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Bachmann surges into second place

By: tooncesthecat (Diary)  |  June 16th, 2011 at 03:33 PM  | 

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In the first poll taken following the Republican debate in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann has taken over second place with a strong showing of 19% among likely Republican primary voters.  Romney further tightened his grip on first place with 33% of those polled.  The other candidates who participated in the debate neither gained nor lost support.  This poll is bad news for Tim Pawlenty, who is tied with Rick Santorum for sixth place behind Cain (10%), Gingrich (9%), and Ron Paul (7%), with only 6% support.  Of the announced candidates, only Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in the debate, did worse with 2%.  Neither Sarah Palin nor Rudy Giuliani were included in this poll, which was conducted by Rasmussen on June 14.  The poll confirms what commentators have been saying:  that Michele Bachmann made a strong showing in the debate and had emerged as a credible challenger to Romney for the Republican nomination.

For complete results, here’s the link:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/romney_bachmann_cain_lead_the_pack_among_gop_primary_voters

COMMENTS

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  • YnotNOW

    19% + 10% + 7% + 6% + 6% (I wasn’t sure how to count the Gingrich supporters) = 48%

    Once Conservatives sort out their preferences and settle on the “anti-Romney” candidate, they will sweep the primaries.

    • acat

      is that we must sort out at least most of our differences before we start voting…

      Mew

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      and 8% did not choose any of those listed.

      33% + 19% + 10% + 9% +7% + 6% + 6% + 2% + 8% (undecided) = 100%

    • Flagstaff

      62%. Isn’t that even worse?

      • gekster

        By that logic, they all fall short.
        So I geuss none of them are any good. ;)

        But in all seriousness, polls this far out mean nothing.
        The polls in August and September will be a much better barameter.

        • YnotNOW

          is that Romney is the most well-known, and a large portion of the voters polled will respond based upon whether they perceive him as “centerist and electable” or “not conservative enough, therefore I pick x, y, z” and the x, y and z split the more conservative block.

          I admit this is an oversimplification and very early in the race where name recognition distorts policy support, but the fact remains that if the conservatives can agree on the “anti-romney” candidate (before the voting – yes acat) then they hold the majority and will defeat Romney.

          • Addison

            I disagree. And I think the available facts disagree, too. Romney is the second choice of many voters:

            The persistent problem with all this early polling, of course, is that the field continues to be both big and ill-defined. This is why I like to see a

          • YnotNOW

            is driven in places like RedState, where the conservative activists are thoroughly against Romney’s brand of establishment, centrist Republicanism.

            Sure, Romney is second choice for a significant block of voters, but the more conservative candidates (anti-Romney) still total more than him. If conservatives can coalesce around that candidate.

          • YnotNOW

            is driven in places like RedState, where the conservative activists are thoroughly against Romney’s brand of establishment, centrist Republicanism.

            Sure, Romney is second choice for a significant block of voters, but the more conservative candidates (anti-Romney) still total more than him. If conservatives can coalesce around that candidate.

        • YnotNOW

          is that Romney is the most well-known, and a large portion of the voters polled will respond based upon whether they perceive him as “centerist and electable” or “not conservative enough, therefore I pick x, y, z” and the x, y and z split the more conservative block.

          I admit this is an oversimplification and very early in the race where name recognition distorts policy support, but the fact remains that if the conservatives can agree on the “anti-romney” candidate (before the voting – yes acat) then they hold the majority and will defeat Romney.

          • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

            Before the voting, anti-Romney conservatives will continue to divide their support among half a dozen candidates, as consistently illustrated in the polls, unless one candidate–for example, Michele Bachmann–can break out of the pack. I suspect, however, that Romney would be happy to get 33% in Iowa, as that will assure him of at least 2nd place. It’s only after Iowa knocks out 3 or 4 candidates that the anti-Romney vote will coalesce around a single candidate and that may be too late, as some of those who support defeated candidates will inevitable switch to Romney, perceiving him as the “winner”. In the interim, all of the candidates will continue to compete hard, even in the face of a shrinking reality that they are not going to get the nomination. Ames will be the first real test among them, since Romney is not competing.

          • YnotNOW

            By “before the vote” I was more referring to the first primary (New Hampshire), and allowing Iowa caucuses to do some weeding out.

            But it is a very significant danger that the conservatives will continue to split their anti-Romney vote until it is too late to overcome his lead in delegates.

          • YnotNOW

            By “before the vote” I was more referring to the first primary (New Hampshire), and allowing Iowa caucuses to do some weeding out.

            But it is a very significant danger that the conservatives will continue to split their anti-Romney vote until it is too late to overcome his lead in delegates.