New Congress Polls (KY, NY, NH, NJ)

    Survey USA Poll NY 26 Reynolds (R) Open Seat Lee (R) 48% Kryzan 37% Powers (WF-backed Dem in primary and lost) 5% KY 2 Lewis (R) Open Seat Gruthie (R) 49% Boswell 43% UNH Polls NH 1 Porter (D) Porter 42% Jeb Bradley 45% NH 2 Hodes (D) Hodes 38% Horn 26% Undecided 33% NJ 3 Saxton (R) Open Seat (Stockton College) Myers (R) 37% | Read More »

    Panicking over Polls? Don’t.

    Like many, I’ve been shocked to watch the polls move around during the last couple weeks. And what I find so shocking is that Barack Obama, despite enjoying every possible advantage a candidate for the presidency could wish for in even in his wildest dreams, is not currently 10 or 15 points ahead of John McCain. A massive economic meltdown, hurricanes that supposedly remind voters | Read More »

    Let’s be clear — McCain needs to WIN tonight (and Palin does on [edited] Thursday

    So let’s start with the facts: 1) The polls are drifting toward Obama. I hear the complaints about the make up of the polls, but it doesn’t matter who you look at, they are trending Dem. Rasmussen has Obama at +5 and that should sober you up (or in my case make me consider taking up alcohol). 2) The financial crisis coupled with the gas | Read More »


    As of 9-25-08 Zogby has McCain up by 2 in national polling. More good news in state polling in Pennsylvania McCain – 49.1% Obama – 44.3%, Ohio McCain – 49.8% Obama – 43.9% Virginia McCain – 50.3% Obama – 43.8% Florida McCain – 52.1% Obama – 41.8% Colorado McCain – 47.5% Obama – 45.5% Go McPalin !!!!

    Well Well…Gallup Shows A Tie Again

    So here are the three tracking polls I have been following. As of September 25: Gallup Tracking – Tie , 46 46 Rasmussen Tracking – Obama +3 , 49 46 Battleground Tracking – McCain +1 , 48 47 Everyone buckle your chin straps and hang on.

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    A More Accurate Way To Assess Polling Data

    Here are some new polls released over the last three days on some of the most closely watched Senate, Governor and House races. New Hampshire Senate: UNH = Sununu -4 Rasmussen = Sununu +7 Colorado Senate: Rasmussen = Schaffer -2 Minnesota Senate: Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP = Coleman +7 Oregon Senate: Survey USA = Gordon Smith -2 Washington Governor: Rasmussen = Rossi +6 Strategic Vision = Rossi +2 | Read More »


    Three new Michigan polls: Liberal Media (all but) ignores survey that shows McCain lead

    Cross-posted on Right Michigan at As I read recent poll numbers here in Michigan and across the United States, two things jump right out at me.  First, let’s cut the bologna sandwiches… Barack Obama is clearly surging.  Second, he’s built so big a lead in states like Michigan that his volunteers obviously needn’t worry and can probably take the rest of the election season | Read More »

    ELECTION PROJECTION 9/24: Still a Tie, Obama gaining

    Obama had a surge in the national polls last week, and the state polls now follow. He has expanded his leads in the swing states of Colorado and Wisconsin, and gauged a bit into McCain’s leads in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Obama-leading state polls have outnumbered McCain-leading polls nearly 2 to 1 in the last forty-eight hours…strongly suggesting Obama has fully regained the momentum back | Read More »

    Who Is The Jay Cost Of 2008?

    Jay Cost on his old Horse Race Blog did an outstanding job of breaking down the various polls in 2004. He was invaluable in figuring out which ones were solid and which ones were fluff. Is anyone doing that on a daily or weekly basis in 2008? The constant avalanche of polls is bewildering and bordering on meaningless. Many of the results just don’t scan.

    Senate Polls (NH, ME, CO, and NM Update)

    NH Sununu (R) Ram Poll Sununu 52% Shaheen 45% UNH poll Shaheen 48% Sununu 44% CO Open Seat (R) Udall 48% Schaffer 46% ME Collins (R) SUSA Poll Collins 55% Allen 39% New Mexico Open Seat (R) Note- The NRSC has dropped all plans to air ads in NM

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    View From The North – Polls

    Did you see the Washington Post poll that has Barry up by over 10%. I predicted – not with much insight probably – that the MSM would manipulate and probably go so far ar to flat out lie with poll results to help get Obama elected by depressing Republicans and casting an air of invicibility around the annointed savior of the world. But let’s assume | Read More »


    And now I make fun of ARG’s PA Poll

    (h/t) to Geraghty at NRO for pointing this out. On the heels of my analysis of polling and their value, we have this poll from Pennsylvania showing Obama leading McCain 50% to 46% among likely voters. Whoa there Batman! That looks a lot like Rasmussen’s results, doesn’t it? As they say in the Hertz commercials, “Not exactly”. Their partisan breakdown for this poll is 53% | Read More »

    Congress Race Polls (OH, MO Some Concerns)

    Survey USA Polls on Congress Races OH 1 Chabot (R) Chabot 46% Drichaus 44% Obama is carrying district with 52% vs 43% for McCain OH 2 Schmidt (R) Schmidt 48% Wulsin 40% McCain is carrying district with 58% to Obama 39% OH 15 Pryce Open Seat (R) Kilroy 47% Stivers (R) 42% Eackhart 5% (running on pro life stance) OH 16 Regula Open Seat (R) | Read More »


    Lies, Damn Lies and Polls

    Answer: They don’t Ok, for the ADD folks out there you can go back to reflexively hitting refresh, hoping to get past the 500 errors now (I kid, I kid!). For those of you who need this education again, lets talk about what polling is and what it isn’t. We’ve had a spate of polling data today that is causing interesting reactions among members (Obama | Read More »

    The money quote from Rasmussen, “Looks like 2004″

    Rasmussen and Fox jointly released a slew of state polls last night from battleground states. The results of these polls are: Florida: McCain 51%, Obama 46% Ohio: McCain 50%, Obama 46% Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, McCain 45% Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 48% Michigan: Obama 51%, McCain 44%