The Virginia state legislature is fast becoming the nation’s leader in fighting the abortion holocaust. Last summer abortion clinics were required to meet standards appropriate to a medical facility rather than those resembling a chicken factory. A personhood bill is moving forward which will recognize what anyone who passed high school biology already knows, that a fetus is a separate and distinct human being. But the bill that has the left in a tizzy is one that strikes directly at the market for the abortionists’ sales pitch: women who have just discovered they are pregnant. As a result the Virginia GOP is being treated just by the abortion lobby the same way a rehab clinic operator would be treated by drug pushers.

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I listened to as many speeches as I could stomach during CPAC this past weekend, perched at my chair in Bloggers’ Row. I would say that the CPAC attendees had found their candidate, if my ears were correct.

The straw poll didn’t fall in line with that though. I thought Rick Santorum has the highest response from any of the three candidates, with Gingrich and Romney rating equally (though i did have to stifle a guffaw at the “severely conservative” remark.

It seemed fairly obvious to me that Romney copied the Paul playbook to bus in a lot of supporters to vote, but it scares me to think that out of 11,000 attendees, only about 4,000 voted in the straw poll. Hellllloooooooooooo?

I think Santorum did well in marshaling support to go forward and stuffing a war chest as much as possible to compete going forward. He clearly seems to be the momentum candidate now, while I have to wonder if Newt’s campaign even has enough resources to make it to Super Tuesday to fully compete in every state. He won’t have any debates to wrest the spotlight back onto him, and might have a hard time finding large donors to continue funding SuperPACs on his behalf (as Adelson did for him in Nevada).

Truly, I wonder if we haven’t just seen the final consolidation of the field into a real two-man race, and the endorsement of Santorum as the not-Romney option.

For anyone hoping to stop the Romney option in Virginia on Super Tuesday, remember – as much as it might sicken you, you might have to pull the lever for Ron Paul if you don’t want to see Romney pick up almost all those delegates. It doesn’t get you the perfect candidate – not yet – but it could help.

Virginia may very well prove to be an early predictor of results on Election Day 2012. Obama desperately needs to hang onto Virginia’s 13 electoral votes in order to be reelected. Although he would still have a path to victory, especially if he manages to retain a Pennsylvania or Ohio (although I am putting them in the GOP column at this point), it would create greater pressures on his chances in North Carolina or Florida. I still firmly believe this race will come down to Florida, especially since they get two extra electoral votes in 2012. However, the vital importance of Virginia cannot be taken for granted.

In 2008, Obama won Virginia with 52.6% of the vote. A close analysis of that election indicates that there was a lot of red territory on the map of this state. Where Obama concentrated on was the more “liberal” areas of the DC suburbs and other growing urban areas of the state. The only highly populated counties he won outside the DC area were Ablemarle in the north central part of the state and Montgomery County in the southwestern part of the state. Obviously, this will be his strategy going forward in 2012. Any Republican inroads in these areas will eat away at that 52.6% vote count and spell trouble for Obama. Polling out of the DC suburbs especially must be closely monitored. Also, note that the GOP does not have to win these areas, just make them close to prevail.

With a hotly contested Senate race coupled with some interesting House races along with a fairly popular Republican governor and an Attorney General at ground zero in the Obamacare case, Obama has a lot of work to do in Virginia. When assigning these electoral votes, I generally look to approval ratings from a variety of sources in the particular states. For Virginia, he stands at 47.5%. Generally, that is close enough to push him over the 50% of the vote threshold for victory. The trend in Virginia mirror those nationally. Not to burst the bubble of anyone, but at this point I would have to assign Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to Obama.

The Senate race was made interesting when incumbent Jim Webb decided not to run. There were inklings since he ceased fund raising. Some polling indicated that he would have problems in light of GOP gains in 2010. Some polls even showed him trailing George Allen. That then left the door open for Tim Kaine to enter the race. He is the former head of the DNC and also a popular former Governor of Virginia succeeding Mark Warner. His tenure as governor certainly does not cast him as a liberal, but more of a centrist. He opposes abortion, but does not call for over-ruling Roe vs. Wade. Although opposed to capital punishment, he resided over 11 executions. His accomplishments as mayor of Richmond cannot be overlooked either. Still, his electoral history is one of winning close elections on a statewide basis.

