Sorry for my absence the last few weeks, I have been busy sketching and painting new works mocking Jerry Brown. Anyway, onto the projection:

I went back the last two weeks roughly and pulled the available state polling and updated the previous projection. The most noticeable changes are the movement of Pennsylvania slightly back to a tie (Toomey leads Specter by a few points as opposed to 7-8 about a month ago), Missouri back to a small GOP hold… and most importantly the movement of California to a TIE. Fiorina and Campbell are within one point deficits and leads to Boxer…the very “SENATOR!” Boxer who now has a 40% approval rating, according to the LA Times. If the trend out here holds, with Whitman beating Brown and Boxer remaining vulnerable, we could be looking at a 50-50 split in the US Senate, broken of course by VP Biden if it came to that, but still very confounding to the Democrats as opposed to the freewheeling of a supermajority they enjoyed just a year ago.

SOMEONE tell Thompson to just jump in in Wisconsin, please:? He currently crushes Feingold in the college poll, leads slightly in older Rasmussen polls, and if you believe DKos’ ObamaYouth-2008 voter turnout model, faces a deficit but a slighter one than other Republicans there.

The same goes for Rossi and Pataki.

Current likelihood of flip to GOP now:

1) North Dakota 99%

1) Delaware 99%

3) Nevada 90%

3) Indiana 90%

3) Arkansas 90%

6) Pennsylvania 75%

7) Colorado       66%

7) Illinois           66%

9) California       50%  (50 GOP VOTES -TIE IN SENATE)

10) Wisconsin     25% (jumps to 75% with Thompson) (51 GOP Vote Sen Majority)

11) New York      15% (jumps to 66% with Pataki) (52 GOP Vote Sen Majority)

12) Washington   10% (jumps to 50% with Rossi) (53 GOP Vote Sen Majority)

13) Connecticut     5% (54 GOP Vote Sen Majority)

VT, HI, OR, MD unlikely to flip beyond a fraction of 1%

Another one bites the dust. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement in a state that voted 6 points more Republican than the national average and with a history (until 2008) of being safely Republican gives the GOP another pickup there. All of the data since my last projection, besides one poll out of Nevada giving Harry Reid at least a small gain in his numbers, shows the tide is strongly Republican and now makes our path to getting to 51 votes a little easier.

Perhaps the RNC needs to make some serious pushes to Thompson, Rossi, and Pataki…

Likelihood of flipping to GOP:

ND 99%

DE 99%

AR 90%

NV 90%

IN  80% (to be raised when polling data confirms the obvious)

PA 75%

CO 70%

IL   60% –LIKELY SCENARIO GOP 49 DEM 49 IND(D) 2

CA 35%

NY(S) 25% (upped to 60% if Pataki throws in)

WI 15 % (upped to 60% if Thompson throws in)

WA 15% (upped to 50% if Rossi throws in)

CT 10%

NY 5%

VT, OR, MD, HI <1%

I waited patiently for a non-Kirk push poll to come in from Illinois, and the first post-primary poll gives Kirk a 6 pt lead over Giannoulias there. This state is now BARELY GOP Pickup, and I think it will waffle for some time back and forth between leaning red, blue, and undecided. Still, who would’ve thought last January that the Republicans are likely to pick up both Biden and Obama’s old seats?

The announcement of Coats spices things up in Indiana, but without polling data, it is hard to move the scale there. Bayh has $12 million on hand and Coats has to deal with explaining why he retired rather than face Evan in 1998. There’s also that Harriet Miers debacle too.  If however his local popularity and growing voter anger are strong enough, Bayh should start worrying.

Everyone looking at this map is thinking the same thing. We’re THREE SEATS AWAY from taking the Senate.

I bet everyone is also thinking another thing- what will it take to get Rossi, Pataki, and Thompson to just throw their hats in the ring?

Ranking by likelihood of flipping to GOP:

Delaware 99%

North Dakota 99%

Arkansas 90%

Nevada    75%

Pennsylvania 70%

Colorado  66%

Illinois 66% (up from 50/50)

Indiana45% (up from 35%)

New York(G) 25%

California 15% (down from 25% due to dust up between Fiorina and Campbell)

Wisconsin 15%

Washington 10%

Connecticut  5%

Updated yet again with a slew of new polling data. Missouri has seen no new polling data, but the last poll taken courtesy of Rasmussen BEFORE the Scott Heard Round the Electorate had Blunt up significantly. This coupled with the generic congressional ballot trending Republican (per Rasmussen, PPP, NPR, etc) gives him the edge over Carnahan there, breaking the Tie ranking.

