Nate Silver kicked up a minor fuss last Friday with yet another NY Times column deriding the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan. There’s less than meets the eye to the specifics of this particular dustup, but what’s interesting is Silver’s ongoing critique of Noonan and what it says about both of them. For today, I’ll focus here mainly on Noonan. Assume A Can Opener Noonan’s | Read More »
The second part of my 3-part post-mortem on the polls and the 2012 election. See yesterday’s Part I here. IV. Likely vs. Registered Voters A. Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Screen Near the heart of every major polling controversy this year was the issue of sampling and likely-voter screens. Polls traditionally report results among either “all adults” (whether or not registered to | Read More »
New York Magazine was trying to be sympathetic to the popular polling figures on its own side of the political, but let out a secret in the process: Public Policy Polling cooked the books all along.
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Nate Silver has all the liberals calmed down these days. He is the Xanax of the activist left, nervous about Tuesday. In an article HotAir linked to earlier today about rich, white San Francisco residents so upset by the thought of a Romney win they can’t use their home gyms, Mary Katharine Ham found this hilarious quote about a liberal who watched the first debate: | Read More »
Nate Silver is playing the part of the independent blogger with a system. Putting aside for the moment where ‘insider access’ is a legitimate system, such a pose allowed Silver to write things like this attack on Scott Rasmussen’s professional ethics because Rasmussen openly did some work for the Republican party during the 2004 election cycle. The impact of that particular post – which the Online Left has run with ever since – would have been much different if it had been disclosed that Nate Silver had had a formal special relationship with the Democratic party.
Read More »The New York Times’ Nate Silver is now going after Rasmussen Reports again. After the primaries he said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries. According to Silver’s own chart though, Rasmussen polled twice as often as the second place firm, and is still Silver’s primary target. Funny that.
So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally. But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.
Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees. I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the | Read More »
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