With minimal token primary opposition, Kaine should enter the general election rather unencumbered. He has a rather sizable war chest and his connections when head of the DNC should provide additional money as needed. Since he was tapped by Obama to run the DNC, that could have its advantages, or disadvantages depending on which way the political winds are blowing in October 2012 in Virginia. Only Courtney Lynch, a consultant, has been mentioned as a possible outsider type roadblock to his candidacy especially since the more popular ex-congressman, Thomas Perreillo declined to run after Kaine announced he would run.

On the Republican side is former Governor, congressman, and Senator George Allen. In 2000, he won the Senate seat by defeating incumbent Chuck Robb. His voting record was fairly conservative while a Senator. In 2006, he ran for reelection against Webb and was moving towards another term until the infamous “macaca” incident. It will not be recounted here as I am sure it will throughout this campaign. Technically speaking, Allen fits the mold of a good fit also for Virginia. The only real knock on him is these comments- some real, but others unsubstantiated.

Unlike Kaine, Allen will face a tougher primary challenge. Some polls put Allen way up, even against the generic “more conservative” choice. Bob Marshall of the Virginia house of delegates is one person. However, the one I find interesting and intriguing is the head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, Jamie Radtke. From everything I have heard and read, if I were a Virginia resident, I would give her a good long look (and I am not necessarily a booster or cheer leader for the Tea Party). Since Virginia opted for a primary, the advantage goes to Allen. Still, keep an eye on Radtke in the future.

In hypothetical polling thus far, there is tremendous back and forth. Interestingly, when a state senator, Allen represented Ablemarle County and that could pull votes from Obama there. Of course, both candidates are well known to Virginia voters. Many decisions will be last minute. However, if I had to, I think the advantage at this point currently lies with Kaine. Thus, and this could change with the wind, the seat should remain in Democratic hands.

The current House delegation is 8-3 Republican. Population changes within the state mandated changes in boundaries with the overall effect being not a GOP over reach, but making sure incumbents were protected. The 1st District, comprised of the Tidewaters region, gained Caroline County, but lost Hampton and Newport News. Incumbent Rob Wittman should win reelection here. Likewise, Randy Forbes in the 4th is more safe as his district now extends from the North Carolina border to the suburbs of Richmond, but loses the Democratic stronghold of Petersburg and parts of Suffolk. Robert Goodlatte’s 6th District extends along the West Virginia border and includes some of the most conservative areas of the state including Lynchburg. Eric Cantor will win in the 7th. Finally, 10th District representative Frank Wolf has an area that stretches from the DC exurbs to the West Virginia and Maryland borders. He received more conservative territory, but some that could open him to a primary challenge in the future, or a strong Democratic challenger. In 2012, it will a former Assistant Secretary of the Navy, John Douglass.

That leaves three Democratic districts and three held by freshmen Republicans. Bobby Scott’s Third District is the only minority one in the state. Before redistricting, it was 53% minority and 60% afterwards. That has brought on a chorus of subtle racism innuendo and assertions that the state is concentrating blacks in one district. However, that district was 64,000 under the ideal and thus added Hampton, Norfolk and Newport News as well as Petersburg. The 8th- the bulk of the DC suburbs including Alexandria and Arlington- should be an easy win for Jim Moran. And Gerry Connolly’s 10th, which includes Fairfax and the far western suburbs of DC, became more Democratic.

As for the freshmen Republicans, the 2nd changes little and includes the western shore and Virginia Beach. Scott Rigell, the strongest of the freshmen, remains vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger in the future, but not this year. The 5th- held by Robert Hurt- grew and now extends from the North Carolina border to Fauquier County, a fast growing suburban county. Finally, the Ninth is represented by Morgan Griffith and comprises the southwestern area of the state which is very conservative territory and should remain in his hands.

In conclusion, this is a state so close on the edge that a minor event one way or the other can change outcomes. Although I predict an Obama win in Virginia, it will be very close. If the electoral vote is very close, the results in Virginia may be fodder for a recount. Also, I think Tim Kaine will prevail, again by a very small margin. The only area where a prediction can be made with any confidence is with the House races where the current 8-3 makeup should prevail.