Florida is clearly trending heavily to the GOP, with either Crist or Rubio cruising for a win in November.

Arkansas is the big story here- it is now ranked up with North Dakota and Delaware as SOLID GOP pickups.

Polls to look for this week- California, Indiana, and post-primary polls out of Illinois.

Focusing on post-primary polling out of the Land of Lincoln, IF Kirk wins the GOP primary (which is likely), we will see if the cons and indies consolidate behind him as they did with Scott Brown. If a moderate Republican who has been scorned for supporting Cap and Trade can still hold the Republican-Independent coalition, Illinois may tilt in our favor.

Ranking by likelihood of flipping to GOP:

Delaware 99%

North Dakota 99%

Arkansas 90%

Nevada    75%

Pennsylvania 70%

Colorado  66%

Illinois 50%

Indiana 35%

New York(G) 25% (up to 65% with Pataki)

California 25% (up to 40% with Campbell)

Wisconsin 15% (up to 50% with Tommy Boy)

Washington 10% (up to 40% with Rossi)

Connecticut  5%

Maryland, Hawaii, New York (S), Oregon, Vermont, Oregon- 1%

I am going to attempt to update this every 2-3 days as polling data trickles in.

Much has been said on a few blogs about the poll showing a lead for pumpkinhead in Wisconsin if he so chose to challenge Feingold. As he is undeclared, I am not changing the status until either an existing GOP contender polls close, or Tommy Boy actually jumps in.

We have another hypothetical poll as well: Washington state. Even Murray cannot seem to avoid some potential trouble in November, though the match-up proposed against Rossi is iffy at best (like the ballots they “found” costing him the gubernatorial election in 2004). Still, to reflect an ever going trend of Democratic vulnerability, the Washington Senate seat moves down just a tick in the Democrat’s column.

I propose we may even see a similar trend out of Schumer’s in New York if PPP/Rasmussen/Sienna/SurveyUSA/etc bothered to do a poll there.

Currently the only Democratic/Democratic-siding seats that are a lock are:

Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Hawaii, Vermont and Connecticut.

Figured I would update if and when we had any new polling for Indiana, and lo and behold, Bayh isn’t so untouchable anymore. While Pence has dropped out, Hostettler polls now within the margin of error and thus this seat is now BARELY Democratic. More polling out of Pennsylvania courtesy of Franklin  & Marshall shows Specters ridiculous decision to abandon the GOP last year won’t save him from a November booting- in LIKELY voters, he is getting crushed by Toomey, whom he was beating handily just six months ago.

We should expect more polling from Missouri and Illinois, and perhaps some hypothetical match-ups out of Washington and Wisconsin soon. By the way, Missouri based on the latest poll would show Blunt and thus the GOP ahead (Rasmussen pegged him beating Carnahan by 6 last week), however as this is the ONLY poll showing a significant lead for the GOP (and all other recent polls still show Carnahan with a 1-3 pt lead), I will leave it as a TIE until we get some verification from another pollster.

By the way, where the heck is Survey USA?

Back again!

This is the current baseline model based on the polls collected over at pollster.com (including those by Mason-Dixon, PPP, and Rasmussen). Subsequent projections will incorporate the latest polling results.

Currently the balance of power in the Senate is 59 Democrats (57 Democrats plus 2 Independents that caucus with them) versus 41 Republicans.

I currently project that the seats vacated by Dorgan and (originally) Biden will go strongly to the GOP.

I also project that Nevada is a very likely GOP pickup, beyond just from polling we have the general consensus that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in extremely deep trouble in Nevada and is likely to be Daschled. Bennett, Lincoln and Specter have seen their approval numbers crash thanks to their votes on Health Care and the Stimulus Package, and their head-to-head polling against various GOP contenders make these BARELY Republican pickups.

Total gain by Republicans of 6 seats.

The seat in Missouri is being vacated by the Republican incumbent Kit Bond and is hotly contested between Blunt and Carnahan. Illinois in polling has gone back and forth (being vacated by the Democrat) and with multiple contenders from both parties will be difficult to nail down until after the primaries.

Good news currently for the Republicans.

