USA 2012 is not +11 D
National and state polls continue to show the future ex-President with a slight lead in key areas. A few points up in OH, VA, WI, NH, and others pointing to Obama running away in PA, MI, and IA. Nationally he maintains a 2-3 point lead in most polls. Governor Romney has flipped the map, but not enough it would appear. Looks like we get four | Read More »
Tags: 2012 election
, Electoral College
Why Romney Will Win (And Handily)
One of the more interesting facets of the election coming up on Tuesday is the fact that both sides seem completely convinced that their guy is winning. It’s natural for liberals to feel that way, especially if they trust the New York Times and Nate Silver’s supposedly-predictive model. Conservatives look deeper and see major cracks in the foundations of the liberals’ sources of confidence, especially | Read More »
Sampling Problems in the Columbus Dispatch OH Poll
The Columbus Dispatch just came out with a new poll in OH on the presidential race showing Obama leading Romney by 50% to 48%. Being the number geek I am, I decided to check through the crosstabs to get a better understanding of what was happening. I came across something very interesting where they reported on how the vote has shifted since 2008. They show | Read More »
Despite what the polls say, Mitt Romney will win by double digits… here’s why
2012 will not be a reprise of 2000. Although Barack Obama is building an army / phalanx of lawyers to try and redirect the election to the courts with the hope that the justices will lean against throwing out a sitting president, it won’t happen. 2000 only happened because the election was so close, with a mere half percent difference between the candidates. In 2012 | Read More »
America Knows that “Leading from Behind” isn’t “Smart Power”
Some time ago the Obama administration introduced the world to a new policy doctrine branded “Leading from Behind.” It’s unclear exactly what is meant by this seemingly contradictory phrase. Perhaps it was intended to illustrate gentle, bipartisan, but firm leadership as the Chief Executive. Perhaps to show that the United States is just one nation among many — not exceptional — with the same voice | Read More »
Tags: apology tour
, double standards
, Foreign Policy
Romney Leads by 11% among Independents, by 1.7% nationally. 5% Undecided.
Washington Dispatch Poll of Polls for October 29, 2012: Romney Maintains Slim Lead Mitt Romney (48.4%) leads Barack Obama (46.7%) by 1.7% nationally heading into the final week of campaigning. Less than 5% of the electorate remains undecided, with self-described independent voters making up the majority of undecided voters. Mr. Romney holds an 11% lead among self-described independent voters, with 10% of independents still undecided | Read More »
The Current Electoral College State of Play
Two weeks before Election Day, all signs point to this being a very tight election. Romney clearly seized the momentum with his debate win two weeks ago – one which Obama failed to stop with his stronger performance last week. Most national polls show Romney with a 2-3 point lead; however, the state polls show an even tighter race. One thing has not changed in | Read More »
Pew Poll Shocking — Because Their Pollster Thought Obama’s Lead Was Huge
Every election cycle, the American people are inundated with polls. Polls with blacks, white, Hispanics, women, Jews, Catholics, young people, and the Asians are disseminated ad nauseam – despite most of them being flawed or so skewed concerning the sample spread that it’s not worth commenting on in any analysis. When Romney hit a slump towards the end of September, which led to his dip | Read More »
No, Mister Presdent. That’s not rain running down my leg….
Those of us who are political junkies and/or those of us who feel that the upcoming election may well be the most important one in American history have been watching the sundry polls which come out every fifteen minutes or so and which usually show the incumbent with a comfortable lead with more than a little angst. None of us wants to see Mitt Romney | Read More »
The “Mitt Romney and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad – and oh, right, tied in Gallup – Month” Weekend Open Thread.
As has been noted here and here… what an awful month Mitt Romney is having. Exhibit A: the Gallup tracking poll for September. Absolutely horrendous. Why, at this rate, Obama for America might even throw Mitt Romney into a… …A… …A briar patch. Open thread. Moe lane PS: The polls go up. The polls go down.
NDPhog’s Ohio Poll Average
As a follow-up to my post about Ohio poll skews, I’ll update this diary (I assume that’s the best method, as opposed to making new posts each time) with every few Ohio polls released. Average of polls used: Obama leads 49-45 with a partisan skew of D+5. Romney wins Independents by 4 points. No way that happens and he doesn’t win the state. Realclearpolitics.com average | Read More »
Examining Ohio Polls
Each time a new Ohio Presidential poll comes out, I like to take a look at the cross tabs, specifically the breakdown of D,R,I. The breakdowns in the last four statewide elections were as follows (always D,R,I – from cnn.com): 2004 (Presidential) – 35,40,25 2006 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – 40,37,23 2008 (Presidential) – 39,31,30 2010 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – | Read More »
A Word About Polls and What They Mean
Statistics are a wonderful thing because they can be interpreted a variety of ways and spun for political advantage. For example, the unemployment rate is pretty straightforward and always has been. Yet, in 2008 the Democratic Party and Barack Obama have “analyzed” the fact that a rate above 8% is improvement. They also have analyzed straightforward economic data to the conclusion that the stimulus, which | Read More »
Voters Want Less Government. Will GOP Communicate to Them?
Amidst the torrent of polling data on an array of political races and policy issues, it is easy to lose focus on the central point of contention in today’s world of politics. The fundamental disagreement between the right and the left is over the proper role of government. The left feels that government should control virtually every aspect of our economy and our lives – | Read More »
The First Likely Voter Poll from Fox News Portends Mostly Good News
Earlier this afternoon Fox News posted their first likely voter poll of the campaign, which shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 45%-44%. Many of us were wondering how the polling would look once the pollsters switch to a likely voter screen – a model which is almost always more favorable to Republicans than a poll of registered voters. This poll of 1,007 likely voters is | Read More »