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Brokered Convention: Rationale and Strategy

By: the_invisible_hand (Diary)  |  January 21st, 2012 at 05:18 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

First step is to justify the idea of a brokered convention. This is an idea that is within the rules. It is not something that is under-handed. It is the age old way we used to select nominees. Abe Lincoln wasn’t so bad and he was selected through a contentious convention. Second, I will explore why this race demands a brokered convention. Third I will look at ways to make it happen.

Okay, so is a brokered convention bogus? It is somehow not a valid part of the process? No. This is easy. The conventions only became coronations in the very recent past of electoral politics. And interestingly, the Republican Party did not write the rules in the 70′s to make a brokered convention impossible. The rules make it less likely, but not impossible. So there are circumstances when a brokered convention is allowed. To suggest this would anger voters and make them feel like they don’t matter, I say BAH! How do voters feel when a nominee is selected by the time three states vote in a primary? When candidates they like are bounced after Iowa and New Hampshire and no one else gets a chance to voice their opinion? A convention is more democratic than that because all states send delegates to defend their interests. So don’t tell me a convention that actually selects the nominee is somehow invalid. Barry Goldwater as nominated by a conservative movement manuvering in a convention.

Next, do we need a brokered convention this year? Yes! Mitt Romney is not a conservative. His defining characteristic is his ambition wh

COMMENTS

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  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    They want a candidate. Even if one doesn’t get a majority of votes, it’ll come down to one or other other, not somebody new.

    Conservatives didn’t get it done this cycle. Rather than whine about it and look for grand schemes to try to change that, we should start now figuring out how to get the conservative candidate in 2016.

    • the_invisible_hand

      Barry Goldwater didn’t do so well in primaries in 1964. But he did the ground work for capturing delegates for the convention.

      It is not whining to point out there are rules in place that would allow conservatives to assert their will in this race.

      If Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich do not have the necessary number of delegates to win on the first ballot of the convention, then the delegates are allowed to vote for whomever and conservatives are the activists that would be in control in a 2012 convention.

      We can get favorite sons on the ballot in some states. We can vote for not-Romney in others.

      It is possible for conservatives to assert some authority over this process again.

      • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

        As I recall, he lost by quite a lot.

        • the_invisible_hand

          Barry Goldwater was running against Johnson right after JFK’s death. There was little chance of winning.

          However, Goldwater build the conservative movement in that campaign. A movement that went on a pretty successful political run for the next several decades.

          If we ran a Barry Goldwater candidate against this president he would win handily.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            You have an assertion.

          • the_invisible_hand

            A brokered convention can provide a terrific conservative that launched Republican dominance of presidential politics.

            Further, everyone that reads the history of that time knows the assassination of JFK killed the Republican chance of winning an election the next year.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            –no-text–

          • trickamsterdam

            The link, from yesterday:

            http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/01/20/brokered_convention_chatter_on_rise

            I don’t really know why anyone would be opposed to one…and I’m starting to not really care. They (virtually everyone I’ve heard opposed to one) make no sense, and the fact that they say we make no sense (while offering no evidence of what or why) only proves it.

            People are talking about it, and not just on message boards. It’s real.

          • trickamsterdam

            http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/01/20/brokered_convention_chatter_on_rise

          • the_invisible_hand

            So I have no idea why some people are so opposed to the idea.

            Conservatives have a very real problem with Mitt Romney. Moderates and pols are concerned that Newt Gingrich can’t win a national election.

            So it makes sense to me that power players are looking to find some way to make sure neither gain the nomination.

            Just because it isn’t the typical strategy does not mean it can’t work.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            I can’t see how that makes a better candidate against Obama. If you can’t even win the votes of your own party, you have no chance against the other party.

            And having your candidate selected in a smoke-filled back room in this age would be an absolute disaster.

          • trickamsterdam

            They’re legitimate bridges between the Tea Party and the Establishment. The candidate at a brokered convention will have to be able to unite conservatives and centrists, and convince people he or she can win.

            So those are the kind of people you’re talking about. If it’s somehow Romney, you were going to get that anyway. You may even keep D attack ads off his back until after the convention.

            “Smoke-filled back room”? LOL. That’s superior to a caucus in Iowa and a small state where Romney has a vacation home choosing for all of us (IMO).

            The real point is you pretended the Diarist was crazy for wanting a brokered convention in your initial posts. He clearly isn’t. Not in the sense of wanting one, and not in sense of thinking one could actually happen.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            He’s done nothing. Nobody knows him, he’s accomplished nothing, and would be eviscerated by Obama.

