McCain is up 64 to 19 in the latest poll. That’s 43, not 33.

He should have run for state office first.

I really don’t think JD will lose by 40. But it won’t be close.

You can refer to stuff I’ve written, the latest is linked above.

The bottom line is looks like this in no particular order…

• AZ is NOT a red state, we’re purple. A small conservative slice, mostly moderate, and a good sized slice of libertarians.
• The most conservative voters in the state, which JD would have to win overwhelmingly, are seniors. To them McCain is a national hero and he’s viewed as “one of them”. JD won’t make a dent with them.
• JD is perceived by the voters in Maricopa County – Phoenix – as a tiresome whiner. Comes from his thousands of appearances on Fox when he was in the House. It’s why he lost in 06.
• Most of the voters have a grudging respect for McCain personally even if they don’t like his policies. Those same voters have a visceral personal dislike for JD and he’s never done much to brag about.
• The media hates JD. They’re ambivilant towards McCain.
• JD’s talk show was no big deal in Phoenix and he couldn’t get a syndication deal even with national name recognition. Because he’s a whiner.

because Martha thought she was getting the seat through the Divine Right of Kings & Massachusetts Democrats and forgot there was an election. Brown worked his ass off for months and Martha went on vacation. She also spent all her money winning the primary because she “just knew” she’d only need about $15.00 to beat whoever the sacrificial lamb was. After all, this was Teddy Kennedy’s seat.

The fact that Martha happens to be one of the most inept (stupid?) politicians ever didn’t hurt.

Here in AZ, JD – unlike Brown in MA – is both well known and viscerally and personally disliked by voters. Brown is a very engaging guy personally, JD isn’t. McCain – unlike Martha – didn’t take Hayworth lightly and had a huge pot of money v. Hayworth’s huge pot of debt.

Additionally, Brown caught fire nationally as a new face who might be able to stick our collective thumb in TheOne’s eye at the same time Martha was ignoring everybody. That could not happen here.

The only time this was “close” was Nov 09 when JD wasn’t running and people were just pissed off at McCain and even then McCain was up by two.

Check out the Magellan polling – the link is in the above linked blog of mine – especially the “image” part. People “like” McCain. They don’t feel that way about JD at all, his fav/unf is totally upside down.

the striking distance thingy, assuming they don’t know the conditions on the ground vis-a-vis Hayworth and they’re just looking one poll.

The real dinger is that most of the people making all the noise about Hayworth beating McCain don’t know their you-know-what from a hole in the ground, and I’d bet some of ‘em couldn’t pick out Arizona on a map of the US.

The most interesting note is that this diary hasn’t attracted ANY of the Hayworth ideologues.

whoever wins the Republican Senate Primary will win the General, hands down. Even Deakin could win the General. The Dems are in a total state of disarray, they have no money to contest the Senate Seat, they’re going to have a tough enough time defending three House seats. Oh, and they’re going to nominate the Mexican Lenin from Tucson.

In a “normal” year though, I agree that Hayworth would lose the General. I don’t think he could beat Terry Goddard and I doubt he’d beat Harry Mitchell.

Napolitano ran against Matt Salmon who, IMO, was a great conservative candidate. He’s also a “nice guy” and refused to go on the attack, running a low key issues campaign. As far as you went in your comment you were right. But the real zinger in ’02 (which, as you’ll recall was a pretty good year nationally for Republicans and in AZ Kyl was reelected with a strong margin) Napolitano won the Gov’s race with less than 50% and by less than one point. The tipping point for her, IMO, was the endorsement she got from Joe Arpaio. It gave her the cover to be a “conservative Democrat”.

In 06 I had some foolish hopes for Len Muncil, another great conservative and lousy candidate, and she got 70% of the vote.

You’re right on the money about Brewer. I think Dean Martin could have given her a real run in the Primary but for 1070, which you’ll recall nobody knew even knew if she’d sign until the moment she signed it. Our budget (hers) is a disaster and it’ll be significantly worse the next time out.

moderate R’s thrown in for good measure.

Out and out liberals only get elected in Tucson. Which, BTW, is where the D Senatorial nominee will come from and he make Marx look like Reagan.

Tucson has the House Member who is generally recognized as THE most liberal person in the House.

but, as with McCain, you can’t beat even a bad something with a really bad nothing. Hopefully we’ll start concentrating on recruitment because until that happens McCain and Graham, etal will be the norm.