Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race | Read More »
I’m sensing great interest in recent Washington polling. The Elway Poll I’m going to ignore for now, as I’ve picked it apart in the past, and Real Clear Politics had a note on it as well, so I’ll look more closely at the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows Democrat Patty Murray retaking the lead from Republican Dino Rossi.
If I’m going to break my rule and talk about Delaware right away, then I might as well do the same and cover the new Rasmussen poll on New Hampshire, which is the first post-primary poll of that Senate race between Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes. For a while there it wasn’t sure we’d get this matchup after all, but here we | Read More »
Candidates matter. Even in a wave year, some candidates on the losing side will have no trouble. Dianne Feinstein was an example of that in 1994, and Democrat Ron Wyden appears to be one in 2010, as he is comfortable over Republican Jim Huffman in the latest SurveyUSA poll even as that poll and the Riley poll both have Republican Chris Dudley highly competitive for | Read More »
I normally like to let these races rest a week before I start looking into the polling, but thanks to one pollster sitting on a pre-primary poll to drop the bomb after the primary, I thought I’d hit today the actual first post-primary poll of the race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell.
Real Clear Politics showed 21 polls yesterday, plus we’re already at 5 today, so I’m grateful that some of them can be done in batches as with this bunch on the Nevada Senate race from Ipsos for Reuters, Rasmussen Reports, and POR for Fox News. If we color Republican advantages in red, leads for Democrats in blue, and ties in green, then this set is | Read More »
Quinnipiac has released this month’s poll for the Connecticut Senate race. Now we turn to those who say Rasmussen’s “House Effect” is repsonsible for Democrat Richard Blumenthal’s surprisingly weak leads against Republican Linda McMahon, because Quinnipiac has the race even closer than Rasmussen does.
Normally when I’m skeptical of a poll it’s because it’s from a firm I don’t trust or because I don’t think its methodology makes it predictive of the actual election. But here we have Rasmussen Reports polling likely voters, and it’s by far the best poll I’ve seen for Republican Richard Burr in the North Carolina Senate race against Democrat Elaine Marshall.
It’s already bad enough for Democrat Robin Carnahan that she hasn’t led a poll this year, but since primaries Republican Roy Blunt’s lead has been growing. In the likely voter polls he now leads by 6, 7, and now 10 in the latest Rasmussen.
I’m definitely a latecomer to following the Delaware Senate primary between Republicans Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell, but now that I’m aware of it, it’s striking to me just how differently the two candidates perform in the new Rasmussen poll featuring each candidate against Democrat Chris Coons.
When the first major post-primary poll came out for the Washington Senate race, some questioned whether it was skewed toward Republican Dino Rossi over Democrat Patty Murray, or if it was simply an outlier. But now we have confirmation that Rossi does appear to have a lead at this point, though perhaps not as large as SurveyUSA showed.
All the talk in your typical Senate analysis this year has assumed Republican Mike Castle will beat Democrat Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race, but the fact is there’s still a GOP primary in progress. It’s forgivable to forget about that primary when polling of the primary is scarce, and PPP and Rasmussen hold Coons under 40, but let’s extrapolate from the PPP poll | Read More »
It seems like most of the third party and independent spoilers this year are harming Democrats, but the Constitution Party’s Tom Tancredo is clearly hurting Republican Dan Maes in the Colorado Governor’s race, currently throwing the lead to Democrat John Hickenlooper. But two new polls on that race, from Magellan Strategies via Real Clear Politics and Rasmussen Reports are so different that I think we | Read More »
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »
There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls. Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event | Read More »
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