Thought I’d handicap the upcoming 2010 elections for US Senate, which will probably be starting in the next 6-8 months.
Safe Democrat:
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Evan Bayh (IN)
Chris Dodd (CT)
Barbara Mikulski (MD)
Harry Reid (NV)
Chuck Schumer (NY)
Byron Dorgan (ND)
Ron Wyden (OR)
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Delaware
Russ Feingold (WI)
Florida (pickup)
Safe Republican:
Richard Shelby (AL)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Mike Crapo (ID)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Kit Bond (MO)
Judd Gregg (NH)
Bob Bennett (UT)
John Thune (ND)
Arlen Spector(PA)
Jim DeMint (SC)
Tom Coburn (OK)
Lisa Murkowski (AK)
That leaves the following races and potential outcomes:
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Kansas - With Sam Brownback running for Governor in 2010, this seat will be prime target for the Democrats. Republican Rep. Jerry Moran looks to be the likely nominee, with Governor Kathleen Sebelius being the prime Democratic nominee. If the Republicans aren’t careful, they could lose this seat. For now, I’ll list it as REP HOLD
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Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln is probably the Democrat’s most vulnerable member. Lincoln is popular, but Mike Huckabee is more popular. If he runs, I’m prepared to call this TOSSUP
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Colorado - Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Pete Coors in 2004. This will be the Republicans prime target in 2010. John Elway is onsidered a possible candidate, but I would suggest former Governor Bill Owens. He was probably the state’s most popular Governor and would give Salazar a good run. Currently, this race is TOSSUP
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Hawaii - I predict that Daniel Inouye, who will be 86 come 2010, will retire. Even if he doesn’t, Governor Linda Lingle looks to be the most likely Republican candidate. I think Lingle, regardless of who she faces, will win and is the only Republican who could win the seat. I rate this race LIKELY REP PICKUP
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Illinois - With Barack Obama’s resignation, Governor Rod Blagojevich will appoint someone who will serve until a special election in 2010. The most likely replacement at the moment seems to be either Jesse Jackson Jr. or Tammy Duckworth. If the Republicans can recruit former Governor Jim Edgar, then they should easily pick this seat up, with the massive disapproval of Democrats in the state thinks to the current Governor. My rating: LIKELY REP PICKUP
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Washington - Patty Murray has never seemed to be able to set the Washington state electorate on fire. The largest % she has ever gotten has been 55% in 2004. Republicans need to seriously recruit Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers to run against her. She has strong Conservative credentials and could give Patty a good fight. For now: LIKELY DEM HOLD
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Arizona - Governor Janet Napolitano is most likely going to run for this seat, regardless of whether or not she gets a Cabinet post. If John McCain is smart, he won’t run in an election he is likely to lose. To me, the best Republican candidates are John Shadegg and Lisa Graham Keegan. If McCain doesn’t run, which I don’t think he will, this race will be LIKELY REP HOLD
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Kentucky - If Jim Bunning is smart, he will spare Kentucky the shame of what will he a humiliating loss to his likely Democratic challenger. Republicans need to persuade him to not seek re-election, then get Elaine Chao to run. That is the only way I see this seat remaining in Republican hands. Currently, this seat is LIKELY DEM PICKUP
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Louisiana - David Vitter’s race is a tough one to gauge. Kennedy’s performance against Landrieu should be a good omen for him, so I’ll call this LIKELY REP HOLD
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North Carolina - Richard Burr has been a lackluster Senator at best, and if he isn’t careful, he will go the way of Elizabeth Dole. Right now, this race is a TOSSUP
Cathy McMorris Rodgers
itsonlywords Monday, November 17th at 9:05PM EST (link)For those of you who aren’t from the Soviet of Washington, here’s a link to Cathy’s webpage. Right now she’s seeking the vice-chairmanship of the State House Republican Conference.
Tu ne cede malis sed contra audientor ito. ~Virgil
Do not give in to evil, but proceed evermore boldly against it.
We need to start now
Nelsen Monday, November 17th at 9:20PM EST (link)We need to start almost now preparing for these seats, and I mean almost all the seats. If Obama fumbles (which he will because I believe Congress will pull him to the extreme left which ruins everyone) we have to be ready to scoop up a massive pick-up.
What we need to do now is start figuring out a strategy for each race. We need to start now!
