If I were a national Republican operative, I’d be very worried about tonight. If I were a Mitt Romney fan, I’d be ecstatic. The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals. He won where people live. Gingrich won the panhandle and largely tied in the few northern Florida population centers, but it was Romney’s | Read More »
Mitt Romney will win Florida tonight. The victory is already locked in. Early voting, etc. have helped. Here’s what I’m looking for in Florida. The margin of victory by Romney. Polling has Romney between 10 and 12 points ahead. So if he is 9 points ahead or less, given that he has one hell of a ground game here, that suggests Gingrich was able to | Read More »
This morning I noted that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich together get more votes than Romney and several polls out in the past few weeks have had Santorum votes going to Gingrich. That has been the convention wisdom. About two weeks ago I decided the conventional wisdom was wrong, but having been told for two weeks I was wrong, I made the mistake of sticking | Read More »
“It’s like we’re facing Jimmy Carter and nominating Alf Landon.” More and more polls show two things: (1) tonight Mitt Romney will win Florida and (2) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will combined get more votes. In fact, moving forward, the Romney campaign will probably engage in a concerted effort to prop up Rick Santorum because as long as he stays in the race, Gingrich | Read More »
It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid. Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.
I’m biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I’d say that even if they didn’t send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . | Read More »
“Mitt Romney conveys all the business acumen of a co-CEO of Research in Motion, both of whom are themselves losing their jobs.” A friend of mine pointed out this morning that Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich $7 million to $.0008 million in Florida just to watch his 15 pt lead implode overnight. The Republican base does not trust Mitt Romney. Because they do not | Read More »
When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed. Rasmussen provided the confirmation.
Download Podcast | iTunes | Podcast Feed On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech discuss Newt Gingrich’s win in South Carolina, what his victory means for Florida’s upcoming primary, and whether or not the GOP could have a brokered convention. We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you | Read More »
Never you mind how said training video was acquired, and/or which campaigns are going to use it to inform their operating methodology: that part’s not important. What’s important is that this is how the next week is going to look, in the run-up to the Florida primary:
I can confirm tonight from multiple sources that phone calls are in fact occurring between Republicans in Washington and among evangelical leaders to raise money for Rick Santorum rapidly. The sources tell me that this is not for a Santorum win, though the evangelicals I spoke to continue to hope it is possible. This is to stop Newt Gingrich. One evangelical leader I spoke to | Read More »
There’s been a lot of talk, maybe too much talk, about the struggle between the GOP “Establishment” and “Outsiders,” sometimes – but sometimes not – meaning the Tea Party, however defined. There are many fault lines, wheels within wheels, that divide different groups on the Right, but it’s time to clarify the core issue that has people of perfectly conservative temperament and ideology scratching their | Read More »
“The evangelical movement might have just sown the first seeds of division for 2016 — seeds that, like in 2008 and 2012, prevented evangelicals from getting one of their own the nomination.” I had the privilege to attend the meeting of evangelicals in Texas this weekend. Due to pressing matters before me Saturday I could not make the Saturday portion, but was there Friday hearing | Read More »
InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa. At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.
Despite strident opposition from supporters who maintain that Rick Santorum is a “true conservative” in the mold of – you guessed it – Ronald Reagan, the already huge mountain of evidence that he is, at heart, a ‘big-government conservative’ continues to grow. As Erick noted previously, in 2008 Santorum said: This whole idea of personal autonomy, well I don’t think most conservatives hold that point | Read More »
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