Firstly, Richard Serra is not a Republican. Obvious from one of his appearances at the 2006 Whitney Biennial: Yeah, real nice job there Richie. Reminds me of one of my own pieces chastising Michael Moore- direct, obvious, and terribly forgettable.. There was also his altered version of Goya’s Saturn Eating His Children, with…you guessed it, Bush, used in the 2004 Presidential campaign at the pleasevote.com website. Yes, it was direct political work used for the campaign against Bush, but I expect a little more from Serra, and you’ll pick up why as you read on.

Serra thankfully contributed recently to the Broad Contemporary at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art, with Sequence and Band, two monumental works more reminiscent of his monumental (yet minimalist) site-specific masses of steel prevelant in his earlier career. Transversing both has a psychological impact on the viewer. Their mass both looms and recedes over you, ungulating in alternately comfortable and frightening regularity. Stick with what you do like no other, Richard. Which brings us to my favorite work of Serra, one which should surprise my fellow conservatives:
Tilted Arc, 1981. Federal Plaza, New York, New York. Destroyed in 1989.

It’s very simple. A 120 foot by 12 foot band of COR-TEN steel, slightly tilted and bowed, running diagonally across the plaza, forcing many workers in the plaza to walk its entire length to cross. “The viewer becomes aware of himself and of his movement through the plaza. As he moves, the sculpture changes. Contraction and expansion of the sculpture result from the viewer’s movement. Step by step the perception not only of the sculpture but of the entire environment changes,” so said Serra, confirming the forced encounter to be the very point.

Criticism of the work erupted immediately, most notably from the government workers at the plaza. They complained, incessantly, that it made public use of the plaza impossible. Of course critics had to come up with something worse sounding than that, so accusations of the work as a magnet for the homeless, rats, graffiti, or even terrorists (!) were hurled out there as well. Serra tried to defend the work as site specific, and has been adamant that public art liks Arc is fundamentally undemocratic, so protests from the public against it were moot. That fell on deaf ears, and a public hearing on the matter, despite supportive testimony outnumbering complaints, went 4-1 against Serra. They had ruled it to be removed and placed elsewhere, but as anyone who has experienced a Serra work of this scale up close, you can agree with Richards assertion that it is site specific. Moving it will simply rob it of its purpose and destroy it. So, how does a conservative see this gargantuan obstruction?

Fondly, in fact. Unlike most critics who often interpret works in directions diametrically opposed to the intent of the artist, without admitting to it, I will. This is NOT, I am sure, the works purpose in its creators eyes. But it is in mine. The placement of the work is critical. Federal Plaza workers, mostly of the government variety, screamed bloody murder that it made walking across to get a hot dog or drop off forms longer. Not impossible, just irritatingly longer. Humph. Something massive, out-of-place, and obstructionist. Government itself comes to mind here. Unlike in statist nations, where government really is everywhere you can think of (and would be in your own thoughts if it had its way) “government” here does not stop you from going where you need to go or doing what you need to do, it simply taxes, regulates, and investigates it to the point that you may not want to. It looms over, looms away, much like the ungulating form, but its always there, its presence unavoidable.

The irony in the whole controversy was that government workers themselves were protesting the loudest, complaining that it ‘made their daily work difficult’, something I suspect many of the same workers would scoff at if a member of the public lodged the same complaint about them. Tilted Arc stood as a reminder of the aggrevation a government presence can cause. People will get themselves out of your way in an open space. Cold steel stays put. Serra was dead right about its site-specific nature. It was an unintentional representation of the nature of government- obtrusive and vast. He defended the work by arguing that art isn’t democratic. Fundamentally, government bueracracy isn’t either- it is about controlling what the citizen can and cannot do, where he can and cannot go. That same government ultimately led to Tilted Arc‘s destruction. The only time government seems to work is against itself when part A gets in the way of part B’s footlong and Diet Coke.

The timing of the work, 1981, coincided unintentionally with the rise of Reagan and the GreatLeapRight. Government, as it grew and aged through the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, became seen by an emerging American majority not as a useful part of our lives, but an eyesore, an ugly mass that just seemed to get in our way.

Its a shame that with our current government spending spree, and the Presidents proposals to expand government powers, we don’t have just such a cold, oxidizing mass running the length of the Mall…bending from Capitol Hill to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Richard, are in the market for another arc?

