When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout. He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.
Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina. I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.
So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally. But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
Some Senate seats I’ll worry about all the way to November, but today when I looked at the list of new polls out, I got a flood of races I’m pretty comfortable calling for the Republican, barring any new news of course.
Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race. All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.
From Unlikely Voter: According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.
From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen. But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up. So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have. I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.
From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.
From Unlikely Voter: Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50. Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too. Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe. Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.
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