« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

The “Ron Paul” Rule for the Ames Straw Poll

By: tooncesthecat (Diary)  |  July 18th, 2011 at 12:18 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

To be taken as a serious challenger to Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, a candidate has to finish ahead of Ron Paul in the Ames Straw Poll.  This may be a high standard to meet, since Paul is going all out in Iowa to try to win the straw poll.  He paid $31,000 to get the prime location beside the entrance to the  polling place (the same location Romney had in 2007), and his campaign is funding $20 of the $30 price of tickets for all Ron Paul voters.

With Romney on the sidelines, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll will claim the mantle of the anti-Romney candidate.  In addition to Paul, only Bachmann, Cain, McCotter, Pawlenty and Santorum have decided to compete actively in Ames by purchasing tent space and the right to speak at the event.  Gingrich apparently couldn’t come up with the $15,000 entry fee (the Iowa Republican Party doesn’t extend credit), joining Huntsman and Johnson as candidates who will be on the outside looking in.

Bachmann is predicted to win Ames.  If she comes in 2nd, her campaign will take a serious body blow.  If she loses to Ron Paul, her campaign will be seen as a flash in the pan and voters will move on to “the next best thing”. Cain and Pawlenty (who both used to be “the next best thing”) have the most to both gain or lose.  If either finishes behind Ron Paul, they will join Gingrich and Johnson on the list of campaigns that are goners.  Santorum and McCotter will almost surely lose to Paul and will be out of the race and off the podium in future debates.  If either does finish ahead of Paul, it will be the “Big Story” coming out of Ames.

Rick Perry’s supporters are making noises about launching a last minute effort to compete in Ames, which could cause serious damage to a Perry campaign if he doesn’t beat fellow Texan, Ron Paul.  This would be a big gamble for a flegling Perry campaign.  Best for him to sit this one out and let Ron Paul narrow the field for him.  If he does announce his candidacy before Ames and decide to go “all in”, he could become the “Big Story” simply by beating Paul.  He doesn’t really have to beat Bachmann, Pawlenty or Cain in Ames, just Ron Paul.

There is, of course, always the possibility that Ron Paul will win the Ames Straw Poll–he does well in straw polls.  The big winner in that event will be Mitt Romney.  Don’t be surprised that some Romney supporters will in fact put in votes for Paul, just to take out the “serious” opponents.  A Paul win will turn the race on its head and will surely bring Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani in as candidates.

One thing is for sure, the Ames Straw Poll always adds drama to the campaign.  Expect the same this year.  There will be winners, losers, and Ron Paul.

Tags: , , ,
Get Alerts

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • Jim Tomasik

    In my mind, it does not matter where Paul places. It matters where the top three who are not Paul place. They are the top three.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      Fact: Ron Paul is not going to get the nomination.
      Fact: The Ames Straw Poll is the best indicator of who will win and strongly contend in the Iowa caucus.
      Therefore, anyone who can’t beat Ron Paul will immediately have their campaign down-graded to DOA. For those campaigns, money and media attention will disappear. Makes no difference whether you finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th–you have to beat Ron Paul or go home.
      Winners advance to the Mitt Romney Challenge Round–best 2 out of 3 in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

      • ryanj0772

        SO – whoever beats Ron Paul in the straw poll will be Romney’s legitimate challenger(s) UNLESS Paul wins the straw poll in which case Romeny will be the winner. Great logic.

        That idea is almost as logical as your assertion that it is a ‘Fact’ that Ron Paul is not going to get the nomination. I must say that your journalism is shoddy at best.

        Ron Paul vs. Barack Obama 2012

        (unless you just wanna give the ’12 election to Obama in advance)

        • mikeymike143

          the republican nomination. and history proves it!!! in 2008, paul won a bunch of internet and straw polls. and his delusional paulbots talked him up like he was actually a serious candidate. but when the republican primary rolled around, he only got 5% of the vote. so that means 19 OUT OF 20 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES REJECTED PAUL. that’s the reality of where paul stands with republican voters.

