The December 2013 jobs report was about like the December 2013 weather. It was cloudy with a chance of Expletive. Depending on whose estimate you trust more, the models missed reality by 113 to 151 thousand. I’ll credit the BLS with not hiding the decline and admitting this one was a stinker. Contrary to expert opinion, I think it would have been a stinker regardless of what fell out of the sky. If the current set of conditions indicates recovery, God preserve me from an economic relapse. I’ll detail my reasoning below.
Being the profoundly intellectual and curious individual we all know her to be, Senator Elizabeth Warren is on the warpath for answers.* Her null hypothesis clearly remains that there is no such thing as a stupid question. Otherwise, she never would have asked the following:
“If we started in 1960, and we said that, as productivity goes up — that is, as workers are producing more — then the minimum wage is going to go up the same,” the Massachusetts senator said during the hearing. “And, if that were the case, the minimum wage today would be about $22 an hour. So, my question … is what happened to the other $14.75?” she asked University of Massachusetts professor of economics Arindrajit Dube: