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A 270 victory

By: tbrickert (Diary)  |  November 18th, 2011 at 08:33 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This is a quick follow-up to my last post. First, I want to thank everyone for the thoughtful responses. Second, I wanted to post a picture of what the electoral college map would look like in a 270 Obama victory. Alas, the best I could do is provide the link to the map I created, here. After looking at the map, COME BACK, I know it is an ugly picture and I hate to think what would become of the country if this scenario played out. Now, after looking at the map the good news is obvious, all the Republican nominee needs to do is peel away one state and Obama is a one term president. Which blue state do you think would be the most likely to vote Republican? Conversely, which red state do you think Obama may be able to win? Personally, I think I have maxed out the states Obama can win. Unfortunately, they also happened to be the states I think he will most likely win.

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COMMENTS

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  • Kyle-MI

    I worry about CO, NM, and FL on the GOP side.

    For pick-offs from Obama, IMHO, I would include NV, NH, and almost any of the Great Lakes states (except IL of course), MN, WI, MI, OH, and PA. I think our best chance next year is with MI.

    With the union reforms, there is a backlash against the GOP in OH and WI. The vote in OH means that the state economy will not improve. Will they blame Obama or Kasich? Will the unions be content with the anti-reform vote or will it energize them further for 2012? In WI, will the Walker recall energize the unions or their opponents? Or will the success of the Walker reforms take the steam out of the unions?

    Reforms in MI have been a lot smaller and lower profile. The city of Detroit will probably go under emergency financial management. That will rile up a few hard core leftist, but most everyone outside of Detroit knows that the city is a basket case.

    • nathanalbright

      …but generally pretty similar, I agree that NM is definitely at least moderately likely to go Dem as well. I just hope we can hold on to enough of the Midwest or win in PA to send Obama packing. We’ll see how it plays out.

  • nathanalbright

    Florida and Colorado would be “purple states,” and I’m not sure that the Republicans will win Colorado this time (they have trended more towards Democrats in recent years). That said, I think the Republicans should be competitive in Ohio. That would be the “blue” state most likely to flip in my opinion. If Obama loses Pennsylvania or Michigan he’s almost certainly a one-termer.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    http://unlikelyvoter.com/swingometer/electoral-college-swingometer/

    You’ll see that we need a 9.2% switch in the popular vote to basically win the electoral vote.

    I do wonder if we could talk Chris Christie into the VP slot. Seems like that might swing NJ his way. I could see a fair number of Democratic voters vote for Whoever/Christie just to get rid of Christie from NJ.

  • greyeagle

    Don’t think Obama will win this state anymore. GOP Governor, House and Senate. Also plan to throw out Bill Nelson this time too.