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Thoughts on the Virginia Ballot Fiasco [Updated]

UPDATE: The Perry campaign is taking legal action to appear on the Virginia ballot arguing the current process involves both onerous and unconstitutional requirements. Curiously, Newt has neither filed a lawsuit or hinted at possible legal action to my knowledge.

Full disclosure: I am a Rick Perry delegate representing the state of Tennessee.

Here are some musings on the Virginia ballot mess for what they’re worth. And yes, when 5  of 7 major GOP candidates are excluded from a state ballot, mess is an apt description of the situation. RedState contributor Neil Stevens tweeted that he hadn’t seen so many candidates tossed from a ballot since the Iranian Presidential election. Possibly true. Regardless, there is a certain absurdity to the whole episode, especially as the story continues to unfold.

My friends at Team Perry instructed me to gain well above the necessary signature threshold, as the Secretary of State’s office would inevitably disqualify some of the signatures. In fact, the Tennessee SoS disqualified roughly 20% of my signatures due to various signature infractions. I still managed to qualify. I mention this simply to elaborate and explain that capturing valid signatures isn’t as easy as it seems. In Tennessee, voters must print their name, sign their name and include their residence as it appeared on their registration card. Easy Peasy right? Wrong. Many seasoned citizens had a hard time reading the instructions without their reading glasses and left off a signature or complete address. Some voters included their business addresses. Disqualified. Some voters forgot to update their registration to their new address. Disqualified. Some people were embarrassed to admit they weren’t registered voters but signed my petition anyway. And since I didn’t slip any truth serum in their drinks…  Disqualified. Some signees were convicted felons. Dis–Okay. Just joking on that one (I hope). Others failed to realize their voter registration lapsed since they hadn’t voted in so long. Suffice it to say, it’s inevitable that many signatures will be thrown out during the validation process for various reasons.

Before delving deeper into this blog post, readers should first familiarize themselves with RedState contributor Moe Lane’s excellent points here.  All interested parties ought to review his analysis of the fiasco, as my reflections are based in large part on his latest assessment. If you are operating under the assumption that all you need is 10,000+ signatures and you are golden, it will change the way you play the game and use your resources. Keep in mind that Perry got into the game late and has had to play catchup w/ Mitt Romney who’s been running for President since he was in the first grade and amassing a fortune since then and Ron Paul who’s been running for President since television began appearing in color while inspiring millions of devoted followers across the fruited plain by promising to legalize pot.

All that being said, I think Newt and Perry deserve some more grace from GOP voters than Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman, because both Newt and Perry actually organized in VA and turned in over 10,000 signatures. By all appearances, they attempted to play by the Virginia Republican Party’s rules and thought they made the ballot. The problem, it seems clear now, is that the rules changed late in the game. Whether the referees notified Perry and Newt of the rules change (or the fairness thereof) is an open question.

I contacted via Twitter a prominent political scientist familiar with Virginia politics that Virginia lawmakers ought to pass legislation enabling GOP contenders polling 5%+ an automatic ballot berth. To my surprise,  he responded to my tweet: “Something like that ought to be done. I doubt they’ll do it in time for March 6 primary–or much earlier ballot printing.” He has a good point. The logistics of conducting an election will work against Newt and Perry.

In the last 24 hours, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has called for Virginia lawmakers to reform Virginia’s burdensome ballot requirements in order to make Virginia relevant in primary contest. Although Republicans hold majorities in Virginia’s legislature, I am not optimistic they will be able to resolve this fiasco satisfactorily in time for the primary.

Alas, the only likely redress ending with Newt and Perry on the ballot involves a lawsuit. It is truly unfortunate that Virginia party leaders have mishandled this process so badly. They’ve effectively disenfranchised Virginians and reduced their primary Presidential choices to an ineffective RINO libertarian congressman who routinely dons a tin foil hat and a Massachusetts moderate who inspired Obamacare and raised taxes on businesses 20% during his one term.

One last thought: how candidates handle adversity reveals a lot about their leadership and character. Perry’s public response has essentially been muted. It remains to be seen if he will issue any more public utterances on the situation, although I think it likely he will be forced to address the dilemma sometime soon. This strategy is probably wise considering many voters haven’t been paying close attention to the Virginia ballot fiasco over the last few days. Further, it gives Team Perry time to work the VRP channels privately and see if anything can be done before issuing any additional remarks. Newt’s response, however, leaves much to be desired. Comparing the ballot snafu with Pearl Harbor is beyond ridiculous. Moreover, Newt has an unyielding proclivity to blow things out of proportion to include his opinion of himself (i.e. his comparing himself to Churchill, Thatcher and Reagan).

