Understanding Debt Ceiling Attitudes

    While President Obama claims that 80% of Americans want to see their taxes increased to address the Federal deficit, Congress continues to debate raising the debt ceiling and we close in on the highly publicized August 2nd deadline to avoid a government default, there are several points that need to be made to keep claims of public support in context. First, significant numbers of Americans | Read More »

    Obama can’t hide from bad economy

    /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:”Table Normal”; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:””; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:”Calibri”,”sans-serif”; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} In yet another sign that the President will be facing a very tough reelection campaign, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows that 48% of Americans believe that we are likely to enter a | Read More »

    Short Memories And Republican Successes

    Back on March 15th, I wrote a post pointing out what happens when Republicans get milquetoast — their polling goes down.If you will go back to March 15th, there was a poll out that said the GOP hadn’t been compromising enough. In fact, the poll said that “71% say the GOP is not willing enough to compromise with Obama on the deficit.”I noted at the | Read More »

    Short Memories And Republican Successes

    Back on March 15th, I wrote a post pointing out what happens when Republicans get milquetoast — their polling goes down.If you will go back to March 15th, there was a poll out that said the GOP hadn’t been compromising enough. In fact, the poll said that “71% say the GOP is not willing enough to compromise with Obama on the deficit.”I noted at the | Read More »

    Is Palin Really “Losing Ground”?

    Great piece by Chris Perkins of WRS: Recent interpretations of national polling data have suggested that former Alaska Governor and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin is “losing ground” based on movements in her image rating among all self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. But what are we really looking at? – FACT: The recent Washington Post/ABC news poll that is the basis the “losing ground” comments still | Read More »

    Polling Underestimates Conservative Tsunami

    When asking questions in these polls, participants are asked to identify which political movement they identify with, and the options from which they must choose are Democrat, Republican, Independent, and Tea Party. When a polling participant supports more than one of the options provided, the uncertainty in choosing which single movement to report as the primary affiliation creates errors in polling data interpretation.   This | Read More »

    2010 Predictions (and what they mean for 2012)

    With less than two weeks to go until Election Day and while a lot has changed, little has changed. We still expect a Republican wave to overwhelm Democratic control in the House and the Senate will still come down to one or two seats one way or another. This got us to contemplating what the 2010 elections mean for 2012 and beyond. First a quick | Read More »

    Be Ready for some poll swings

    It’s not just October surprises Be ready for some interesting poll swings in the upcoming couple of weeks. I fully expect that we will see the generic ballot continue to swing towards the GOP and many races solidify squarely into our camp — it’s our year. However, I fully expect at least one race that is leaning Republican or is a tossup to widen out | Read More »

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    Could the G.O.P. Take the Senate?

        It is probably a foregone conclusion that Republicans should win the House this year.  A perfect storm of a stagnant economy, a floundering President, and anti-incumbent fever has Democrats on the rope.  Although many pundits are predicting a turnover of epic proportions, my analysis shows that we should hold on.  Although the House will certainly flip, this is a double-edged sword.  On the plus | Read More »

    Kudos to Kos for honesty

    The liberal Daily Kos website got defrauded by the pollster they’ve used for quite a long time. Many people, especially on the Right, have been skeptical over their consistently liberal-favoring numbers, but I could not have imagined the scope of the fraud. From my somewhat mathematical, if not statistical, background it looks like the numbers have been either manually adjusted or completely made up without | Read More »

    Bad Polling Discredits Good Polling

    “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” “You can use a poll to prove anything.” We all hear the lines like these, which reflect the popular view of statistical analysis and opinion polling. Nobody believes it. It’s all made up, says the conventional wisdom, or at least doctored to a degree that it can’t be trusted. It’s not actually so bad at all, but it’s hard to | Read More »

    Rasmussen now polling California Senate race

    I received a phone call identifying itself as coming from Rasmussen conducting an automated poll that focused on the California Senate race. First time I’ve received such a call from Rasmussen. (I thank RedState for informing me of their reputation or I might not have participated.) After general job performance questions on Obama and on Arnold (one each), the poll had three head-to-head votes between | Read More »

    Fortunately, they will ignore Tom Jensen utterly.

    He’s been making the tactical error of not telling Democrats what they want to hear lately*, so any excuse to discount this cold water on GOP party disunity is a good enough one, right? In the wake of NY-23 last fall a lot of Democrats hoped that the ideological war within the Republican Party would impede GOP progress in 2010. I just don’t see it | Read More »

    Clinton Pollster: Polls Show Health Reform Could Fail Again

    The New Republic, under the leadership of Jonathan Cohn, has been the number one cheerleader for health care reform writ large. His repeated exhortations for reform has had a similar effect to Paul Krugman of the NYT on the Democratic Party. It is why this article from the New Republic is oh, so very, very important. Stanley Greenberg was the pollster who lead the Democratic | Read More »

    NJ-GOV: GOP Christie up 6 over Dem incumbent Corzine

    This is one that we need to pay attention to. Republican Chris Christie is up 6, 42-46, over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Save Jersey pulls the real highlights: On the day Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for Governor, his campaign is boosted by news of a poll that shows him as the strongest challenger to Governor Jon Corzine. While neither candidate breaks 50% | Read More »