What I’m looking for in Florida tonight
Mitt Romney will win Florida tonight. The victory is already locked in. Early voting, etc. have helped. Here’s what I’m looking for in Florida. The margin of victory by Romney. Polling has Romney between 10 and 12 points ahead. So if he is 9 points ahead or less, given that he has one hell of a ground game here, that suggests Gingrich was able to | Read More »
Rethinking Santorum: Conventional Wisdom Finally Catches Up to Where I Was Two Weeks Ago
This morning I noted that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich together get more votes than Romney and several polls out in the past few weeks have had Santorum votes going to Gingrich. That has been the convention wisdom. About two weeks ago I decided the conventional wisdom was wrong, but having been told for two weeks I was wrong, I made the mistake of sticking | Read More »
A Further Response To Avik Roy on Establishments
My original essay on the current divide between the GOP “Establishment,” on the one hand, and the Tea Party and other anti-Establishment factions, on the other, sought to explain the leading issue (the growth of spending and the size of government relative to the private sector), the proximate cause (the loss of trust that the GOP Establishment would make a serious effort to stem this | Read More »
Moving Past Florida
“It’s like we’re facing Jimmy Carter and nominating Alf Landon.” More and more polls show two things: (1) tonight Mitt Romney will win Florida and (2) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will combined get more votes. In fact, moving forward, the Romney campaign will probably engage in a concerted effort to prop up Rick Santorum because as long as he stays in the race, Gingrich | Read More »
Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10
It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid. Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.
The Jacksonville Brawl
I’m biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I’d say that even if they didn’t send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . | Read More »
And We Should Hate Newt Gingrich for This?
All the members of the Republican Party who have been complicit and collaborative in the destruction of our nation in the past few decades always talking about smaller government while never fighting against the tide of creeping socialism have now come out against Newt Gingrich. Yesterday, at National Review, Elliot Abrams attacked Newt Gingrich for attacking Ronald Reagan from the right. Today, it is Bob | Read More »
Huge Romney bounce in Florida
We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on. Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.
We’re Fighting Over Two Guys and Neither Side Thinks the Other Can Win
I am a firm believer that primaries make stronger candidates. But at some point you just have to stand back, take a sip of bourbon, and sigh “Damn” under your breath as you behold the carnage being wrought within the Republican Party. The fight has gotten so bitter and acrimonious with only three states chosen because neither side thinks the other side can win. Gingrich | Read More »
The Republican Base Simply Does Not Like Mitt Romney & Why The Press Rarely Reports It
“Mitt Romney conveys all the business acumen of a co-CEO of Research in Motion, both of whom are themselves losing their jobs.” A friend of mine pointed out this morning that Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich $7 million to $.0008 million in Florida just to watch his 15 pt lead implode overnight. The Republican base does not trust Mitt Romney. Because they do not | Read More »
Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida
When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed. Rasmussen provided the confirmation.
Can “Newtmentum” Lead to a Win in Florida?
Download Podcast | iTunes | Podcast Feed On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech discuss Newt Gingrich’s win in South Carolina, what his victory means for Florida’s upcoming primary, and whether or not the GOP could have a brokered convention. We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you | Read More »
Secret Florida primary training video leaked!
Never you mind how said training video was acquired, and/or which campaigns are going to use it to inform their operating methodology: that part’s not important. What’s important is that this is how the next week is going to look, in the run-up to the Florida primary:
Thoughts on the SC primary.
As mentioned earlier, I was kind of taking last night off, so this will be a little scatter-shot. Anyway: Heh. Called it. Not that getting the order was all that hard, or even unsurprising; also note that I didn’t predict the percentages. By the way: the end results (Gingrich 40%, Romney 28%, Santorum 17%, Paul 13%) were pretty close to what PPP predicted (Gingrich 37%, | Read More »
Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means.
“The base is revolting because they swept the GOP back into relevance in Washington just under two years ago and they have been thanked with contempt ever since.” No candidate has won the GOP nomination for President without winning South Carolina since Ronald Reagan in 1980. But every one of those candidates who won had also won either Iowa or New Hampshire. We’re now confronted | Read More »