Senate Polls (NH, NM, LA, KS- Some Worries)
A bunch of new Senate Polls and many worries NH Shaheen 51Sununu 40 Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen regained some lost ground and moved further ahead of incumbent Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the states finds Shaheen up 51% to 40% which is enough to qualify Sununu as the most endangered incumbent | Read More »
McCain Leads For First Time
FiveThirtyEight runs a rather unique projection site. Unlike RCP’s crude averages that follow the current state of the race, 538 tries to project the result based on current polls, underlying demographics, and cyclical trends (i.e. when a convention bump happens, 538 will be discounting those numbers). 538 runs a large number of simulations using a calculated probability of winning each state. For the first time | Read More »
McCain leads, arguably
RCP’s “no toss up” map shows McCain leading 274-264. It’s the 2004 map with Obama picking up IA and NM. Thus, McCain’s tiny “lead” in VA, CO, and OH is enough to put him over. Reuters/Zogby also announces a telephone polls showing McCain up by 5 today. This is a big change from the last Zogby poll (Obama +7) and shows Obama losing support across | Read More »
RCP shows McCain ahead for the first time?
RCP’s rolling polls show McCain with the edge in the EC when all the toss-ups are counted. I believe this is the first time this has happened. The main difference is Indiana finally moving from slightly Obama to slightly McCain. The numbers in the top section are also the closest that I recall seeing.
Welcome back to swing state status Minnesota
When Sen. Obama peaked about a month ago in polls, Minnesota seemed to move out of contention. The MN/WI/ND/SD region is known for being more pacific and anti-war than the country as a whole and McCain’s hawkishness is not as big a draw in this area. However, the last three polls show MN back in the margin of error. SUSA:Obama 47 (47)McCain45 (46) Rasmussen:Obama 46 | Read More »
McCain is in best position since general election began
Following the best projection pollster site of the cycle, fivethirtyeight, the Obama friendly writer admits that: Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before. The reason is a new | Read More »
Obama is not underperforming
So the MSM is so focused on Obama and so surprised that the race is close, there have been a good number of articles pondering: Why is Obama underperforming? I don’t think he is. He is still relatively popular (53/34). He is still ahead in national polls. The most recent head-to-head polls with Obama and non-McCain Republicans, show Obama crushing the Rs: Obama-Romney 49-41; Obama-Huckabee | Read More »
ELECTION PROJECTION 8/17-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264
Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election. This is his first lead in my projections in weeks, riding on a trend that has shown him flipping swing states back to his | Read More »
ME SEN: Collins doubles lead over Tom Allen
Rasmussen Reports is showing Maine Senator Susan Collins has more than doubled her lead against her Democrat challenger Tom Allen, 53-38: Maine Senator Susan Collins has more than doubled her lead over Democratic challenger Tom Allen in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. The Republican incumbent is ahead 53% to 38%.When “leaners” are included, Collins leads 55% to 40%.The new | Read More »
ELECTION PROJECTION 8/15- McCain 265 Obama 264
Well back again with another projection update, this one thanks to some new polls from PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA (which hasnt been polling all summer), and Quinnipiac. Since mid-June, McCain has expanded his support in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, flipped Ohio and Virginia, forced Colorado to a tie, and has cut Obamas leads in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Obama has managed to solidify his existing | Read More »
Mind-numbing stupidity about America’s faithful
Justin Ewers of US Snooze & World Report published this interesting bit of selective fact finding/editorializing regarding the surprising shift of self-identified religious voters toward Barack Obama. Here’s the link to the original article.
So the national polls have settled into a holding pattern of Obama +2 to +6. The tracking polls are in that range as well as most national surveys (with the slight exception of Gallup’s recent Obama +7 in a national poll). And most states have not moved much over the last 30 days. FL went from a McCain lead of 2-5 to a toss-up but | Read More »
NC, KY Polls (Pres, Senate Races, Gov Race)
SUSA Polls KY President McCain 55% Obama 37% NC President McCain 49% Obama 45% **US Senate Race Kentucky** McConnell 52% Lunsford 40% North Carolina Dole 46% Hagen 41% Cole (L) 7% Libertarian Puts Speed-Bump On the Road to Elizabeth Dole’s Re-Election Party in NC: In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US | Read More »
Rasmussen shows energy issue has traction for McCain
Last Friday, Rasmussen release a report that hasn’t garnered much attention on the blogs. In this report, Rasmussen found that a substantial majority of the respondants believe that increased production is more important, and that 67% believe McCain, not Obama, shares that view. Here is the key paragraph: By substantial margins, voters believe that McCain’s top priority is finding new sources of energy while Obama | Read More »
Old Dominion Polling Update: Virginia’s Swing State Status
The latest Survey USA poll of Virginia is getting a bit of attention today, as it shows Barack Obama to still be statistically tied with John McCain in the state – McCain 48, Obama 47, as befits a swing state. The full poll is here. And here’s a little analysis of the situation.