Oops. Donald Trump lost the lead again, and probably never had it.
Much attention was given to Donald Trump having a remarkably good polling week, one just barely good enough to give him a less-than-1% lead in the polling average. But that’s gone, as a freak outlier poll that gave him the lead, was retaken. Result: Hillary Clinton on top.
Second New Poll Confirms: Georgia is Now a Swing State
Trump supporters dismissed last week’s WSB/Landmark poll showing Clinton and Trump essentially tied in Georgia. Another poll has just been released by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution which confirms that Georgia is now essentially a toss up state between Clinton and Trump. Trump’s 4-point lead over Clinton — he’s at 45 percent — is within the poll’s margin of error, meaning neither can confidently claim a state | Read More »
Indiana reminds us: Polling remains dead
So before the results came in from Indiana, I pointed out that Indiana looked winnable for Cruz, and looked at the ways the polls had gotten it badly wrong in neighboring states, ways that grossly underestimated one candidate or another. Turns out they grossly underestimated Donald Trump.
Polls confirm it: John Kasich is propping up Donald Trump this week
While Ted Cruz and John Kasich are beginning to work together to stop Donald Trump, but their new deal only affects future states. This week, with 172 delegates on the line, John Kasich’s presence in the race sadly serves only as massive spoiler to help Donald Trump, and the polls confirm it.
Red Alert: Trump below 50 statewide in New York poll
Donald Trump is bleeding delegates left and right. Even delegates pledged to him are ending up preferring other candidates. As a result, if he can’t secure a clear first ballot win, he’ll badly lose the runoff election at the convention. A near-sweep in New York is vital to Trump. Previous polling has already shown obvious regional weaknesses for him outside of the city, but a | Read More »
Donald Trump is the “Pedro” Candidate
If you saw the movie Napoleon Dynamite, you’ll remember Pedro, Napoleon’s best friend. Pedro wasn’t loud, obnoxious, or insulting like Donald Trump is, but, when giving his speech before class president elections, he sounded exactly like Trump. Pedro: Vote for me, and all your wildest dreams will come true. Trump doesn’t have specifics. Trump doesn’t have actual plans. He has insults aplenty, and ridicules everyone: the | Read More »
New Poll: Women Really Don’t Like Trump
It’s no surprise that women don’t like Trump. The past few weeks have shown his campaign’s disregard for women with its response to employed thug Lewandowski’s behavior, and recently, Trump’s own statements on punishing women who have abortions. According to a new Gallup poll released Friday: …Trump’s image among U.S. women tilts strongly negative, with 70% of women holding an unfavorable opinion and 23% a favorable opinion of | Read More »
March 5 Poll Post Mortem: The Wino Returns Wearing A Clown Nose And Tutu
If you believe in political polls, yesterday would have driven you to drink and dangerous drugs
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Super Tuesday Polls Post Mortem: You Would Get Better Results Asking Random Winos
Other than a couple of bright spots, the state polling for Super Tueday ranged from merely wrong to truly bizarre and detached from reality
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Succeeding Scalia: The New York Times rediscovers push polling
The British TV comedy series Yes, Prime Minister* made fun of political issue polling by pointing out that shady pollsters can get any result they want, and someone with an agenda is usually more than happy to use such a shady poll to push that agenda. Today The New York Times reported giddily that if they led up to their key agenda question, with a | Read More »
New Hampshire Tracking poll: Guess who fell today?
Since the Harper poll of New Hampshire is pretty bad (landline only, “The fav/unfav numbers are so absurd it has to be a transcription error – Jay Cost, “That poll looks weird” – Harry Enten), we’ve still only got the UMass tracking poll to work with. And in the tracking poll, one candidate is even, one is down, and one is up.
Iowa polling: Is Ted Cruz holding up against Donald Trump?
It’s amazing to me how little polling there actually is of Iowa right now. We’re about two weeks away from the caucuses, but according to Real Clear Politics as of this writing, there have only been six polls this year. So when we’re ‘ooh’ing and ‘ahh’ing at the rough-and-tumble between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, we don’t actually have very many data points to look | Read More »
Does Donald Trump’s Polling Show A Reverse Bradley Effect?
As we move into the election season, polling is the grist of political blogging. Polls will drive media coverage and create horse-race narratives about who is up and who is down and why. Most of it will be meaningless. At its very best, political polling is luck because of the difficulty of constructing a representative sample of the election day electorate before the event. Often | Read More »