Daily Kos poll suggests Union movement no match for TEA Party

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 26th at 07:00 PM  | 

By request, I took a look at this poll by PPP for Daily Kos and SEIU. Markos Moulitsas himself is hyping the poll as showing an enthusiasm gap, which of course was one big indicator of the electoral wipeout we saw in 2010. I think that he’s right, to a degree. However I read the figures as having two conclusions: First, the TEA party effect | Read More »

Raese takes a lead in West Virginia

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 21st at 04:30 PM  | 

I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race. And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.

On Missouri and the rejection of the PPACA

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 4th at 10:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.

Unpacking the California Senate polling

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 29th at 06:30 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results. Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as | Read More »

Rubio battles back

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 8th at 02:00 PM  | 

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it. I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

Fisher leads Portman despite Ohio rejecting the PPACA

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 30th at 02:30 PM  | 

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling. The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 24th at 07:01 PM  | 

Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.” But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?

Neck and Neck in New Mexico

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 24th at 02:42 PM  | 

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years. But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

A surprise turn in Wisconsin

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 23rd at 06:38 PM  | 

Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway. But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.

Boxer showing rare vulnerability for a California Democrat

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 21st at 03:39 PM  | 

I always hesitate to analyze the California Senate polling because I have strong feelings about it. I live here. I was engaged in the primary. But this is key to determining how big of a wave, if any, Republicans see in the Senate, so I must try. I’ve given enough time for both parties to settle down after the primaries, so here’s Rasmussen’s latest. Boxer | Read More »

Could None of These win in Illinois?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 18th at 03:11 PM  | 

Elections in Nevada give the voter the choice to vote for “None of These” candidates listed. Every poll I see of the Illinois Senate race suggests to me that if Illinois put that option on the ballot, None of These would win. The next bit of evidence for the pile: PPP’s latest poll of the race.

Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 16th at 04:03 PM  | 

South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.