            Ryan is a congressman. We already have one of those running, and he was the #1 guy in charge of all of the congressmen for 4 years. Actually accomplished something.

            Rubio would be crazy to accept a nomination from a brokered convention. His political career would be over before it started.

            For a bunch of people that think debates shouldn’t determine your candidate you seem to be hot on people that are at this point just windbags.

            And yeah, the diarist is crazy, and this is me laughing at him.

          • greyeagle

            Your comments are not exactly correct. Rubio was the youngest ever Florida Speaker of the House. He is well respected, I don’t think he meets the natural born citizen required for President.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            You really don’t want to go down that road here.

          • trickamsterdam

            Helps our cause.Because it means we’re not crazy or naive. And in fact, that the people so desperately opposed may be.

            So I’m going to try to post that link one more time, which for some reason is getting cut off at the end. But I’m going to try it in a different way.

            This is a link to a post, where I posted it yesterday. If this doesn’t work I give up. But Rush did say it, and a transcript is on his site, if this doesn’t work, and people want to read it:

            http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/01/19/the-horserace-for-january-19-2012/#comment-164274

        • Ausonius

          Among them, John LeBoutillier, who believes that at the end of February no clear winner of the primaries will have emerged, and that calls for (Insert Name Here) to become a candidate and to end the impasse will arise.

          We shall see!

          • the_invisible_hand

            The amount of states where a favorite son or rising candidate could jump in is across the map in March.

            In either the case of someone jumping in and entering in all of the states or a multitude of favorite son candidates, it is very possible to stop any single candidate from reaching the magic number.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    And Santorum is fading.

    We’re not seeing a brokered convention.

    Of course, a brokered convention is another name for a Mittens win, so…

    • the_invisible_hand

      The only way we get to a brokered convention is if there is enough distaste for Romney to move mountains to get one.

      If that is the case then clearly everyone involved will know Romney will not be acceptable. And Romney is most susceptible to soft support of anyone.

      Romney’s support is most likely to compromise and pick a different candidate. Most are only with Romney because they think he’s the winning horse. When he isn’t the winning horse they will be the first to find another wagon to jump on.

      • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

        By having the most delegates, the most connections, and the skills needed to get over the top.

        If by some crazy fluke nobody has a majority early, Romney still wraps it up pretty quick, so that he wins it in a quick, stage-managed series of votes.

        • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

          If you’re really keen on beating Romney, back Gingrich.

        • the_invisible_hand

          All bets are off at a convention.

          I don’t see how you think Romney is so well run and so full of connections. If that were true he wouldn’t be floundering right now.

          Romney is failing and the conservative movement has not yet consolidated behind any single candidate to beat him.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            Do your homework.

          • the_invisible_hand

            Some might be loyal to Romney on subsequent votes, but they don’t have to do so.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            .

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            It’s naive in the extreme to pretend there’s no agenda behind the selections.

          • carolina

            they are NOT newly elected citizen delegates. The professional party structure is well represented at the convention, and they tend to stick together, and they are loyal to the GOP establishment = Romney. Newt has to win the nomination outright, before the convention, if he is going to have a chance.
            Getting a bunch of delegates to the convention can provide some opportunity to influence the platform.

          • the_invisible_hand

            They are certainly not going to go down with the ship for him.

            Romney’s support is the softest of any candidate. The professional establishment tried to get several people to run instead of Romney. They wanted Christie and Daniels. They begged Paul Ryan to do run.

            This idea that Romney and the Establishment are solid pals is not shown in the facts.

  • conservativeparrothead

    When there have been brokered conventions in the past, the reality is that these are people who have indicated they were running for President who were part of the process but did not receive a majority:

    Reagan- Ford in 1976 – Ford got the nomination, but Reagan was a candidate, they didnt pull someone off the sideline.

    In 2008, many thought the Dems might head to brokered convention, but the nominee was going to be either Hilary or Obama, not pulling Al Gore or Howard Dean off the sidelines.

    Same with 68′, had RFK not been assassinated, Chicago was headed for convention showdown, but again, he has been in the race and had won key primaries.

    Here is the deal if those really want a brokered convention, forget favorite sons and all the rest of that nonsense. You need to get your favorite CANDIDATE to agree to run, get their names on as many state ballots as you can, there are still several big ones that you can get on and start to make the case to the voters.

    But the idea, that you are going to pull Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan or whatever other “dream candidate” you cant think of out in Tampa in August, having never been voted on by one American in this process is not going to fly for a party trying to return power to the people and not Washington.

    Time to either accept these are your candidates and choose one OR get your chosen one off the bench and in the damn game!!!