I’m late. No excuses. Let’s go. So the courts threw out Verizon’s challenge of Net Neutrality, rejecting the very clever argument made by Verizon that it wasn’t premature. So now we wait for the actual publication of Net Neutrality to take place. Well, to a point. The Republicans aren’t waiting and will vote this week in the full House to repeal Net Neutrality under the | Read More »
The New York Times’ Nate Silver is now going after Rasmussen Reports again. After the primaries he said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries. According to Silver’s own chart though, Rasmussen polled twice as often as the second place firm, and is still Silver’s primary target. Funny that.
As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome. That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. | Read More »
I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling. I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, | Read More »
For a while now I’ve been calling the Nevada Senate race tied. Before the primary, Repbublican Sharron Angle led comfortably. Right after the primary, Democrat Harry Reid won 9 of 10 polls. Then came a stretch of polls in the last few weeks of September which included 3 Reid leads, 3 Angle leads, and 2 ties. That was what I easily called a tied race. | Read More »
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old. So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for | Read More »
Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried. Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry | Read More »
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »
Back when Democrat Patty Murray got several good polls all at once, taking nearly double digit leads over Republican Dino Rossi in the Washington Senate race, I didn’t think it was a fundamental shift of public opinion. I called it a “good week,” and when her leads dropped, I said the race was returning to a tie. The new Rasmussen suggests I was right and | Read More »
Wisconsin is traditionally the most Progressive state in America. Progressives win there. Progressives have long won there. Progressives have won there even in years when they lost in much of America. Wisconsin even went in for the La Follette-founded Progressive Party, making it a highly successful third party within the state for about a decade. So I’m just at a loss for words as to | Read More »
Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there. But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.
I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time. Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed | Read More »
Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive. So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and | Read More »
Rasmussen Reports polled the hypothetical three way matchup for Alaska Senate between Republican Joe Miller, Democrat Scott McAdams, and newly minted independent Lisa Murkowski. This is clearly the best case scenario for Murkowski as she actually won’t be on the ballot, but even in this case, the result is not changed from the previous poll.
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