The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.
You probably have heard already that the McMahon/Murphy Connecticut Senate race is getting interesting: Rasmussen and Quinnipac both came out with McMahon ahead in the polling at this point. Even the Democratic-controlled PPP couldn’t get more than a 48/44 lead for Murphy… and if you look at the trend there you’ll see that this is a steady erosion of Murphy’s lead over the course of the election season. When a candidate is getting at or above 50 and then steadily loses it – which is what happened in PPP & Quinnipac – that candidate is not in a good position. Meanwhile, over in New Jersey: the Menendez/Kyrillos Senate race is not showing the same drift. It’s in fact pretty static (if you look at the 2006 polling, Menendez is in a much better place now than he was then). Menendez is not consistently hitting 50%, but that happens a lot in NJ polling.Read More »