Palin Provides The Bounce; McCain Outdraws Obama In TV Audience

    McCain had a 4.8/7 share to Obama’s 4.3/7. In other words Sarah Palin almost beat Obama and McCain did. Also Real Clear Politics averages shows with the Palin speech factored in the races are in a statistical dead heat 47 Obama and 43.8. Further making the messiah soil his pants is that he is now below 50% to 48% in people believing he is experienced | Read More »

    Congress Polls (AL, NM, MN, and MO)

    New batch of SUSA polls on 3 open Republican House Seats AL 2 Everett Open Seat (R) Love (R) 56% Bright (D) 39% McCain 69% Obama 26% MN 3 Ramstad (R) Open Seat Paulson (R) 44% Madia (DFL) 41% Obama 48% McCain 46% (Bush carried this district with 51%) NM 1 Wilson (R) Open Seat Heinrich (D) 51% White (R) 46% Obama 55% McCain 41% | Read More »

    How Popular is Gov. Palin?

    The McCain team is sending out poll results from a new American Viewpoint poll of 400 RVs. The campaign did not commission this poll. Job Approval for Gov. Palin: 86%Among Independents: 86%Among Democrats: 75% Overall:McCain/Palin 57%Obama/Biden 33% Among Indies:McCain/Palin 50%Obama/Biden 37% Voters who say Energy is Top Issue:McCain/Palin 74%Obama/Biden 18% Who is more qualified, Palin or Obama:Palin 30%Obama 31%Equal 29% Does McCain chose of Palin | Read More »

    ELECTION PROJECTION HIATUS (and a plea to RedStaters)

    As I feel it is foolish to even update a projection in the middle of two conventions’ conflicting bounces, I will, unless otherwise noted, refrain from any updates to my projections until (at the earliest) Tuesday of next week. Polling data from the swing states will only begin to reflect the real winner next week (and methinks thats why PPP, Razzy, Susa, Zomgsby, and the | Read More »

    Obama Gets His Convention Bounce

    Over night, four new polls were released showing Obama up 9, 7, 8, and 6 respectively. The Rasmussen Tracker jumped from Obama +3 the last two day to Obama +6. The other three national polls are not trackers. Importantly, all four polls were taken after the DNC and after the Palin announcement. Contrary to the budding optimistic view that Palin stole the DNC bounce away | Read More »

    Obama Bounce: Biggest Sugar High in Polling History

    Headline one day after DNC convention: Obama’s huge bounce! Headline just after McCain picks Palin for VEEP spot on ticket: A desperate gamble! Headline now: Oops…polls show race back to being even…more people impressed by Palin than Biden Reporters and media pundits are not all leftists but they are all human (though I am willing to be convinced Keith Olbermann is an alien replicant). And | Read More »

    How To Read Polls During the Convention has the answer. Based on past conventions, they have modeled how much of a bounce is normal each day based on the beginning of the convention. Today’s trackers (Obama +8 and Obama +4) are based on T, W, and H. That is based around Wednesday which is the third day of the convention. Based on the model, Obama should have a 3.5% bounce. So | Read More »

    Decent Gallup bounce for Obama.

    48 – 42 (+6 Obama) on the Gallup Poll; Rasmussen’s currently tied at 47/47, but the explanatory text suggests that tomorrow’s numbers are going to be more Obama-friendly (they float the concept of a possible ‘modest lead,’ which means… I have no idea). While this technically represents Monday through Wednesday, today’s numbers probably are not taking into account the Wednesday lineup of speakers, which means | Read More »

    Congress Polls (KS, MI)

    MI 7 If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for Mark Schauer the Democrat, Tim Walberg the Republican, Lynn Meadow of the Green Party, or Ken Proctor the Libertarian? TOTAL WALBERG – 43% Republican Incumbent TOTAL SCHAUER – 40%TOTAL MEADOWS – 1%TOTAL PROCTOR – 2% MI 9 If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for | Read More »


    FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES. NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the | Read More »

    Mason Dixon Polls Released Today (NM, NV, AZ, CO, WY, UT)

    Mason Dixon released new polls from various Western states: Nevada: McCain 46%, Obama 39% New Mexico: McCain 45%, Obama 41% Arizona: McCain 47%, Obama 41% Colorado: Obama 46%, McCain 43% Wyoming: McCain 62%, Obama 25% Utah: McCain 62%, Obama 23% These polls show very good news for Obama in Colorado and for McCain in Nevada and New Mexico.


    As expected, VP choice doesn’t matter

    Pretty much no one cares that Biden is the VP nominee for Obama. Of those who do, 13% say it makes them “more likely” to vote for Obama and 10% say it makes them “less likely.” Without seeing the internal numbers, my guess is those 13% are mostly already Obama supporting Democrats who think Biden will help and the 10% are McCain supporting Republicans who | Read More »

    ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

    McCain’s surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions…Obama’s margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000’s Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-New Hampshire is on the verge | Read More »

    A month of presidential polling transition in one table

    Like many other pollsters, Rasmussen rates states as safe XX, likely XX, leans XX or toss up. Today they made their first update in a month. Now I know the slight shifts in race have been well documented here. But, this gives a nice chance to step back and look at the progress of the race as a whole. So without further adieu- State- Former | Read More »


    Senate Polls (NH, NM, LA, KS- Some Worries)

    A bunch of new Senate Polls and many worries NH Shaheen 51Sununu 40 Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen regained some lost ground and moved further ahead of incumbent Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the states finds Shaheen up 51% to 40% which is enough to qualify Sununu as the most endangered incumbent | Read More »

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