Myth BusTED: Ted Cruz actually isn’t falling in Iowa
The results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates. The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics | Read More »
17 days away from Iowa: Can Rubio or Cruz stump Trump?
We’re 17 days from the Iowa caucuses. As Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio look to stump Donald Trump, who currently holds a very slim lead in Iowa and a 15 point margin in the national polling average, let’s compare how Trump stands, with previous frontrunners this far out. Can Trump be beaten this late in the game?
Fox Debate: Did you catch Ted Cruz using the establishment to defend himself?
Last night’s debate’s real utility was in Ted Cruz and Donald Trump jockeying for position in Iowa. Sure other candidates were on stage, notably Marco Rubio as he seeks to survive the first few states, but this was the first genuine, face-to-face clash between Cruz and Trump. And in the fight over Trump’s birther nonsense, Cruz was more than happy to enlist the establishment’s darlings | Read More »
Iowa polling: Is Ted Cruz holding up against Donald Trump?
It’s amazing to me how little polling there actually is of Iowa right now. We’re about two weeks away from the caucuses, but according to Real Clear Politics as of this writing, there have only been six polls this year. So when we’re ‘ooh’ing and ‘ahh’ing at the rough-and-tumble between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, we don’t actually have very many data points to look | Read More »
New Hampshire is Bush’s firewall. What delegates will he get?
While the Iowa caucuses are volatile, and you never know just how the delegates will turn out as rooms full of people get together and make deals, the New Hampshire primary has a simple set of rules for determining the winner. Let’s check the current polling and see who would win delegates there.
The Era of the Senator
The esteemed Dan McLaughlin among others has promoted the idea that Governors are better choices for President than legislators are. And for years, the parties and the electorate seemed to agree. But with cable news and the Internet creating a perpetual conversation about national political issues, we’re now seeing the rise of the Senator as Presidential candidate. I’m not saying Governors are finished, but the | Read More »
Guess which rhetorical tricks Donald Trump used against Ben Carson this week
Donald Trump is worried about Ben Carson. For a while there he was sure he had the GOP nomination wrapped up, as the yes-men surrounding him kept saying “Yes, Mr. Trump, you won the latest poll.” But even the brownest of noses can’t say that with a straight face anymore, so Trump has abandoned his old ‘counterpunch’ strategy and has begun using every dirty rhetorical | Read More »
Dear President Obama: Thank You
Dear President Obama, As someone who has been doing the whole political commentary thing a relatively short time, I have to say that you have done more for my cause than I had ever hoped to accomplish. It’s not so much that I wish the total destruction of the Democratic Party – on the contrary, the Republican Party needs an adversary to keep them to | Read More »
Real Clear Politics confirms Ben Carson is the national GOP Frontrunner
Over a week ago I declared Ben Carson the national GOP frontrunner. I saw a string of polls growing, and while the lagging indicators still gave Donald Trump the edge, I was confident enough to say Carson was on top. Now the lagging indicator is in: the Real Clear Politics poll average now says Ben Carson is winning the polls. Not Trump. Carson.
Since I called Ben Carson the frontrunner, he’s kept winning polls
If this cycle’s history servers, we’re going to have a lag between the debate last night, and the next round of polls after the debate. Pollsters are rushing to get in their polls before the debate, rather than after. It turns out they get more headlines by being part of the debate inclusion criteria, than they do for measuring the results of the poll. So | Read More »
Among Republicans, CNN poll shows a tight race between Trump and Carson
ORC International conducted a poll for CNN asking about the 2016 Republican race. The headline number says Donald Trump 32, Ben Carson 19, and the rest in single digits. Page 29 of the PDF though says that among Republicans, it’s a much tighter race than that.
The Establishment can’t even criticize Trump correctly
My distaste for Trump is well documented at this point, but when I read this evening about Hugh Hewitt’s interview of Donald Trump, I was struck by how terrible Hewitt’s whole line of questioning is. Hewitt – who gave Harriet Miers a “solid B+” and thought that was good enough – has essentially declared that Al Gore would have been a better President than George | Read More »
A look at the GOP Presidential polling four and eight years ago
It’s often misunderstood what polls do. Some are under the false impression that the purpose of a poll is to predict the election results. That’s not quite true, though close to the election, the difference doesn’t matter. However this far out, the difference means everything. Polls measure the current feelings of the electorate. The further out you get from the election, the more detached the | Read More »
In defense of Ben Carson on the Border
Dennis Welch, local reporter for KTVK-TV in Arizona, made an outrageously worded report on Twitter about Ben Carson which he clarified right after. This report (I assume by design) sparked a wave of outrage against Ben Carson on Twitter. However I think that he’s probably right on border security, and here’s why.
Trump was for de Blasio before he was against him
Right now socialist New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is conducting a one man Jihad against Donald Trump, but the fact is, before Trump decided to run for President, Trump was a big fan.
Read More »