Headed to Iowa later this week. Talk soon!
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COMMENTS

  • Scope

    Being a resident of VA, and feeling very embarrassed by the fiasco in my state, I sent Atty. Gen. Cuccinelli asking if there was any way he could possibly intercede. I expressed my fears that the VA primary would be a bleak day, as many VA voters would simply stay home on primary day, and we would be nothing more than a laughing stock out of the 10 states that hold their primaries on March 6. It was good to see him express his opinion, as he himself is fighting a battle for the Gov. seat in 2013 so that people have a choice, rather than the typical next in line option that has been politics in VA for a very long time. It seems obvious that the VA party elders consider Romney to be the next in line.

    Keep us posted when you hit the ground in Iowa if you can. It’s great to hear from those close to the action. Gov. Perry is going to do fine, he is going to make a mockery of those that have written him off, or those that would like us to. Thank you again.

  • westcoastpatriette

    with respect to the VA Gop extending grace to Perry and Newt–which they have the authority to do–and allow them on the ballot. With so much at stake, the ambiguity of the rules for gathering ballot signatures and the intraparty strife alone should bring into question the fairness of this entire process. The bottom line being that it is the voters who wind up cheated. For the Republican Party to ignore the complaints about all of this only feeds into the perception that some in the party may have a vested interest in seeing Perry and Newt off the ballot.

    • teme

      Found some interesting stuff from 2007 from Red State archives about the validation of signatures and papers.

      There was full check for any mistakes in signatures and forms and procedures in 2008, and if after those the total of valid signatures fell below 10.5k or 450 per district, they were checked against RPV?s official voter list, if opposing campaign wanted to challenge those results and pay for the official voter list comparison. From what we have heard, it was the procedural validation alone that brought both Perry below 10k, which causes automatic drop out, so the address check that would have been enabled at 10.5k wouldn’t have been used anyway, so by 2008 standards Gingrich and Perry wouldn’t have been on the ticket either.

      This is probably why the all 6 Republican campaigns who got to the ballot collected those 15k signatures, the key persons knew the rules and collected what they were asked to collect.

      http://images.redstate.com/files/Guidelines%20for%20Observers.pdf

      http://images.redstate.com/files/Guidelines%20for%20Petition%20Verification.pdf

      http://images.redstate.com/files/RPV%202008%20Presidential%20Primary%20Petition%20Verification.pdf

      Here is observer invitation:

      From: Matt Wells
      Sent: Fri Dec 14 17:59:22 2007
      Subject: Petition Verification
      All,
      This email is to notify you that the Party has collected your petitions from the State Board of Elections.

      First off, congratulations on making it through a grueling process! Now that you?ve done the hard part, we just need to verify the petitions.
      We will be conducting verification at RPV HQ (115 E. Grace St, Richmond) beginning at 9:45am on Monday, December 17th. We will be doing a hard count for number of signatures based on correctness of form (see attached documents for details).
      We?ve got about 40 folks coming in to help with the count, so it should proceed fairly quickly. You all are more than welcome to have one or two folks present as observers.
      I will be out of town next week, so please direct any questions to either Christian Curto or Erika Fischer (copied on this email, or available at 703-254-**** and 757-618-****, respectively), who will be supervising the count.
      I hope you?ll take the time to review the attached documents, so that we can get through this as rapidly and smoothly as possible. It is the goal of the Party to qualify your candidates for the ballot, but we do have an obligation to make sure that the legal requirements have been met.
      Thanks,
      Matt
      Matthew Wells
      Political Director ? Central
      Republican Party of Virginia

      • heraklios

        Conservatives are going to make sure Willard Mittens is never President of the United States, one way or another. I hope Willard Mittens’ staff is getting a jump on the concession speech. With all the time he has to prepare it, it should be a doozy!

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  • racetraitor

    Go Perry!

  • romansdaughter

    Extremely interesting as I am one of those who couldn’t quite grasp all of the details involved in getting on the ballot there in VA. It is good to hear from a different perspective. I am a Perry supporter and I continue to be amazed by the dignity he portrays under fire. Go Perry!