Running count thus far:
Obama with 246 electoral votes to 223 for the GOP
net gain of 2 Governors;
net gain of 4 Senate seats, and;
net loss of 7 House seats.

Next: North Carolina

UPDATED: As I note here, Jamie Radtke insists through her lawyer and the press that she was not drinking, so you’ll have to ignore the reviews of those spectators who saw her performance and thought she had been. That, of course, raises other questions about her abilities on the campaign trail to give that performance sober.

———————————–I was fortunate not to witness Jamie Radtke’s speech at the RedState Gathering. Fortunate because . . . well . . . here are reviews of her speech from various witnesses to the train wreck, one of which was a link to this YouTube video:

And then these:

I tried to cut myself with a butter knife, it was so horrendous and never-ending.

and

she gets an invite, gets a nice slot to talk, gets drunk, and gets so embarrassing that I have to duck away rather than embarrass her further with interviewing her

and

I mercifully did not film it.

and

I hadn’t realized that it was going to be her campaign speech, and then I was mesmerized by the trainwreck.

and

She was a drunk rambling idiot that took 30 minutes to introduce a director who himself was confused.

and

It was beyond painful. At first, I was just embarrassed for her and felt a little sorry for her. But by the end of it – which I for while feared would never arrive – I was all ‘OMG, I *hate* you, STFU.’

After this incident, perhaps I was a bit too vocal I’d not actually be supporting her campaign. I assume this act of self destruction in front of 400 attendees of the RedState Gathering is why Jamie Radtke’s campaign decided to orchestrate a hit job on me in the Politico after I both endorsed her campaign and allowed her to speak at the RedState Gathering.

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UPDATED: As I note here, Jamie Radtke insists through her lawyer and the press that she was not drinking, so you’ll have to ignore the reviews of those spectators who saw her performance and thought she had been. That, of course, raises other questions about her abilities on the campaign trail to give that performance sober.

———————————–I was fortunate not to witness Jamie Radtke’s speech at the RedState Gathering. Fortunate because . . . well . . . here are reviews of her speech from various witnesses to the train wreck, one of which was a link to this YouTube video:

And then these:

I tried to cut myself with a butter knife, it was so horrendous and never-ending.

and

she gets an invite, gets a nice slot to talk, gets drunk, and gets so embarrassing that I have to duck away rather than embarrass her further with interviewing her

and

I mercifully did not film it.

and

I hadn’t realized that it was going to be her campaign speech, and then I was mesmerized by the trainwreck.

and

She was a drunk rambling idiot that took 30 minutes to introduce a director who himself was confused.

and

It was beyond painful. At first, I was just embarrassed for her and felt a little sorry for her. But by the end of it – which I for while feared would never arrive – I was all ‘OMG, I *hate* you, STFU.’

After this incident, perhaps I was a bit too vocal I’d not actually be supporting her campaign. I assume this act of self destruction in front of 400 attendees of the RedState Gathering is why Jamie Radtke’s campaign decided to orchestrate a hit job on me in the Politico after I both endorsed her campaign and allowed her to speak at the RedState Gathering.

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By Jamie Radtke, Candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia

I was honored to meet with the House Tea Party Caucus yesterday to discuss the daunting challenges we face as a nation, in particular our spending and our mounting national debt.

I told the members that watching the budget debate in Washington lately has made me feel like Alice in “Alice in Wonderland.” Are our leaders in touch with reality? Is this really happening? One can only conclude that most in Congress subscribe to “Wonderland Economics.”

Our national debt is already more than 95% of our GDP. Our unfunded liabilities are at least $112 trillion. Standard & Poors and Moodys have warned that they will yank our triple-A credit rating if we continue on our current trajectory. Interest payments on our national debt are the fastest growing component in the federal budget.

Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of the University of Maryland and Harvard University, respectively, studied the effect of national debt on economic growth in 44 countries spanning 200 years of history.

What they found is chilling: Countries that allow their debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 90% usually go into significant economic decline. As the nations hit this debt intolerance ceiling, market interest rates rise suddenly and quickly, and they can no longer grow their way out of their problems.

The United States is at that point today. Are our leaders listening? Are they awake? Unless we reverse course immediately, we face a collapse similar to that of Greece.

