How Long Until the Next Recession?

By: Brad Jackson (Diary) | August 22nd, 2011 at 10:07 AM |

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss how the upheaval in Libya and the Euro Bond debate will effect the markets. Then we’ll ask Francis when the next recession will hit, and oh yeah, Brad and his wife had a baby boy last week.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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Tags: Barack Obama, Coffee and Markets, Europe, Libya, Obamanomics, recession

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http://www.skiloveland.com skicougar

You can expect that previous quarter’s GDP will be revised downward and considering the US was at 0.4, any revision is going to put it into the negative category.

Companies still cutting jobs, housing sales still at record lows and a rising unemployment as the government using the birth/death adjustment to their advantage will start working against them for the rest of the year all adds up to a second recession.

Expect this one to last longer and with an even slower recovery than the one the US just got out of.

Unless the FED comes out with another quantitative easing, the next 3 to 6 months are going to hurt your 401K.

Best thing to do now is protect your cash, do anything and everything to keep your job or get one and find something cheap to do to occupy your time and keep your mind off this period of time. I can’t believe we’re going to have to go thru this twice and that’s 100% on Obama. WTG BHO !

http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

First the latter

.01 = Recovery
-.01 = Recession

Now, the former

The recovery has overwhelming only touched Wall Street due to TARP, QEs, and crony capitalism recipients. It is more bubble gains that also has weakened the currency.

The other most misleading stat out there is the continued use of the unemployment rate rather than referring to the total employed as a % of the working age population

and

the underemployment rate.

more later

Death_of_the_Donkey

We were at 1.3% last quarter (the .4% was Q1). Also, companies have in fact not been cutting jobs, they have been adding them at a suboptimal but definitely positive pace, the overall job creation numbers have been impacted by government cutting jobs though. Do not diminish the EU’s assistance in this leg down either.

Death_of_the_Donkey

nt
http://www.skiloveland.com skicougar

you don’t think that 1.3 will be revised down ? I’d bet my jeep on it.

And I don’t know where the jobs you are hearing about jobs being added, but last Friday, Bank of America said they were cutting jobs: http://www3.wdtn.com/dpps/money/business_news/reports-say-bank-of-america-to-ax-10000-or-more-jobs-nt11-jgr_3917146 and I believe Goldman sachs has announced cuts in the past few weeks.

First quarter GDP was revised down from 1.9 to 0.4. Considering what I mentioned previously, it’s not too hard to see a 0.4 revised to a negative number.

Now, a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth; so we’re not techinically in one; but i’m certain enough that in several months; the numbers will prove we are in one and my advice:

“Best thing to do now is protect your cash, do anything and everything to keep your job or get one and find something cheap to do to occupy your time and keep your mind off this period of time”

will have been a good idea.

Death_of_the_Donkey

Go to www.bls.gov and look at the employment situation reports. We have been positive every month for the past 12 ex-census.

I don’t disagree that the GDP numbers could be revised down to show us in a technical recession, but the data isn’t showing that yet (and i think Q1 may have had its final revision already).

acat

Mine too.

Are we gaining enough to match the population growth?

Last time I checked, we have something like 100,000 people – either immigrants or teenagers or moms – entering (or re-entering or .. trying to enter) the workforce monthly.

If the BLS growth is below that number, and assuming the BLS growth isn’t as overcooked as my uncle’s burgers*, then .. we’re still in “DOOM!” territory.

Mew

* they look and taste like hockey pucks … every. time.

onemovoter

back. I think 3rd and 4th quarters for 2010 were revised down if I remember right. First quarter 2011 was revised from 1.8 to 1.9 to a final 0.4%, after 2010 was revised down.

The 2nd quarter 2011 came in initially at 1.3% but they were guessing half of the import/export data, ect. Since then that data has dropped off a cliff along with other revised data. My guess is that 2nd quarter GDP will go to negative 0.6%. Third and fourth quarters will probably be around negative 1.0%. Some predict we’ll come back to flatline in 2012, but who knows. Check Zerohedge.com for the latest, the philly chart pertends 600-700k per month job losses again. If that happens, no amount of money Obama spends will help him for 2012.
acat

It is, indeed, my friend.

(although it doesn’t seem to like DotD much)

Mew

danatcofo

just curious as I do not ever read about real inflation adjustments to the GDP. Also, what happens to the GDP when we remove the government sector for the figures?

Death_of_the_Donkey

hence the term real GDP.

As for government, it has been subtracting from GDP for the last 2-3 quarters. In Q2 government took off 1.2 points (ie we would have been at 2.5% GDP if government had simply been neutral).

http://twitter.com/bdomenech Ben Domenech

Nice.

RS

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