PPP’s polls were rigged all along
New York Magazine was trying to be sympathetic to the popular polling figures on its own side of the political, but let out a secret in the process: Public Policy Polling cooked the books all along.
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PPPPlease…. PPP’s Colorado Poll Versus Reality
After two weeks of positive polling for Romney in Colorado, which had him leading Obama in the Real Clear Politics Colorado average by 0.7%, Public Policy Polling (PPP), the polling firm for the Daily Kos, has come out with a new poll with Obama leading by 3.
Read More »Conflicting polls in the Massachusetts Senate Race
I’m happiest when all the polls in a race match up. It means we have a very good idea of how a race is going for the candidates in it. So, naturally, I’m not happy about the Massachusetts Senate race right now. Seeing a 10 point swing from poll to poll, giving both candidates opposing 5 point leads, means we have to dig deeper to | Read More »
Steelman over 50% vs McCaskill in Missouri
I’m glad that we’re now starting to have a better idea of the shape of the Senate race, as we settle down on who the candidates are going to be, and how they’re polling against incumbents (or each other, in the case of open seats). Soon I will update my Senate projections with actual data. In the meantime, we’ve got the first Missouri Senate poll | Read More »
The Maine problem the Democrats face in 2012
Senate polling comes and goes lately, and primary polling is even harder to get. Pollsters seem to get more attention when they make these premature Presidential general election matchups. But we got some Maine Senate polling from PPP just in time to get wind of some possible machinations in that race. Could Democrats be clearing the way for independent Angus King?
Mittmentum moves to Ohio, Gingrich leads Georgia on a true Super Tuesday
The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three. Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.
Primary Day update of Michigan and Arizona
Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum. I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.
Primary Day in New Hampshire
I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses. Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa
According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night. Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in | Read More »
Debunking PPP in Iowa
I’ve been telling people PPP’s polling Iowa was making nonsense predictions. The pollster has doubled down. I’m going way out on a limb here, and if the actual results refudiate what I’m saying then I’m going to have to take some taunting, but I just don’t see how this poll remotely reflects reality, and I’m flatly saying it’s not predictive of the caucus results.
No, Ron Paul is not a threat to win the Iowa Caucuses
It doesn’t matter what you think the new Public Policy Polling result says. It doesn’t matter how many gleeful Democrats are writing up news stories claiming it’s true. It’s not. Ron Paul, King of Earmarks, Full Metal Truther, and Archbishop of the anti-American Gnostic Constitutionalists, is not going to win the Iowa caucuses or even get close for one simple reason. He wins people who | Read More »
All eyes turn to Rick Perry
Attacks on Rick Perry, new Presidential candidate and sudden poll leader, have begun to mount. He will soon take the stage in a debate against the other candidates. His opponents in both parties are determined to leave a mark on him. Let’s take a look at where he’s at as the pressure grows.
Has Brad Carson fallen behind in Oklahoma?
By request, we look at a 2012 House race today. PPP polled Oklahoma’s second district for the Friends of Brad Carson. Carson, a Democrat, of course won this seat previously in 2000 and 2002, giving it up in 2004 in a failed Senate run. Dan Boren, also a Democrat, won the seat in 2004 and has held it ever since. Boren is retiring, so Carson | Read More »
Tags: 2012, Brad Carson, dan boren, George Faught, House, Ken Corn, OK-02, Oklahoma, public policy polling, Requests
Daily Kos poll suggests Union movement no match for TEA Party
By request, I took a look at this poll by PPP for Daily Kos and SEIU. Markos Moulitsas himself is hyping the poll as showing an enthusiasm gap, which of course was one big indicator of the electoral wipeout we saw in 2010. I think that he’s right, to a degree. However I read the figures as having two conclusions: First, the TEA party effect | Read More »
Tags: 2012, ARRA, Barack Obama, Daily Kos, Enthusiasm, Markos Moulitsas, PPACA, President, public policy polling, SEIU, tea party, Unions
Of a certain Mississippi poll on marriage, and of those who make hay of it
Normally when I come across a poll to analyze, I’ll put on my impartial poll analysis hat and run it both at RedState and UnlikelyVoter. However seeing this new push poll by Public Policy Polling and the shamefully credulous response by Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway, I don’t want to hold back. I want to tell it like it is, and why unless some | Read More »
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