President Obama and his economic team have failed this leadership challenge to significantly cut our spending. The U.S. Senate has failed the test. Sadly, so have the Republican leaders in the House, despite many opportunities to lead America to lower spending.

Criticizing the most powerful leaders in my own party, including the Majority Leader who also happens to be my own Congressman, probably strikes many in the Republican Establishment and pundit-sphere as politically unwise or imprudent. And they may be right. But the facts are the facts and the real insanity is punting to the next vote.

This brings me to the subject of the debt ceiling.

I challenge the Republican leadership to show the way. Honor the current debt ceiling. Cut current fiscal year spending to 2008 levels. Eliminate corporate welfare. Go hard after domestic spending that is not absolutely necessary. Reduce defense spending unrelated to protecting us from terrorism or to concluding the Iraq and Afghanistan missions. And reform entitlements, restoring their solvency and the solvency of our country.

The time to act is now, not next year or the year after the elections.

We MUST take immediate action to avert the kind of austerity programs that were imposed on Greece by its creditors. I would rather that we decide how and when to reduce our federal spending as opposed to having China and our other creditors dictate to us what must be cut. That would be the ultimate failure for us.

This nation may never have faced a threat more ominous than the threat it faces today.

But I believe, and recent polls confirm, that the American people arent afraid to face this crisis head-on, and we have the character and courage to do what we know in our bones is right. Its time for our leaders to reflect and represent the courage of those they lead.

Originally posted at BearingDrift.com: “Virginia’s Conservative Voice”

From the Diaries by NS

The recent decision by Virginia Senator Jim Webb not to run for reelection was a gift to Republicans. While it is disappointing that we will not be able to give him the electoral defeat he had coming, it guarantees that Jim Webb will no longer be a reliable vote for the Democrats’ disastrous agenda in 2013.

But the real gift is the opportunity this presents to Republicans. The open 2012 Virginia Senate seat is an opportunity for the people to decide on the future of the Republican Party.

In the Republican primary for Senator Webb’s seat, Virginians have a choice: We can vote for the old Washington Establishment or for a new generation of conservative leadership.

I am running to become Virginia’s next Senator because I believe that Republican renewal will come not from the Establishment that created our problems, but from the grassroots movement that has arisen to challenge that failed Establishment.

For more than a decade, the Washington political Establishment – in both parties – has steadily increased spending, burning through our treasury and then borrowing more money from other nations to spend. In the process, we’ve accumulated a $14 trillion national debt and jeopardized America’s financial stability.

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From the Diaries by NS

The recent decision by Virginia Senator Jim Webb not to run for reelection was a gift to Republicans. While it is disappointing that we will not be able to give him the electoral defeat he had coming, it guarantees that Jim Webb will no longer be a reliable vote for the Democrats’ disastrous agenda in 2013.

But the real gift is the opportunity this presents to Republicans. The open 2012 Virginia Senate seat is an opportunity for the people to decide on the future of the Republican Party.

In the Republican primary for Senator Webb’s seat, Virginians have a choice: We can vote for the old Washington Establishment or for a new generation of conservative leadership.

I am running to become Virginia’s next Senator because I believe that Republican renewal will come not from the Establishment that created our problems, but from the grassroots movement that has arisen to challenge that failed Establishment.

For more than a decade, the Washington political Establishment – in both parties – has steadily increased spending, burning through our treasury and then borrowing more money from other nations to spend. In the process, we’ve accumulated a $14 trillion national debt and jeopardized America’s financial stability.

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I know I normally keep myself to Florida issues, but this is too good to pass up. Former chairwoman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriot Federation has decided that it is time to retire Democrat Jim Webb.

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Awesome and from the diaries by Erick

Former Chairwoman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Jamie Radtke, as speculated, has filed paperwork to run for U.S. Senate, reports WTVR in Richmond.

Radtke is currently leading our completely non-scientific candidates’ poll for the GOP nomination with 211 votes. Trailing closely behind her is former U.S. Senator George Allen, who has yet to file, but is expected to, with 208. No other candidate contends in the poll.

According to WTVR:

…she mailed in the papers on December 23, after gaining the support of family members and friends and raising some money from political backers.

When asked about the primary reason for her decision to run, the Moseley mom cited her three children, who she fears will suffer the fallout from a national debt that continues to balloon.

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