Ted Cruz in South Carolina: Commanders shouldn’t worry about “gluten-free MREs”
Now that the GOP race has moved out of the left-wing northeast, where Donald Trump shined, Ted Cruz is back in motion, getting bold when speaking to crowds in South Carolina. Like fellow conservative Marco Rubio, who’s also showing gains in the state, Ted Cruz is making it clear that if he were President, America would have a stronger military ready to keep our country | Read More »
Democrats still uncomfortably waiting for GOP defections on Supreme Court nominations.
Senate Republicans are not backing down on refusing Obama any more Supreme Court nominations. Behold the salutary power of fear.
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Republican turnout beats Democratic turnout in New Hampshire.
Democratic turnout in New Hampshire was down; Republican turnout was up. This is great news.
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New Hampshire proves it: The establishment hates this guy!
There’s been a lot of jousting this cycle about who’s establishment, who’s an outsider, and who can shake up Washington and the Republican Party. But now that the PAC money has been spent, and the voters have spoken in Iowa and New Hampshire, we now know who the establishment likes, and who they hate.
The UMass tracking poll of New Hampshire is bad news for Donald Trump
So we now have two tracking polls in New Hampshire. ARG is also running a tracker (one that adores John Kasich, for some reason), but today I’m going to draw our attention back to the UMass tracker. It’s showing movement for the second tier of candidates that’s different from before. Different in a way that’s bad news for Donald Trump.
The ABC/IJR debate lineup for Saturday.
ABC News will have seven people on the debate stage Saturday. They should have, really, only five.
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New Hampshire Tracking poll: Guess who fell today?
Since the Harper poll of New Hampshire is pretty bad (landline only, “The fav/unfav numbers are so absurd it has to be a transcription error – Jay Cost, “That poll looks weird” – Harry Enten), we’ve still only got the UMass tracking poll to work with. And in the tracking poll, one candidate is even, one is down, and one is up.
New Hampshire Momentum: Marco Rubio gaining fast
UMass and 7News have started a New Hampshire tracking poll. That’s nice because it gives us daily feedback on the race, letting us catch sharp changes in the polling. That’s where Marco Rubio comes in. He may not have won Iowa, but for his campaign it was as good as a win.
My take: Iowa Winners and losers
So according to the Decision Desk, the candidates who won the Iowa caucuses were Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz. But who really won and lost tonight?
, bernie sanders
, Donald Trump
, Fox News
, Hillary Clinton
, Jeb Bush
, Marco Rubio
, Megyn kelly
, Right to Rise PAC
, Ted Cruz
Must See: Donald Trump’s character distilled in one photo
Donald Trump told ABC of his daughter “I don’t think Ivanka would do that [pose nude], although she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.” That joke is bad enough, but wait until you see this photo of the pair together.
This is one poll result Donald Trump isn’t going to crow about
Pew Research did a poll about the 2016 Presidential candidates, but they didn’t look to see who’s winning or losing. They asked opinions about the candidates and religion, and the results are not looking good for Donald Trump as the Iowa caucuses approach.
What happens when you make an ad full of Donald Trump’s own words?
What you get when you use Donald Trump’s own words against him, is a devastating new attack ad, of course. This one’s in Iowa, in the final days before the caucuses. I’m very interested to see if this one leaves a mark. If Trump underperforms, thank Ted Cruz.
Myth BusTED: Ted Cruz actually isn’t falling in Iowa
The results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates. The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics | Read More »
17 days away from Iowa: Can Rubio or Cruz stump Trump?
We’re 17 days from the Iowa caucuses. As Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio look to stump Donald Trump, who currently holds a very slim lead in Iowa and a 15 point margin in the national polling average, let’s compare how Trump stands, with previous frontrunners this far out. Can Trump be beaten this late in the game?
Iowa polling: Is Ted Cruz holding up against Donald Trump?
It’s amazing to me how little polling there actually is of Iowa right now. We’re about two weeks away from the caucuses, but according to Real Clear Politics as of this writing, there have only been six polls this year. So when we’re ‘ooh’ing and ‘ahh’ing at the rough-and-tumble between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, we don’t actually have very many data points to look | Read More »