Unlocking Those “Pesky” Polls
I make my living as a certified Six Sigma Black Belt, so statistics are an integral part of my life. Knowing what I know, I am dumbfounded that Poll results are as reliable as they appear to be – at least up to this point. They are more accurate the closer they are taken to an election, which is logical, but this could also reflect | Read More »
McCain within the MOE in MINNESOTA???
Survey USA came out with a poll yesterday showing the Presidential race within the margin of error in….MINNESOTA!!!!!! http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f848e0e7-4b37-4480-9248-35238dba01ce Obama: 49%McCain: 46%MOE: 3.9% SERIOUSLY??? Granted, Minnesota is a lot less liberal than many people think (I consider it my adopted state as I went to college there and plan to move back once I finish law school). And granted, the GOP convention was in St. | Read More »
Let’s Reignite Operation Chaos Tomorrow
Friends, tomorrow is the day we’ve been focused on for so long. Let’s make it a great day. Let’s reignite Operation Chaos. As you know, the media relies on exit polling to formulate their news coverage of Election Day. Likewise, the campaigns make estimations as the day wears on via exit polls. Lastly, in preparing for the next election’s polling, some pollsters will use exit | Read More »
Closing the case: four more reasons McCain should win
In two previous postings, here and here, I have discussed six reasons why Sen. John McCain should emerge victorious in tomorrow’s race for the White House. To recap, they are media bias, oversampling of Democrats by most polling organizations, Obama campaign smugness, his long list of criminal and radical associates, the center-right majority of America’s voters and the uncounted millions of PUMAs hiding under cover, | Read More »
A Healthy Trend in Pennsylvania
I can’t tell you who’s going to win Pennsylvania tomorrow, but it seems rather likely that whoever takes the state is probably going to win the White House as well. And if you’re the McCain campaign, the direction of the polls in the state seems to be pretty clear: Take a look at the most recent polls in Pennsylvania: Rasmussen shows McCain shaving a point | Read More »
Fox News/Rasmussen State Polls: McCain tied everywhere!
Here for the details OH: 49-49 Tied FL: 50-49 McCain MO: 49-49 Tied NC: 50-49 McCain CO: 51-47 Obama VA: 51-47 Obama I think this is Fox and Rasmussen’s CYA poll. If he wins, they can say that undecideds broke for McCain and that Obama’s poll numbers were overestimated within the margin of error. Ha.
26 Reasons McCain Will Win
The Obama campaign is a typical Democrat operation. Every four years, the Dems assume that Americans are sheep, that they are dazzled by people like Obama, that they are grasping at straws and will vote for anyone who says “change”, that they believe that Obama can fix everything. The Obama campaign is wrong. Here are 26 reasons McCain will win. Each is a chink in | Read More »
McCain’s path to victory?
So, 48 hours from now, we should have a good idea of whether John McCain pulled off the impossible. So how does he do that? Let’s take a look at the “dire” RCP state averages. If we assume McCain wins the states he is leading in, that is 185 electoral votes. This means he captures “battlegrounds” AZ, MT, GA, IN, and MO. Further, let’s look | Read More »
The Strategy of Defeatism
All day long I have listened to Fox News and their “analysts” bemoaning the latest polls and what they mean, state by state, and, in some cases, county by county. Having examined the methodologies of the major pollsters, I must say I greet their numbers with skepticism. Why? First, the pollsters do not just ask the potential voter for whom they plan to vote. There | Read More »
Will You have a Friend in Penn
Penn State… here’s what CAN happen, You vote to Spread the weatlh, the tourists just don’t come.. They can’t afford the gas, nor hotels (that will probably close) or the shoefly pies. The Amish living starts to get clearer, not that natural resources are bad in any way. Horses are cheaper, much more work.Candlelight will cost less than the electricity increases and taxes will rise | Read More »
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47, McCain 45
Most accurate pollster in 2004 says it’s a two point race. Obama 47, McCain 45 Fear not, my friends.
For All You Folks Who Read Polls, Read This!
This is rather long but worth the read.http://www.wizbangblog.com/content/2008/11/01/funky-gallup.php It will give you some insight into what is wrong with the polls. GOTV!
New Mason Dixon Polls Look Pretty Good
Per RCP, Mason Dixon has polls this AM showing McCain up 2 in OH (first poll showing that in a while), up 3 in NC (whew) and only down 3 in VA (he’s going to win here, but this is the closest he has been in a long time in any poll – yesterday 2 polls had him down 4). Mason Dixon also has him | Read More »
Winning the Election vs. Winning the Polls: Possible vs. Impossible
Many of us have been carefully watching for McCain to move ahead in this year’s national polling. However, we must realize that based on the turnout assumptions underlying all of these polls, it is nearly impossible for McCain to move ahead. That does not mean that the election is out of reach. This year’s polling assumes a turnout model that, if it were to hold | Read More »
With all the new events surrounding the recent uncovered stories of the Obama campaign, I have come to the notion, no one seems to care what surrounds this candidate.His past, nor present news, seem to be relevant to anyone. They seem to lean upon this news with deaf ears.While out on Halloween with my kids, I asked questions to the Democratic voters with signs on | Read More »