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Good informative post. I’m hoping Perry will mention this whole mess today when he gets back on the campaign trail. (Though I doubt he’ll compare it to Pearl Harbor.) I’m interested to see how he will react to questions about it. I’m sure he’ll handle it splendidly, but will he be defiant or will he say “it is what it is”? We’ll see.

  • romansdaughter

    say it is what it is. He doesn’t seem to be the type to cry over spilled milk. I read on someone else’s post that Newt basically said it was his fault on Morning Joe. Yeah that is why I can’t trust Newt, the guy is too volatile and says absurd things at times.
    By the way how was your Christmas? Did your little sister like the paper dolls? I had a very enjoyable Christmas and our family likes to really contemplate the Lord Jesus’ birth and what it meant to all mankind. It puts everything in perspective, right? Yep, am still praying for Rick Perry.

  • bzip

    This is what separates Newt and Perry. Team Perry responded once to this Va ballot issue (as far as I can tell).

    Team Perry stated they wanted the facts and then determine if it should be challenged. To me this is the most and what should have been said by any candidate. Lets find out the facts and take it from there.

    Now Newt is all over the map on this making all sorts of strange statements like the Pearl Harbor statement and wage a write-in campaign (even though it is illegal). To me that isn’t very professional.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Yes, my little sister LOVED her paper dolls. We’re spending the day at our grandparents’ house and she brought them along. My little brother made me bookmarks…of Rick Perry. The little guy knows me VERY well ;) We had a lovely Christmas, so peaceful and joyous. Thank you for asking! And yes, we are still praying for Governor Perry.

    So wait, did Newt say it was his OWN fault, or PERRY’S fault, on Morning Joe? His whole “Pearl Harbor” comment was so…bizarre.

  • teme

    Found some interesting stuff from 2007 from Red State archives about the validation of signatures and papers.

    There was full check for any mistakes in signatures and forms and procedures in 2008, and if after those the total of valid signatures fell below 10.5k or 450 per district, they were checked against RPV?s official voter list, if opposing campaign wanted to challenge those results and pay for the official voter list comparison. From what we have heard, it was the procedural validation alone that brought both Perry below 10k, so they would have been out by these rules also.

    This is probably why the all 6 Republican campaigns who got to the ballot collected those 15k signatures, the key persons knew the rules and collected what they were asked to collect.

    http://images.redstate.com/files/Guidelines%20for%20Observers.pdf

    http://images.redstate.com/files/Guidelines%20for%20Petition%20Verification.pdf

    http://images.redstate.com/files/RPV%202008%20Presidential%20Primary%20Petition%20Verification.pdf

    Here is observer invitation:

    From: Matt Wells
    Sent: Fri Dec 14 17:59:22 2007
    Subject: Petition Verification
    All,
    This email is to notify you that the Party has collected your petitions from the State Board of Elections.

    First off, congratulations on making it through a grueling process! Now that you?ve done the hard part, we just need to verify the petitions.
    We will be conducting verification at RPV HQ (115 E. Grace St, Richmond) beginning at 9:45am on Monday, December 17th. We will be doing a hard count for number of signatures based on correctness of form (see attached documents for details).
    We?ve got about 40 folks coming in to help with the count, so it should proceed fairly quickly. You all are more than welcome to have one or two folks present as observers.
    I will be out of town next week, so please direct any questions to either Christian Curto or Erika Fischer (copied on this email, or available at 703-254-**** and 757-618-****, respectively), who will be supervising the count.
    I hope you?ll take the time to review the attached documents, so that we can get through this as rapidly and smoothly as possible. It is the goal of the Party to qualify your candidates for the ballot, but we do have an obligation to make sure that the legal requirements have been met.
    Thanks,
    Matt
    Matthew Wells
    Political Director ? Central
    Republican Party of Virginia

  • romansdaughter

    None of this jumping in without thought on the issues and remaining calm through it all. He doesn’t blame others just quietly continues on. I like his it is what it is attitude. As we have in office right now, the number one “Blame it on others” POTUS. Both Mitt and Newt seem to be like that a lot where it is someone elses fault for their mistakes. Cain was like that, big time..it never was his fault but someone elses. Newt and the Pearl Harbor thing was way out of line. My Dad said “He has plum gone off his rockers.” when he heard that statement. Doesn’t think much before he spouts.