Obama Made 512 Promises and Every Single One is Tracked At:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/
Create Your Own Obama Speech:
http://www.atom.com/spotlights/inauguration_speech_generator/
Interesting fact...
TC Robinson Monday, November 17th at 9:43PM EST (link)Cathy McMorris Rodgers, like Sarah Palin, has a son with Down’s Syndrome. I have always found them eerily similar in ideologies and stances.
Join the RedState Strike Force
I wouldn't put Harry Reid in the "safe"...
St_Louis_Conservative Monday, November 17th at 9:56PM EST (link)…category. I’d say it’s “likely Dem”, but I honestly think that clown is vulnerable. I think the Lt Gov in Nevada is gearing up for a run against him. I for one will pitch in money to anyone running against Dingy Harry.
“…..women and minorities hardest hit”
Hold that thought
Ihatepork Monday, November 17th at 10:04PM EST (link)Illinois is not a likely Rep pick up. Huckabee will not run for Senate.
Burr has been a solid senator.
Harry Reid is definitely someone we can beat if we find...
JadedByPolitics Monday, November 17th at 10:08PM EST (link)someone good to run against him….his constituents do not like Harry!
Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy
Not Dingy..
SeriousLaff Monday, November 17th at 10:11PM EST (link)..that is too cute. Dirty Harry . He is a crook that has been shifting taxpayer money to his family members for years and should be in jail. He also is far too left wing for Nevada. You should check out his original immigration proposal.Tancredo could have written it.
He is very vulnerable.
If anyone has a shot at ousting Reid
Nelsen Monday, November 17th at 10:14PM EST (link)I will most definitely contribute to anyone has a chance of getting this idiot out of the senate.
Who’s on the short-list to run against him?
Obama Made 512 Promises and Every Single One is Tracked At:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/
Create Your Own Obama Speech:
http://www.atom.com/spotlights/inauguration_speech_generator/
Have Thread on This
dld1717 Monday, November 17th at 10:14PM EST (link)http://www.redstate.com/diaries/dld1717/2008/nov/07/us-senate-gop-prevents-60-for-now-but-2010/#c84741
I started a thread on this already
ON NV Reid
Nevada Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki confirmed in an interview Friday that he was inching closer to a 2010 challenge to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Searchlight), and said that he had begun the process of reaching out to national Republicans in an effort to lay the groundwork for a bid.
It looks like some races are taking shape early.
So Brownback is not running this is definite?
My concern is retirements: I have bad feeling Grassley may retire for us
Huck needs to run for US Senate
Freedoms Truth Monday, November 17th at 10:16PM EST (link)Or leave politics entirely. His talents of eloquent flim-flammery are wellsuited to the US Senate chamber, and he can salvage a state that is electing way too many Democrats.
Huck’s Army needs to draft him to run for Senate!
Since Dirty harry came up … let’s recall the line: “A man’s gotta know his limitations” and one of Huck’s limitations is that he will never be President.
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor - http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
It looks like Dems will Add 3 Races
dld1717 Monday, November 17th at 10:23PM EST (link)We have Biden Seat
Maybe Castle should just go for it (we would lose House seat but he may have shot at winning Senate Race for us)
Obama
I really hope Jackson is named we may have shot there
I think our only shot is Fmr Gov Thompson or Edgar in ILL both are up their in age but both were very popular
Hillary Become Sec of State
Only Dem seat and Republicans have nobody really
Pickup in Florida?
SeriousLaff Monday, November 17th at 10:23PM EST (link)I am not sure about the pickup in Florida or why it would be a sure thing.
Wyden in Oregon is worth going after. Especially if the economy gets worse and the Dems do the stupid and unpopular things I predict, like immigration amnesty during rising unemployment.
Other races that are possible but not mentioned.
NY. If Hillary will is out the replacement will be up in 2010. Almost an open seat depending on who is chosen.
WVa. KKK Byrd is not in very good health. I seriously doubt he will last until the next election.
MD. There has been talk of the MD Senator who beat Michael Steele of being named Defense Secretary. That would add another semi-open seat in 2010.