(Images (c)1985 David Aschkenas, Serra quote from PBS Article ‘Culture Shock:Flashpints:VisualArts:Richard Serra’s Tilted Arc- http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/cultureshock/flashpoints/visualarts/tiltedarc_a.html)

from my blog, The Conservative Art Critic…

Here is the dark and simple truth- Californians, typically spend happy, have undergone one of the worst economic downturns in its history. Massive, double-digit employment. Companies packing and leaving every week. While this has gone on, our state legislature decided to throw taxes on all of us. Not just the rich- reducing the child tax credit, hiking the sales tax, hiking the income tax, and doubling the car tax. Worse, the so-called Republican Party in the state failed miserably, with its establishment in Sacremento engaging in a backroom deal to put up the six necessary votes for the budget to pass. We all expect Democrats to tax and spend. When the Republicans cave and do the same “for unity”, we’ve reached the political nadir. Few were honestly paying attention despite the lengthy budget battle. But once the tax hikes kicked in, more people woke up.

Then came the budget propositions, which started off with two-thirds support back in early March. If Survey USA is to be believed (and I firmly think its skewed too heavily to the Democrats in THIS election when other data suggests there will be a massive turnout amongst Republicans and Indepenedents), we are looking a a resounding defeat of 5 of the 6 props. Why this big turn around? Quite simply, we’re ALL pissed. Look at the data from SUSA- minority voters all oppose Prop 1A. Indy voters and Democrats oppose Prop 1A. The friggin’ BAY AREA opposes Prop 1A. Its not just the impact of the taxes, its HOW our state government pushed the proposition- the true opposition to Prop 1A was barred from mentioning the tax increase in the voter guide. In fact, we has to SUE THE STATE to have such information mentioned (in one sentence at the very end, no less) in the voter guides.k The sagging economy has forced families across the state to cut back, and many to leave. 

The anger has grown across the political spectrum. Even ardent liberals have begun calling for marked cutbacks and pension plan reviews for state workers. LAUSD has called for the elimination of tenure, something that has managed to keep some of the worst educators in the state active and happy while threatening newer, younger, more promising teachers with the upcoming budget axe.

Perhaps the most recent accelerant to the opposition is the Governor’s obvious scare tactics- your kid will wander out of a teacherless classroom thats burning out of control only to get kidnapped by a freed criminal who drives off a crumbling interstate on the westside. It was simply too much- since the fear campaign, the opposition gained a majority vote from the Bay Area, blacks, and Democrats.  Not to mention the numbers Arnold has been throwing out- 16 billion in the red without the props, 21 billion with the props. Well, thats 5 billion, so we all need to pay 16 billion more in taxes just to get down to a…16 billion dollar deficit? The damned if we do anyway concept has sealed the deal for much of the rest of the phony budget reform.

I could go of course into the opposition to the other propositions, but thats obvious- the bleeding hearts will never support gutting Rob Reiner’s ed fund or funding for the mentally ill, coupled with the conservative and libertarian anger at the budget proposals 1D and 1E were doomed from the start.

If you are a voter in California- I IMPLORE YOU TO VOTE TODAY, regardless of the massive win we are going to have. It is important that we not only beat the props, but we vehemently reject them by at least a two-thirds margin. Especially if you live in the Bay Area, Reps- your political region is on the verge of actually opposing a tax hike for the first time in ages.

Also, do NOT support Prop 1F- while it is tempting, you are only rewarding the traiterous Republican legislator Abel Maldonado whos flip on the tax issue was the deciding vote that passed the largest tax hike by any state in US history. He deserves to be flogged, not thanked.

Yes, thats right. Its the easiest way to jumpstart the entire economy, and its a “jumpstart” that will continue to put HUGE demands on the economy (retail, housing, transportation, health and human services, warehousing, etc).

A baby boom. and I mean boom. Think about the demand that would be forced on our economy if within 9-24 months we added 20-30 million newborns. Babies become toddlers which become children which become teenagers which become…you get the picture. At each and every stage these exaggerated zygotes demand clothing, medicine, entertainment, food, etc etc etc. We came out of WW2 with a brief jump in unemployment- what are all those people coming home from the war going to do in the factories etc if were no longer making tank after tank? The baby boom itself led to a massive economic boom and demand on virtually every economy sector.

The best part is we dont need to wait 9 months for the economic boom to start…word of the massive jump in pregnancy rates will send retailers and their suppliers scrambling to be at the ready to meet the demand…those currently idle workers and underworked warehouses will see a (recently) unprecedented jump in the need for labor to fill the demands. We could easily save or add 3.5-4 million jobs within a year, without blowing money on resodding a government building.

