Mythbusting–Presidential Polls Edition

    Can we stop saying that Barack Obama is an especially popular President? Because it’s just not true. Oh, to be sure, the President will receive a boost in the polls thanks to his non-State of the Union address, but said bump will likely be temporary and it does not disguise the fact that the President is not nearly as popular as commentators make him out | Read More »

    Americans Trust Themselves on the Economy More Than Obama

    Yes We Can! Forty-nine percent (49%) of U.S. voters trust their own judgment more than President Obama’s when it comes to the economic issues affecting the nation.

    Don’t Listen to the Polls, Nancy. You’re Doing a Heckuva Job.

    I’ll let Rasmussen set it up: Democrats are still trusted more than Republicans to handle the economy by a 44% to 39% margin, but their advantage on the issue has been slipping steadily since November… In the first poll conducted after Barack Obama was elected president, the Democrats held a 15-point lead over the GOP on economic issues. In December, their lead dropped to 12 | Read More »

    On The Polls And The Obamaian Stimulus Package

    Most of the headlines suggest that Barack Obama’s stimulus package enjoys wide and deep support among the populace. Russell Roberts points out that things are a little more complicated than that. Just out of curiosity, why is it that a mainstream journalist has not appeared to notice the same thing?

    Exit Polls

    I have been traveling all day, to Washington DC of all places, and am watching the news and exit polls for the first time. It seems that many of the exit polls seem to be favorable to McCain/Palin. Hopefully that will bring good news later tonight.

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    Today’s Headlines — Nov. 4, 2008

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/04/voters-go-to-polls-today-in-historic-election/ Voters go to polls today in historic election http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/04/lawyers-to-descend-on-polls-to-protect-voting/ Campaigns send lawyers to watch polls Thousands volunteer to watch for possible irregularities http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/04/joe-plumber-says-mccains-chances-slim/ Joe the Plumber says McCain’s chances slim http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/04/catholics-probe-aid-directed-to-acorn/ Catholics probe aid directed to ACORN http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/05/voters-hit-polls-in-battleground-virginia/ Voters hit polls in battleground Virginia http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/05/justice-keeps-watch-on-possible-voter-fraud-intimi/ Justice keeps watch on fraud http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/04/taking-everything-on-blind-faith/ PRUDEN: Taking everything on blind faith Maria Stainer Assistant Managing Editor Continuous News | Read More »

    Vote With Your Mind…

    Indiana polls opened at 6:00 this morning, and I headed out the door at 6:10 to go cast my ballot. I arrived at the polling location just three minutes later (it’s just around the corner), and had to park at the Doctor’s office across the street because the school parking lot was full and cars were already lined up along the street. I crossed the | Read More »

    Polling Non-Response Rates

    I have been wondering about a unique factor in this year’s polling data. Since a large fraction of people pollsters call refuse to participate, how do pollsters compensate for different response rates from supporters of different candidates? For example, Obama supporters are enthusiastic about him and may want to brag about supporting him, therefore his supporters may be more likely to want to be polled. | Read More »

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    About those polls (yeah, never mind. I was either wrong outright or other factors made the point moot.)

    I’ve been thinking about the polls that have Obama winning by anything between 1 and 13% tomorrow. Frankly, as many of you know, I don’t believe them. So I started to look at a few things. Namely, I looked at the %s in the polls by which Obama leads and I looked at the historic turnout rates for them. I then turned to the groups | Read More »

    Being An Optimist Today

    1) The last batch of swing state polls that came from FOXNews/Rasmussen show the closest numbers in a while. This includes McCain leading in FL (+1) and NC (+1). They show a tie in MO and OH. And they show McCain within striking distance in VA (-4) and CO (-4). Data here. 2) The major battleground states narrowed. Look at the RCP graphs to see | Read More »

    Unlocking Those “Pesky” Polls

    I make my living as a certified Six Sigma Black Belt, so statistics are an integral part of my life. Knowing what I know, I am dumbfounded that Poll results are as reliable as they appear to be – at least up to this point. They are more accurate the closer they are taken to an election, which is logical, but this could also reflect | Read More »

    McCain within the MOE in MINNESOTA???

    Survey USA came out with a poll yesterday showing the Presidential race within the margin of error in….MINNESOTA!!!!!! http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f848e0e7-4b37-4480-9248-35238dba01ce Obama: 49%McCain: 46%MOE: 3.9% SERIOUSLY??? Granted, Minnesota is a lot less liberal than many people think (I consider it my adopted state as I went to college there and plan to move back once I finish law school). And granted, the GOP convention was in St. | Read More »

    Let’s Reignite Operation Chaos Tomorrow

    Friends, tomorrow is the day we’ve been focused on for so long. Let’s make it a great day. Let’s reignite Operation Chaos. As you know, the media relies on exit polling to formulate their news coverage of Election Day. Likewise, the campaigns make estimations as the day wears on via exit polls. Lastly, in preparing for the next election’s polling, some pollsters will use exit | Read More »

    Closing the case: four more reasons McCain should win

    In two previous postings, here and here, I have discussed six reasons why Sen. John McCain should emerge victorious in tomorrow’s race for the White House. To recap, they are media bias, oversampling of Democrats by most polling organizations, Obama campaign smugness, his long list of criminal and radical associates, the center-right majority of America’s voters and the uncounted millions of PUMAs hiding under cover, | Read More »

    A Healthy Trend in Pennsylvania

    I can’t tell you who’s going to win Pennsylvania tomorrow, but it seems rather likely that whoever takes the state is probably going to win the White House as well. And if you’re the McCain campaign, the direction of the polls in the state seems to be pretty clear: Take a look at the most recent polls in Pennsylvania: Rasmussen shows McCain shaving a point | Read More »