2010 Predictions (and what they mean for 2012)
With less than two weeks to go until Election Day and while a lot has changed, little has changed. We still expect a Republican wave to overwhelm Democratic control in the House and the Senate will still come down to one or two seats one way or another. This got us to contemplating what the 2010 elections mean for 2012 and beyond. First a quick | Read More »
Be Ready for some poll swings
It’s not just October surprises Be ready for some interesting poll swings in the upcoming couple of weeks. I fully expect that we will see the generic ballot continue to swing towards the GOP and many races solidify squarely into our camp — it’s our year. However, I fully expect at least one race that is leaning Republican or is a tossup to widen out | Read More »
Could the G.O.P. Take the Senate?
It is probably a foregone conclusion that Republicans should win the House this year. A perfect storm of a stagnant economy, a floundering President, and anti-incumbent fever has Democrats on the rope. Although many pundits are predicting a turnover of epic proportions, my analysis shows that we should hold on. Although the House will certainly flip, this is a double-edged sword. On the plus | Read More »
Kudos to Kos for honesty
The liberal Daily Kos website got defrauded by the pollster they’ve used for quite a long time. Many people, especially on the Right, have been skeptical over their consistently liberal-favoring numbers, but I could not have imagined the scope of the fraud. From my somewhat mathematical, if not statistical, background it looks like the numbers have been either manually adjusted or completely made up without | Read More »
Bad Polling Discredits Good Polling
“Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” “You can use a poll to prove anything.” We all hear the lines like these, which reflect the popular view of statistical analysis and opinion polling. Nobody believes it. It’s all made up, says the conventional wisdom, or at least doctored to a degree that it can’t be trusted. It’s not actually so bad at all, but it’s hard to | Read More »
Rasmussen now polling California Senate race
I received a phone call identifying itself as coming from Rasmussen conducting an automated poll that focused on the California Senate race. First time I’ve received such a call from Rasmussen. (I thank RedState for informing me of their reputation or I might not have participated.) After general job performance questions on Obama and on Arnold (one each), the poll had three head-to-head votes between | Read More »
Fortunately, they will ignore Tom Jensen utterly.
He’s been making the tactical error of not telling Democrats what they want to hear lately*, so any excuse to discount this cold water on GOP party disunity is a good enough one, right? In the wake of NY-23 last fall a lot of Democrats hoped that the ideological war within the Republican Party would impede GOP progress in 2010. I just don’t see it | Read More »
Clinton Pollster: Polls Show Health Reform Could Fail Again
The New Republic, under the leadership of Jonathan Cohn, has been the number one cheerleader for health care reform writ large. His repeated exhortations for reform has had a similar effect to Paul Krugman of the NYT on the Democratic Party. It is why this article from the New Republic is oh, so very, very important. Stanley Greenberg was the pollster who lead the Democratic | Read More »
NJ-GOV: GOP Christie up 6 over Dem incumbent Corzine
This is one that we need to pay attention to. Republican Chris Christie is up 6, 42-46, over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Save Jersey pulls the real highlights: On the day Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for Governor, his campaign is boosted by news of a poll that shows him as the strongest challenger to Governor Jon Corzine. While neither candidate breaks 50% | Read More »
NEWS FLASH: Ayers and Obama Again!
Thiswas on AOL News this morning: “Bill Ayers (R), co-founder of the organization Weather Underground, chats with other voters after casting his vote in the U.S. presidential election at the Beulah Shoesmith Elementary School in Chicago, November 4, 2008. Ayers cast his vote within half an hour of U.S. democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama at the same polling place.”Still think there’s no continuing connection? Why | Read More »
Election Preview: Eight States That Will Determine Election
Here is my Monday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt.New Hampshire – BO 52.8 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.9 and JM 45.1. Obama wins New Hampshire.Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 43.7; Undecideds 5.0; | Read More »
Election Preview: Tale of Eight States Two Days Out
Here is a Sunday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt.New Hampshire – BO 52.7 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.3; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.3 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.8 and JM 45.2. Obama wins New Hampshire.Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 44.0; Undecideds 4.7; | Read More »
The fault in these public opinion polls
I do not post very often (to say the least) but I do read these boards all the time. Much of the discussions that I focus on deal with these polls. I would like to address some of these arguments of how these polls could be wrong. I will try to speak in real language, because unfortunately polling has morphed into a business that is | Read More »
Great News from the Silver State!
Despite the early Democratic turnout in Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) counties, John McCain looks poised to carry Nevada’s 5 electoral votes. Read here: Early Nevada Exit figures.An updated version is here.Exit polling, provided by Las Vegas-based Dialing Nationwide Automatically, also indicates a significant number of Democrats defecting to the Arizona Senator, with Independents/Unaffiliateds swinging his way, too.
GOP Internal polling suggest McCain will win in a Landslide! But we must absolutely vote! (Updated)
According to Pittsburg-based conservative talk radio show, QUINN & ROSE, McCain’s “GOP Internal Polling” shows the Arizona Republican smashing Obama in such surprise states as New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and tying the Illinois Senator in the reliable “blue” states of California and Michigan–each with undecideds at 9% of the vote!The “GOP Internal Polling” firm, which demanded it remain anonymous, has John McCain beating Obama 48% | Read More »