Some groundrules of course- we dont NEED goverment “baby making checks” to get things going, though im sure those Dems will be whining about the poor mothers just trying to help (heck if we toss a few billion at them its nothing compared to the hundreds of billions they need to dig ditches and fill them back in while paving new roads to nowhere).

The beautiful thing is reproductive freedom we have in our country. Not just the ridiculous choice to terminate life…but to make it…lots of it. No government agency can tell us we cant do this, and whats the WORST that can happen? We may end up with a generation of ungrateful ingrates too self centered to realize what weve done for them, but hell, weve already had that- theyre called Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and my current generation. So whats another goofy group of Americans with their own worries and wills?

Trojan might see a temporary drop in profits, but theyll find a way to make up for it…

Huzzah!

Many of you may recognize me from last year, where I had been posting my election projections for the Presidential race. A few weeks before the election, I dropped off the face of the earth, admittedly because I had a strong inkling the race had dropped itself right at Obamas feet (and, damn Nate Silver, he was pretty close this time). In the 2009 interim, I plan to post on my blog and here a series of brief essays on art. Yes, that beloved thing that for many of my fellow conservatives connotates images of dung-smeared Virgins and Piss Christs. However, I am going to make the case repeatedly that even in the most seemingly anti-conservative works, there are elements of art that are vehemently libertarian/conservative in their nature. Most good art can be interpreted in a variety of ways. We have the Marxist interpretation, the feminist interpretation, so why not the libertarian/conservative view? Art is a tool by which societies invoke their fears, hopes, and displeasures. For years it has been a great outlet for political dissent. For the last eight years, it has been overwhelmingly anti-Bush. What now with The One? Where are the libertarians and the conservatives hounding him down? Where are the visual protests against the California budget snafu? Sure, we do have jobs. But we have free time.

In addition to my essays on various works of art, I encourage fellow artists to email me @ theoneandonlyfinn@yahoo.com with their works. If you like I’ll be happy to offer a critique (a warning- I am a bit brutal sometimes, but hey thats to seperate the good from the stuff more commonly seen smeared crudely on a canvas).

Some of you will love to argue about some of the works I will be discussing ([Piss Christ will be one of the first), so I have a feeling these posts will generate some good discussion.

So I look forward to the yelling in the months ahead.

The first work I will review is the demolished “Tilted Arc” by Richard Serra. a controversal 120 foot long steel strip that temporarily carved the Federal Plaza in NYC in half from 1981 until its destruction in 1989.

Despite a strong week of polling for Obama, McCain has managed to flip his first Kerry04 state in the GE- New Hampshire, which, with the addition of a University of New Hampshire poll, swings ever so slightly into the Republican’s camp. This of course does not take away from Obamas strong week in the national polls, and his gains in Virginia. Obama has polled well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, and California a bit stronger. Of course how much of this is residue from a rough economic week and how much is the subsiding of the McCain convention bounce has yet to be seen.

Mason Dixon will be releasing daily polls, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls morning, noon, and evening daily for much of the remainder of the cycle. SurveyUSA will also be joining in the daily poll barrage, promising over a dozen new state poll results this week.
STATE OF THE STATES PER CANDIDATE (weakest to strongest):
MCCAIN:
NH +0.5, VA +2, NV +2, OH +3, FL +3.75, IN +4, NC +4.5, MO +4.75, WV +7.5, MT +10, AZ +11, ND +12, AR +13, MS +14, SC +14, LA +15, GA +15, TX +15, SD +16.5, KY +18.5, AK +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, KS +27, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.
OBAMA:
WI +2.5, PA +2.5, CO +2.5, MN +3.5, MI +3.75, WA +5, NJ +6, OR +6.5, NM +8, IA +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, CT +13, MA +13.5, MD +14, IL +15, CA +15, RI +21.5, VT +21.5, HI +31, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 24 2008

oh, and for ITLAP day, whats a Pirate’s favorte vacation spot?
ARRRRRRRKANSAS…

HUGE polling dump today by ARG…and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive.
New York has drifted back to a reasonable margin for Obama,though it remains closer than it has been polling all year.
PPP’s poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5.
Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain’s peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can’t break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as “tossups”.
Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs-
Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania….. and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon.
These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- but dont expect any more surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest)
MCCAIN:
CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40
OBAMA:
MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008

Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:While polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama’s 10.5pt lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar pattern. Sure, its Fool’s Gold for Republicans (like neighboring New Jersey), but Obama’s 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the “barely DEM” states). Lastly, we have one credible pollster showing Pennsylvania as a total tie- Rasmussen- bringing the number of Blue states polling tied or advantage McCain to two. As I mentioned in my previous few entries, I have hesitated to call this election McCains to win or lose, but the dynamic has shifted to the Republicans. Once we begin tying states like Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and eating at Obamas leads in states like Washington and New York, the ball is now (albeit barely) in our court.

