Shocker Iowa poll shows a big shake up in Iowa
I’ve been saying all along that anything could happen in the Iowa polling during the last month. And, as it turns out, I was right. With two new polls out today, we’re seeing what looks like a very late breaking surge for one candidate. What once was a Donald Trump vs Ted Cruz race, might now be a three-way contest with Marco Rubio. And in | Read More »
Myth BusTED: Ted Cruz actually isn’t falling in Iowa
The results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates. The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics | Read More »
17 days away from Iowa: Can Rubio or Cruz stump Trump?
We’re 17 days from the Iowa caucuses. As Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio look to stump Donald Trump, who currently holds a very slim lead in Iowa and a 15 point margin in the national polling average, let’s compare how Trump stands, with previous frontrunners this far out. Can Trump be beaten this late in the game?
Ted Cruz Leads Donald Trump And the Rest Of the Field In New California Poll
The new Field Poll shows Ted Cruz with a small lead over Donald Trump. Generally, the same trends observed in other polls are apparent here. What makes this poll significant is that it calls Rubio’s campaign strategy into question.
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Poll Round-Up. Trump Leads In National And State Poll. Rubio In Third In Florida
Several new polls came out yesterday: two national and three state polls. On the whole, the national polls tell us very little we didn’t already know. The state polls are a lot more interesting. FoxNews Trump 39, Cruz 18, Rubio 11, Carson 9, Bush 3, Christie 3, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 1, Kasich 2, Paul 3, Graham 0, Santorum 1, Pataki 0 PPP (yeah, I know, | Read More »
PPP Polls Shows Why Issue Polling Is So Unreliable
One of the favorite shticks of Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) is to ask questions designed to make Republican voters look bad. This kind of “troll polling” flatters all the usual sorts of people who love to laugh at what yokels the GOP’s supporters are, and as yet no Republican-leaning pollster has gotten into the regular business of giving Democrats a taste of the | Read More »
The Myth of “4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012″
I have frequently criticized liberal and Democratic commentators for relying on the Static Electorate Fallacy, the idea that the 2016 electorate and results will not stray far from the demographic, geographic and ideological contours of 2012, despite longstanding American electoral history showing that elections following the re-election of an incumbent have always featured shifts in the map to the detriment of the party in power. | Read More »
Diebold Stole My Doobies! Stoners Blame “Stolen” Election
For all of the joy the Left takes in declaring that it has a monopoly on facts and data and faith in both – and its insistence that only racists believe fraud at election time is possible – we’re really only one national election loss away from an outbreak of whackadoo conspiracy theories about Republicans stealing elections. (Actual headline at TPM today: “Princeton Study: U.S. | Read More »
According to the newest polls, Ben Carson is the frontrunner
Polls change. Poll averages lag. But the last six days of polling have been very kind to Ben Carson. Over the last week, Ben Carson has emerged as the new national frontrunner and if this trend continues, Donald Trump will be under enormous pressure to adapt to the new reality.
New Post-debate Poll: Trump still in the lead. Fiorina moves to fourth place.
There is a new poll out from FoxNews that is only interesting for two reasons. First, it indicates that the debate did not move the needle much one way or the other. Second, some of the cross tabs are completely insane. Trump remains in the lead. Trump commands 26 percent support. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, meanwhile, ranks second with 18 percent. Trump led an August | Read More »
Fiorina jumps to second place in new CNN poll
In the first poll released after the Simi Valley GOP candidate debate, Carly Fiorina has catapulted to second place behind Donald Trump: Carly Fiorina has rocketed into second place in the Republican presidential field on the heels another strong debate and Donald Trump has lost some support, a new national CNN/ORC poll shows. The survey, conducted the three days after 23 million people tuned in | Read More »
CBS Buries the Lede in shock New Hampshire poll showing Bernie Sanders at 52%.
That New Hampshire poll showing Bernie Sanders at 52%? CBS turned it into ‘Joe Biden in third place.’
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I expect Donald Trump to do better in Caucuses than in Primaries
Remember Ron Paul? He never had a chance to win the GOP nomination. He was so far outside of the party mainstream, on so many issues, that he was never going to go anywhere. He did however have a strong third place showing in the Iowa caucuses in 2012. The key to understanding how that could be, is to understand the layers of support every | Read More »
The Breakers Broke: A Look Back At The Fall 2014 Polls
As promised in my first cut after the election, a more detailed walk by the numbers through the 2014 Senate and Governors race polling and my posts on the subject to illustrate that the election unfolded pretty much along the lines I projected on September 15, when I wrote that “[i]f…historical patterns hold in 2014, we would…expect Republicans to win all the races in which | Read More »
The 2014 Polls And The 2012 Exit Polls
2014 was, as you have probably heard by now, not the best year for polling; even Nate Silver concluded not only that the polls were skewed to overstate the performance of Democrats, but that it was, on average, tied with 2002 as the second-worst polling year for Senate races since 1990 (the worst was 1998). That couldn’t be predicted before the election, but a major | Read More »