/T to Liberty Central) So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide. But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?
Simulating the latest Cook House ratings
On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.
Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?
Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.” But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?
Landmark shift in the Gallup enthusiasm readings
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006. Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.
Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race
South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.
With 17% reporting: Yes, friends, we can rejoice that Orly Taitz, exalted birtherlord, is being rejected tonight, losing in the Secretary of State primary 75-25 to Damon Dunn. Meg Whitman runs away in the Governor’s race 65-26. Schwarzeneggerite Abel Maldonaldo gets the drop on conservative favorite Sam Aanestad 46-28 for LtGov. Boxer crushes Kaus 78-6. Fiorina completes her surge to be up with 57 over | Read More »
Tags: Abel Maldonaldo
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Chuck Devore
, Clay Thibodeau
, Damon Dunn
, Jingle PRimary
, Lieutenant Governor
, Mary Bono Mack
, Meg Whitman
, mickey kaus
, Orly Taitz
, Public Financing
, Sam Aanesad
, Secretary of State
, Tom Campbell
Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
, Barack Obama
, Bill Clinton
, Franklin Roosevelt
, Generic Ballot
, Harry Truman
, Midterm Elections
, Rasmussen Reports