Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott. With one | Read More »
Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race. All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.
From Unlikely Voter: PPP has delivered a poll on the Missouri Senate race for Daily Kos, and I’m seeing genuine anger at the results, which are now filtered for those likely to vote in November. As Kos says, “So what’s going on? Our old friend, the intensity gap.”
From Unlikely Voter: I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted. A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.
From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have. I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.
From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.
From Unlikely Voter: When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too. Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results. Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll. I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.
We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP. Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.
With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie. Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?
We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling. The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.
Elections in Nevada give the voter the choice to vote for “None of These” candidates listed. Every poll I see of the Illinois Senate race suggests to me that if Illinois put that option on the ballot, None of These would win. The next bit of evidence for the pile: PPP’s latest poll of the race.
PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose. So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.
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