Some Info
dld1717 Monday, November 17th at 10:30PM EST (link)IN FL Martinez is up for us (he is sure to face tough re-election)
WV Byrd is not up until 2012
MD I hope we can convince Powell to run for us
OR Wyden? I can’t see GOP having any chance here
2010 will be a good year for GOP
Freedoms Truth Monday, November 17th at 10:41PM EST (link)The worm always turns and the Democrats, like the scorpion on the frog, just cannot help themselves to move to the left.
We should recruit as if every race is winning, run as if every race is uphill but possible, and leave No Voter Behind.
IL is winnable with the right recruit. I dunno about this one … “If the Republicans can recruit former Governor Jim Edgar” … but find a good candidate.
CO - we need to have a serious pushback on CO, but Bill Owens is probably the best bet. Salazar will have quite a few votes to explain. Salazar beat Coors by being the ‘regular guy’ to Coors elite manner, and the Dems have cemented it further. We have an opportunity to push back bigtime on this by exposing things like Salazar’s votes for ACORN giveaways, his votes to give tort lawyers special deals.
There are many many many cockroaches in the bills the Democrats are passing. Its time to expose these to light and these formerly Red states, turned blue, can come on back.
2010 will be a good year for GOP …. if we recruit well, stand up the the Dems in the next session, regroup and project a positive conservative vision/agenda, and work to win every vote.
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor - http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
Byrd
SeriousLaff Monday, November 17th at 11:02PM EST (link)My point with Byrd is that his health is so bad (he lost the appropriations committe chair recently because of it) that he may not complete his term the seat may be open by 2010.
MD, if the Senator is chosen for Defense, then they will have an additional MD seat up in 2010. Mikulski is a safe seat for the Dems.
OR is strange. Even real conservatives can run close elections there. Especially sensible conservationalist conservatives. The hunter, farmer type. Moderate Republicans don’t do as well against liberal democrats.. If the economy is lousy and the Dems are screwing up, as will probably be the case, then OR should not be written off.
WV
dld1717 Monday, November 17th at 11:16PM EST (link)On WV Capito may run for us but Manchin is very popular in state
I don’t see Capito running if Manchin runs and besides her there is nobody for us
A big if
Dave Tuesday, November 18th at 1:42AM EST (link)But if Mikulski retires, look to Bob Ehrlich to run for this seat instead of Governor. He is still a rock star in the state even among some democrats.
People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.
“Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.” - Goldwater
Mistake
SeriousLaff Tuesday, November 18th at 2:14AM EST (link)It was not MD but RI that may have the opening. Whitehouse is being considered for Defense, not the junior Senator from Maryland.
I think RI would be tough. The only good thing going is that their will be some semi-open seats who the replacements are not as popular as the governors think they are.
Maybe we could convince McCain to leave now in AZ. They have to choose a Republican and I believe ANY Republican would be better.
Arnie could knock out Boxer in CA
Finrod Tuesday, November 18th at 10:50AM EST (link)Even though he’s moderate as far as Republicans go, I hope that Arnold Schwarzenegger runs for the Senate in 2010. He’s about the only candidate I can think of that could defeat Barbara Boxer, and in a state as blue as CA, a moderate R is about the best we can probably hope for.
Should we be worried about Judd Gregg in NH? That state’s been awfully blue lately.
—
Finrod’s First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
North Dakota Senate
neum432 Tuesday, November 18th at 12:08PM EST (link)Popular (R) Gov. John Hoeven could beat Byron Dorgon in 2010. Especially if the popularity of Democrats falls as it most likely will after two years of socialist/liberal experiment. Don’t consider Dorgan a safe seat, most likely a tossup if the Governor can be convinced to run.
“To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
2010 Senate Races
indym Tuesday, November 18th at 12:36PM EST (link)2010 is a long way off and anything can happen. The country could turn against the dems in a big way or move towards them if things turn around. My own thoughts right now is that the only republican pickup I can see is Hawaii. One of the bluest states in the country. Gov Lingle is extremely popular and the Hawaii democratic party makes the leaders in our party look like teenagers. Illinois could be interesting if the Gov does what is suggested by Illinois democrats. The natural choice should be Attorney General Madigan or Tammy Duckworth an Iraq veteran. But there are dems in Illinois who feel that a African American should be appointed to replace an African American. Both Jesse Jackson Jr and Danny Davis are interested. All have strong constituencies which will be hard to be pleased no matter who the choice is.