First Cut: 7 Polling and Elections Lessons From 2014
Well, Dear Readers, that went well. If you’re like me, you are probably a little sleep-deprived from a truly epic Election Night, and a detailed walk through the data will have to wait a bit (votes are still being counted, so margins of victory will be a bit of a moving target for the next week). But I have expended a lot of time and | Read More »
Final Senate Breakers & Governors Breakers Report November 3, 2014
Here we are: the end of the campaigns. We have likely seen our last polls. And yet, they seem unsatisfying. The mood in 2006 and 2010 was clear: the President’s party was going to suffer, and the only question was how much. That’s true today as well, but in some ways this feels more like the eve of the 2002 election in the sense that | Read More »
Senate Breakers Report October 30, 2014
We come at last to the home stretch, and that means it’s time to consider again what the polls mean, what they can tell us, and what they can’t. The short answer is that we still do not know what is going to happen – but we still have a good deal of evidence to work with, and most of it suggests that Republicans have | Read More »
Governors Breakers Report October 30, 2014
There’s a lot of poll news to digest, five days from the election. Let’s start with the Governors races, which I last examined on October 22. As always, my method – explained at the outset – is to look specifically at the question of, assuming the accuracy of the RCP poll averages, what percentage of the remaining undecided voters would need to break in the | Read More »
Governors Breakers Report October 22, 2014
As promised yesterday, the second half of the latest installment of my roundup of the RCP polling averages (these for the Governor’s races), looking at what share of the remaining undecided vote would need to break in the GOP’s direction to win each race. The overall trend across numerous races since October 1 (even since yesterday, when I started gathering these figures) is positive, but | Read More »
Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014
Since I last looked at the Senate races 11 days ago, the picture of the home stretch has started to come a little more clearly into focus, albeit with a frustratingly large number of undecided voters still showing up in the polls even in states that have already begun early voting. The high number of undecideds is one of several reasons to question the reliability | Read More »
Senate and Governors Breakers Report October 10, 2014
In the ten days since I last looked at the polling in the Senate and Governors races, Republicans have seen some progress in a few races, but the overall steady momentum we had seen throughout September has slowed, and some races have taken a step backwards. Nearly all of these movements have been small, and there remain large numbers of undecided voters in all but | Read More »
Introducing The Senate Breakers Report
Today I’m introducing a quick-and-dirty metric for examining the state of play in the Senate races: the Senate Breakers Report. As I explained eleven days ago, the history of the last six Senate election cycles shows that the final results can and do differ from where the polls stand in mid-September, and the strong tendency has been for the final results to move in the | Read More »
Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races
The perennial question about election polls is back again, if ever it left: how far can we trust them? Should we disregard all other evidence but what the current polling of individual Senate races tells us – which is, at this writing, that if the election was held today, Republicans would gain 6 seats in the Senate to hold a narrow 51-48 majority? As usual, | Read More »
The Democratic Party’s War on Women rhetoric doesn’t seem to be working.
Hey, at least now we know why the Democrats freaked out when Republicans started talking about making birth control pills available over the counter!
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The piecemeal presidency
How bad are President Obama’s poll numbers? So bad that the poll-crazed media has essentially stopped talking about them, as the Media Research Center noticed on Monday. Last week’s cataclysmic Gallup poll was given zero coverage on the Big Three networks. They scarcely bother to report their own partnership polls. That’s quite a contrast with the way polls were used to drive news coverage of the Bush | Read More »
RedState Weekly Briefing: September 7 Obama’s Immigration Politics, A Likely Voter Poll, and an ISIS Strategy? #RSWB
Join us this week on the RedState Weekly Briefing as we discuss the Obama’s Immigration politics, the NBC/Marist likely voter poll, and the Administrations possible ISIS strategy. As always we have Joe Cunningham and Thomas LaDuke joining us. We should be live at about 7:05 Eastern. Enjoy!
Looking in Depth at the Kaiser Obamacare Poll
For those of you not aware, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a poll recently on how people who bought insurance under Obamacare are faring. Unsurprisingly, much of the media has portrayed it as showing a generally positive response to the healthcare law. In particular, they emphasized that about 6 in 10 of the enrollees were previously uninsured. This is all, per the poll, true, but | Read More »
KTSP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota shows Mark Dayton, Al Franken having problems.
The same electoral conditions that are giving Democrats severe electoral headwinds right now are also present in Minnesota.
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