How To Read Polls During the Convention

    Fivethirtyeight.com has the answer. Based on past conventions, they have modeled how much of a bounce is normal each day based on the beginning of the convention. Today’s trackers (Obama +8 and Obama +4) are based on T, W, and H. That is based around Wednesday which is the third day of the convention. Based on the model, Obama should have a 3.5% bounce. So | Read More »

    Decent Gallup bounce for Obama.

    48 – 42 (+6 Obama) on the Gallup Poll; Rasmussen’s currently tied at 47/47, but the explanatory text suggests that tomorrow’s numbers are going to be more Obama-friendly (they float the concept of a possible ‘modest lead,’ which means… I have no idea). While this technically represents Monday through Wednesday, today’s numbers probably are not taking into account the Wednesday lineup of speakers, which means | Read More »

    Congress Polls (KS, MI)

    MI 7 If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for Mark Schauer the Democrat, Tim Walberg the Republican, Lynn Meadow of the Green Party, or Ken Proctor the Libertarian? TOTAL WALBERG – 43% Republican Incumbent TOTAL SCHAUER – 40%TOTAL MEADOWS – 1%TOTAL PROCTOR – 2% MI 9 If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for | Read More »

    ELECTION PROJECTION 8/25-McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

    FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES. NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the | Read More »

    Mason Dixon Polls Released Today (NM, NV, AZ, CO, WY, UT)

    Mason Dixon released new polls from various Western states: Nevada: McCain 46%, Obama 39% New Mexico: McCain 45%, Obama 41% Arizona: McCain 47%, Obama 41% Colorado: Obama 46%, McCain 43% Wyoming: McCain 62%, Obama 25% Utah: McCain 62%, Obama 23% These polls show very good news for Obama in Colorado and for McCain in Nevada and New Mexico.

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    As expected, VP choice doesn’t matter

    Pretty much no one cares that Biden is the VP nominee for Obama. Of those who do, 13% say it makes them “more likely” to vote for Obama and 10% say it makes them “less likely.” Without seeing the internal numbers, my guess is those 13% are mostly already Obama supporting Democrats who think Biden will help and the 10% are McCain supporting Republicans who | Read More »

    ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

    McCain’s surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions…Obama’s margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000’s Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-New Hampshire is on the verge | Read More »

    A month of presidential polling transition in one table

    Like many other pollsters, Rasmussen rates states as safe XX, likely XX, leans XX or toss up. Today they made their first update in a month. Now I know the slight shifts in race have been well documented here. But, this gives a nice chance to step back and look at the progress of the race as a whole. So without further adieu- State- Former | Read More »

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    Senate Polls (NH, NM, LA, KS- Some Worries)

    A bunch of new Senate Polls and many worries NH Shaheen 51Sununu 40 Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen regained some lost ground and moved further ahead of incumbent Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the states finds Shaheen up 51% to 40% which is enough to qualify Sununu as the most endangered incumbent | Read More »

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    McCain Leads For First Time

    FiveThirtyEight runs a rather unique projection site. Unlike RCP’s crude averages that follow the current state of the race, 538 tries to project the result based on current polls, underlying demographics, and cyclical trends (i.e. when a convention bump happens, 538 will be discounting those numbers). 538 runs a large number of simulations using a calculated probability of winning each state. For the first time | Read More »

    McCain leads, arguably

    RCP’s “no toss up” map shows McCain leading 274-264. It’s the 2004 map with Obama picking up IA and NM. Thus, McCain’s tiny “lead” in VA, CO, and OH is enough to put him over. Reuters/Zogby also announces a telephone polls showing McCain up by 5 today. This is a big change from the last Zogby poll (Obama +7) and shows Obama losing support across | Read More »

    RCP shows McCain ahead for the first time?

    RCP’s rolling polls show McCain with the edge in the EC when all the toss-ups are counted. I believe this is the first time this has happened. The main difference is Indiana finally moving from slightly Obama to slightly McCain. The numbers in the top section are also the closest that I recall seeing.

    Welcome back to swing state status Minnesota

    When Sen. Obama peaked about a month ago in polls, Minnesota seemed to move out of contention. The MN/WI/ND/SD region is known for being more pacific and anti-war than the country as a whole and McCain’s hawkishness is not as big a draw in this area. However, the last three polls show MN back in the margin of error. SUSA:Obama 47 (47)McCain45 (46) Rasmussen:Obama 46 | Read More »

    McCain is in best position since general election began

    Following the best projection pollster site of the cycle, fivethirtyeight, the Obama friendly writer admits that: Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before. The reason is a new | Read More »

    Obama is not underperforming

    So the MSM is so focused on Obama and so surprised that the race is close, there have been a good number of articles pondering: Why is Obama underperforming? I don’t think he is. He is still relatively popular (53/34). He is still ahead in national polls. The most recent head-to-head polls with Obama and non-McCain Republicans, show Obama crushing the Rs: Obama-Romney 49-41; Obama-Huckabee | Read More »