If you have followed my projections, or those of Nate Silvers @ FiveThirtyEight.com, you will have noticed a marked shift in the campaign.

I have been reluctant to say this election has now shifted to the Republicans’ to lose or win, mainly because much of the McCain surge could be the convention bounce.

However, with the Star-Tribune poll, the momentum has shifted.

For the first time in the general election season, a reliable pollster indicates McCain TIED in a Blue-swing state. Further, the pollster is, shall we say, a bit biased (they dont nickname it the “Red Star” tribune for nothing), and the poll oversamples Democrats- which if readjusted for party ID gives McCain the lead in a state even Reagan couldnt win in 1984.

This, coupled with McCains surge in Washington and Wisconsin, confirms that we have taken the fight to the Democrats turf. We still need to be weary of what happens in Virginia. Florida is pulling away for us, as is the Mountain West.
Colorado needs work.
But now the Democrats are barely (and I mean barely) leading Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire- a bloc consisting of 73 electoral votes. We win any 2 of those states, we needn’t worry about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa or Nevada.

The dynamic has shifted, as the media and the Democrats have erred in unleashing their wrath on the VP instead of McCain. Palin has locked up Montana, the Dakotas, Alaska, the Carolinas, Missouri, and Georgia- all states Obama foolishly pissed away fortunes in.

Defend Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia.

Its a far shorter list than Obama has to worry about…

The first map shows the current projections with just weighted polls:

McCain still has trouble sealing the deal in New Mexico/Colorado or flipping a Kerry state.

Though Washington now goes on the list of states Obama needs to worry about- the last Rasmussen poll there gave Barack a 12-point lead. This one? 2. It now joins the roster of up for grabs states.

When you adjust the current trend to McCain and the popular vote lead hes showing (currently 3.5pts), and you factor that into the remaining undecideds (and his performance amongst the independents which has surged), that “few points” of difference creates a dramatically different map:
With Team Obamas current campaign schedule, methinks the internal polling shows something in between these two maps- a prospect that surely worries the Democrats who are trying to help Barack regain his footing in the race.

Polling will explode from now through election day- Mason Dixon is expected to release about 6-10 polls Sunday, Rasmussen perhaps another 10-20 next week, and who knows what else from everyone else!

Remember, the second map is pure conjecture based off McCains current national polling momentum and the numbers regarding his performance amongst the independents. Until McCain’s polling average puts him ahead in Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Washington, Obama is still winning this thing.

NEXT PROJECTION- SEPTEMBER 15TH

Three weeks ago, the Republican-leaning parts of the map were barely even pink. Now, McCain has only 3 really vulnerable states- Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.
The honor of “barely” holding onto much of ones electoral votes now goes to Obama- with six states all now within the margin of error.

New Hampshire, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri all show stunted or reversed trends in regards to McCain.
But the bulk of the swing states have swung hard to the right since the end of the conventions.

Mason-Dixon should be releasing polls towards the end of the week, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls every weekday @ 5pm EST. PPP will be releasing a new Colorado poll tomorrow- perhaps enough momentum for McCain to flip, and thus lead the Electoral Vote?

McCain’s and Obama’s states below, in order of tiniest to biggest lead:
MCCAIN:
NV +1, FL +2.5, VA +3, OH +4, IN +4, MO +5.5, SD +6, WV +8, GA +9, AZ +10, TX +10, MT +10, ND +10, NC +10, AR +13, SC +13, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, AL +20, KS +20, AK +25, TN +25, OK +33, WY +37, UT +39.
OBAMA:
CO +1.5, MI +2, NM +2.25, NH +3, PA +3, WI +3.5, WA +6.5, OR +6.5, NJ +7, DE +9, MN +10.5, IA +12, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, ME +14, CT +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT+35, DC +65.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2008- perhaps McCain will (finally) be on top?