  • sunshinek67

    Gingrich not on the ballot likened to Lucille Ball in the chocolate factory per Politico.

  • tailfins1959

    That earns points for those of us that make choices based on the “No a**hole rule”.

  • romansdaughter

    Lizzie that said that it sounded like Newt on Morning Joe was admitting it was partly his fault if I was understanding correctly. But yeah that is a big problem with Newt..he tends to spout off without much thought. Yeah the “Pearl Harbor” thing was really bizarre. Glad you had a good Christmas.

  • greyeagle

    A 50% rate for tossed signatures is extremely high. The other thing is that apparently the signatures for Paul and Romney were not looked at . Nothing fair about this process. A liberal and a loon are what the VA voters have to choose from. Disgusting.

  • texashistorian

    At that rate of failure, assuming that the VA GOP was applying fair and equitable standards, we could reasonably expect to have seen Paul and Romney tossed as well. As I read the stories, dropping 50% of Paul’s would eject him, and wasn’t Romney below 20,000 as well? Something smells here. For those that take the Perry campaign to task on this, I would just like to point out that he and his team are not amateurs. They have been running professional, successful campaigns in Texas for 25 years. They got about 20% over the required threshold to account for potential problems, correct? That should be enough, and if the fail rate is beyond that, then I have to wonder just what the VA GOP was up to in making their decisions to disqualify.

  • Scope

    Paul had some 14,000 signatures, and he would have been tossed. Romney had some 16 thousand signatures, and losing 50% would have tossed him also. VA would have had no one running in the 2012 primary. We wouldn’t have had a primary at all. No one would have qualified.

    By some of the comments from anti-Perry commenters, saying that Perry will not do well in Iowa and NH, and will be out of the race shortly thereafter. If that is the case, why is he bringing a lawsuit in VA who holds their primary on March 6, along with 9 other states? Perry said he is in it for the long haul, and this should be proof of that.

  • texashistorian

    for the hard numbers- neither Luap or Mitt would have survived what was done to Newt and Perry here. And yes, he is in it for the long haul. My experience with him these past couple decades are that he means what he says and says what he means. He’ll be there till it’s mathematically impossible for him to win.

    Here is something I grabbed at Townhall from Terry Jeffery talking about his experiences running Buchanan’s campaign in ’96. Sounds an awful lot like what is going on here:

    http://townhall.com/columnists/terryjeffrey/2011/12/28/virginia_must_change_its_election_system

  • mikeymike143

    its a primary election for POTUS, and to arbitrarily disqualify most of the leading candidates is just looney.

    and i DO blame the GOP in virginia for this. they could choose to add newt and perry and we would not be having this discussion.

  • avagreen

    Perry’s campaign is not the only group seeking to change the state’s rules: Bill Pascoe of a conservative organization called Citizens for the Republic is considering a challenge to the ballot certification process based on the fact that only candidates who submitted less than 15,000 signatures had their petitions cross-referenced with voting roles, which Pascoe said leaves the system open to fraud.

    “We’re prepared to take this to the Pope,” he told CBS News.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57348972-503544/perry-campaign-sues-to-get-on-virginia-ballot/

  • urbanelephants

    There is NO excuse for failure to qualify if you are a national candidate. None.

    First. This excuse that he was at a disadvantage because he started later than the others needs to be squashed. Perry is singularly responsible for that himself. Why should be be given a pass for having to spend three months thinking about IF he should run. Shouldn’t he have known before May he might be wanting to run? Shouldn’t someone have researched the deadlines of what states needed what?

    Second. If the people leading a campaign in a state do not know the rules to get you on the ballot that is simply your fault for failing to hire competent people. Seems to me someone in Virginia working to elect Perry should have know about this. This to me just screams incompetence on so many levels starting with the national campaign staff.

    Third. If the people you hire are unable to garner the signatures to withstand a strong petition challenge then again it is your fault for failing to hire competent people to over see the process. Petitioning is never easy. People fail at it all the time. My rule of thumb when organizing petitions operations isn’t to get 10-20% more than is needed. I aim for 3 times the number. Sure from time to time I’ve failed to hit that goal but I’ve yet to fail to get someone on a ballot.