On the USC/LA Times poll of California
This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.
, American Viewpoint
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
, Jerry Brown
, Likely voters
, Los Angeles Times
, Meg Whitman
Is Jack Conway surging in Kentucky?
The last SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race showed Republican Randal Paul running away with it from Democrat Jack Conway. However the new one tells a completely different story in its top line. When two polls by the same firm of the same race differ by that much, there has to be a story behind the story. Fortunately SurveyUSA’s detailed public reports make it | Read More »
This Week in Washington – September 27, 2010
The House has no votes scheduled for Monday and 63 suspension votes scheduled for Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday the House is expected to consider H.R. 847, the James Zagroda 9/11 Health and Compensation Act, H.R. 2378, the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, and the Senate Amendment to H.R. 3081, the State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Act. The Senate Amendment will be a continuing resolution to keep the | Read More »
Robin Carnahan “running an outdated 2006 campaign”
In the 2010 campaign for U.S. Senator from Missouri, it’s ironic that MO Sec’y of State Robin Carnahan would criticize Rep. Roy Blunt for connecting her to President Barack Obama, when she seems intent on connecting Blunt to a GOP congress that hasn’t existed for four years. This, in an election that has been identified by virtually every major media outlet as a “referendum on | Read More »
Carly Fiorina blasts “Call me Senator” Boxer on television
Here we go. Just when I started to think she needs to kick things up a notch, Carly Fiorina has taken to the air against Babs Boxer statewide. The ad is called “Sir,” and introduces all Californians to Ma’am’s incredible arrogance:
Three new polls on the New York Special
A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.
Republican bounces in New York?
Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive. So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and | Read More »
Daily Kos checks on Wisconsin
Along with West Virginia, Wisconsin I wanted to see more polling in. Rasmussen Reports has been the lone voice up there polling again and again, showing these key races competitive while the rest of the polling world passed on by. PPP went there for Daily Kos finally, and now we get that critical second opinion on the races to see if they are as competitive | Read More »
Dick Blumenthal (D CAND, CT-SEN) lies on cap-and-trade support.
Lying, in fact, is the best-case scenario. What happened is that Dick Blumenthal, when asked point-blank whether he supported cap-and-trade, told a constituent ‘no.’ Surprisingly unambiguously, as the video below shows: Note the ‘cap-and-trade is dead’ bit: it’ll be important later.
Raese takes a lead in West Virginia
I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race. And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.
Murkowski on the ballot would not threaten Miller
Rasmussen Reports polled the hypothetical three way matchup for Alaska Senate between Republican Joe Miller, Democrat Scott McAdams, and newly minted independent Lisa Murkowski. This is clearly the best case scenario for Murkowski as she actually won’t be on the ballot, but even in this case, the result is not changed from the previous poll.
Today in Washington – September 21, 2010
The House is not in session today. The Senate will debate and vote on the motion to proceed to S.3454, the Department of Defense Authorization bill at 2:15 today. If cloture is invoked on the motion to proceed to the Defense Authorization bill, expect debate and vote on Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the DREAM Act (an immigration measure) and abortions at military hospitals. There are rumors | Read More »
It’s not us who should be afraid about California
Last month there was a real shift in the California Senate polling. After the primary Babs Boxer was terribly underperforming her past elections, but she was at least ahead consistently. But starting in August, Carly Fiorina started taking leads. Some say that the new PPP poll is reason to worry, but I don’t. PPP is a generally honest, reliable pollster in my experience, but that | Read More »
Johnson and Walker extend leads in Wisconsin
Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race | Read More »
Checking in on Washington
I’m sensing great interest in recent Washington polling. The Elway Poll I’m going to ignore for now, as I’ve picked it apart in the past, and Real Clear Politics had a note on it as well, so I’ll look more closely at the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows Democrat Patty Murray retaking the lead from Republican Dino Rossi.