Polls are back in the news, with the release of four public polls and an internal Gabriel Gomez campaign poll in the June 25 Massachusetts special Senate election to replace John Kerry. 3 of the 4 public polls show Ed Markey with a distinct but still surmountable lead, an average of 6 points; the fourth shows him up by 17 and looks like an outlier, | Read More »
The second part of my 3-part post-mortem on the polls and the 2012 election. See yesterday’s Part I here. IV. Likely vs. Registered Voters A. Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Screen Near the heart of every major polling controversy this year was the issue of sampling and likely-voter screens. Polls traditionally report results among either “all adults” (whether or not registered to | Read More »
After two weeks of positive polling for Romney in Colorado, which had him leading Obama in the Real Clear Politics Colorado average by 0.7%, Public Policy Polling (PPP), the polling firm for the Daily Kos, has come out with a new poll with Obama leading by 3.
Read More »This is very entertaining, because it takes real skill to muck up reporting this PPP poll about Scott Walker’s chances in a hypothetical recall election; fortunately, Joe Conason is up to the challenge. Let’s look at what Conason wrote (bolding mine): Asked whether they would support or oppose [Scott Walker's] removal from office in a recall election, 50 percent said yes and only 47 percent | Read More »
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