Old Dominion Polling Update: Virginia’s Swing State Status

    The latest Survey USA poll of Virginia is getting a bit of attention today, as it shows Barack Obama to still be statistically tied with John McCain in the state – McCain 48, Obama 47, as befits a swing state. The full poll is here. And here’s a little analysis of the situation.

    MI-PRES: Race Narrows, Good News for McCain

    Today, we look at MI. Only one brand new poll, but I’ll tease this into a full expose on MI polling. First, Rasmussen has a new poll from Aug 7 (July 10):McCain 45 (42)Obama 49 (50) To supplement that the most recent other poll is from PPP (D) on July 27 (Jun 22): McCain 43 (39)Obama 46 (48) And the only other pollster active in | Read More »

    George Will: Obama wins in a landslide

    I watched George Will this past Sunday on This Week. He seems to think that the polls we are seeing now are vastly underestimating Obama’s strength because he theorizes that Obama will bring out millions of new young voters and black voters that are not being accounted for in current turnout models that the pollsters are using. George Will thinks the race isn’t really close, | Read More »

    Why the lag or why the same lead

    For the last few weeks, the Polls have been stuck where they are. Inspite of the Celebrity tour of the World, Obama’s lead has stayed where it is or rather, it has shrunk.However, while we gloat over that fact, Sen. John McCain has not taken the lead either. In a way this is nice, as it keeps it close and keeps our candidate with the | Read More »

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    ELECTION PROJECTION 8/4: McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

    All one has to do is read the recent releases from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac to see that McCain has been gaining considerable ground, even in Democratically “safe” states.Hes now up again in Nevada as the trend average moves back nationally in his favor, he’s managed to cut Obamas leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, and has strengthened in several key red states.As the | Read More »

    Daily Polling Shows McCain Gains

    Yesterday, I noted that the two major tracking polls showed a tie in the national race for President. I wanted more recent state polls in order to validate those national result. Today, they started coming in.First, if you add any pollster site to your blogroll, it should be fivethirtyeight. Yes, he’s an Obama supporter but he’s better at working with this data and presenting it | Read More »

    Another bad polling day for Obama(down across the board)

    A couple of polls out today at state level are showing further improvement of McCain’s standing at state level.Survey USA FloridaMcCain 50Obama 44Poor Obama, he has spent over $5 million on ads in this state since primary, and McCain has spent ZERO. Great investment return, and keep it up, Obama.Other polls are conducted in safe blue and red states, nothing particular interessting except the trendline. | Read More »

    Pres-08: Tie Game

    As a poll watcher, it is hard to avoid RealClearPolitics homepage. On it, there is a list of important states that could swing this election. Right now, almost all of those states are tied.National: Obama +2.7Colorado: Obama +1.7Virginia: Obama +1.0Missouri: McCain +2.0Michigan: Obama +4.3Ohio: Obama + 0.5Florida: McCain +0.5Wow. But a couple observations would be prudent. First, McCain needs to win almost all of these | Read More »

    New Polls (Congress Polls MO, WA, IN/MO Gov)

    Survey USA has some new polls up on some key Congress races in NovemberMO 6 Graves (R)Graves 48%Barnes 44%Democrat Challenger Barnes Creeps-Up on Incumbent Republican Graves in MO6: In an election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri’s 6th Congressional District today, 08/01/08, incumbent Republican Sam Graves edges Democrat Kay Barnes 48% to 44%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas | Read More »

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    Rasmussen: KY 49 McCain, 39 Obama

    I was just looking at Rasmussen Reports and I noticed a state poll that could be big trouble for Barack as far as Rasmussen polls go, which as we all know is the most on target of all the polling firms out there. It is from the Bluegrass state where McCain leads Obama by a 49-39%. At first glance you would think this is good | Read More »

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    Rassmussen confirms Obama is in trouble

    Today’s daily Rassmussen tracking poll shows that Obama has the slightest of edges, well inside the margin of error, and has dropped a point or two from Monday. Obama leads 45% to 43%, or 48% to 46% when including leaners. This confirms the trend noted by Gallup, where the “Berlin Bounce” has disappeared in less than a week.But there is a really interesting statistic in | Read More »

    New York Times: “Where’s The Bounce [Dammit]?”

    Wiping the nervous sweat from his brow, Adam Nagourney at the New York Times tries to figure out who misplaced the emperor’s clothes.It is a question that has hovered over Senator Barack Obama even as he has passed milestone after milestone in his race for the White House: Why is he not doing better? [snip]And it is back again as he returns from an overseas | Read More »

    McCain Leads in National Poll, 49-45

    With all the usual caveats on this being only one poll, USA Today/Gallup just published the first poll with McCain in the lead since May 1st. Back then, McCain only lead by one.USA Today/Gallup:McCain 49 (45)Obama 45 (50)That’s an unlikely 9 point shift from “late June.” The most interesting factor seems to be the likely voter screen. McCain leads among Likely Voters 49-45, but “Among | Read More »

    Obama’s bounce gone in an instant

    I’ve mentioned before that I was tutored in the nuances of polling during the 2004 campaign by an actual expert in the field. Today Rassmussen reports that Obama’s big bounce from the Berlin speech has already faded.

    The Media’s Diversity Problem

    The recent Rasmussenpoll finding that now 49% of Americans think the media will try to help Obama win the election has been noted repeatedly in the blogosphere.To add some extra data to back up that finding, here is Fox’s latest national poll on the race. Headline: Obama 41, McCain 40.As I read through the poll qustions, I noticed something I don’t usually see: media bias | Read More »