Silver: If Gallup is Right, Dems are Toast

    Silver in the NYT: “…there is considerable disagreement among pollsters on the magnitude of the enthusiasm gap. If Gallup’s likely voter model, which implies extremely lopsided turnout in favor Republicans, were to be correct, G.O.P. gains would be well in excess of 50 seats. “ Just to be clear, Silver says the consensus among prognosticators is that the Dems lose 50 seats, plus or minus | Read More »

    The importance of an LV screen in FL

    Today, PPP released its first Florida senate poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_823714.pdf) with a likely voter screen. I have been waiting for this screen for a while now. As anticipated, the screen benefitted Rubio. Perhaps not so anticipated, however, was the size of the swing. PPP’s RV poll had Crist up by 6 points on 7/18 (35-29). Today’s poll has Rubio ahead 40-32, indicating a swing of 14 | Read More »