        • Jim Tomasik

          Toones said:

          “Therefore, anyone who can

  • acat

    I’d like to see if we can separate out the reality from the likely media narratives a little more…

    The media are in a bind – they either need the GOP to run someone they can live with (i.e. Romney, Huntsman) or run someone who can’t beat Obama (i.e. Ron Paul) as happened in 2008… They could have lived with McCain….but expected him to lose to Hillary. (him losing to Obama was even better…for them…)

    What I’d expect from a Ron Paul bought-and-paid-for win at Ames is a short narrative of “scrappy underdog beats Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty”, i.e. use the narrative to define and denigrate the actual conservatives in the race, in parallel with a re-airing of all the Ron Paul dirty laundry from 2008 and before and attempts smear Bachmann, Cain, and Pawlenty with it.

    This is the danger I see in a Ron Paul candidacy, and is part of why – although I may be a libertarian-leaning cat – I do *NOT* want him as the GOP nominee. Too easy to beat in the general, Ron Paul practically defines “unelectable”, while at the same time providing the media with dirt to try to stick to other conservatives.

    And people wonder why I despise the man.

    Mew

    • jonnymuffin

      but if he did, I think he would win in a landslide.

      Many D’s are pissed at Obama, and would vote for Paul, many are switching parties to do just that.

      http://www.facebook.com/bluerepublican?sk=wall

  • lineholder

    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/07/18/oh-my-perry-edges-obama-in-north-carolina-poll/

    But get this part of it….
    In fact, Obama only get 69% of Democrats, and only 60% to

    • acat

      Many are now either retired or dead. (grin)

      Most of the rest changed to being Republicans as the Dems moved further and further left.

      If you’re using the term to describe the demographic, then I’d think you can cite GOP wins in Wisconsin and Minnesota as validating your theory. Obama is in deep trouble, unless the GOP can be persuaded to nominate another useless “my turn” drone like Romney or an out-and-out loon like Ron Paul.

      Mew

      • lineholder

        although I do recognize that this demographic, even though it doesn’t have the standing it once had in national politics, still very much exists amongst the general public, so I’d agree with your summary about WI and MN wins.

        Yeah, if this demographic shifts towards a candidate like Perry, then your statement about Obama being in trouble is very much so true!

        Acat, don’t want to go too far off thread here, but what do you think about Perry/Cain ticket?

        • acat

          the demographic “Reagan Democrats”. That is, blue-collar workers who will vote GOP when we run actual pro-family pro-nation candidates, i.e. Reagan.

          As for your Perry/Cain threadjack, I’ve got two concerns. First, it’s a very southern-centric ticket. A Perry/Bachmann or Perry/Pawlenty ticket would make more sense, despite the “party of whitey” meme. That would – maybe – also get some synergy going between Perry/Bachmann and whoever’s running to replace MN Gov. Dayton.

          I’ve also got some concerns about just where Cain stands on some liberties. One of the contributors over at Ace of Spades brings up a valid point regarding Cain’s recent statements on the Murpheesboro mosque debacle. Read here (Warning: It’s Ace of Spades, their commenters do not practive political correctness, nor pull any punches)

          There’s a couple different “rights” at play – right of landowner to use the land as he or she wishes, right of neighbors to have some say-so over the use of ajacent land, right of freedom of religion, right of freedom of association….

          While I find that I agree with Cain’s position that a city government can ban groups from building within the city limits (akin to denying permits to WalMart or the KKK) I also disagree with Cain’s position as the mosque developers have – as far as I can see – followed the rules, purchased land legally, and are seeking permits legally. Have they done a good job of outreach? Not so much…

          I am aware that there is a very strong correlation between Islam and terrorists, but .. that doesn’t mean that all Muslims should be deported (Red State would be a lesser place without our resident Muslims) and it certainly doesn’t mean a mosque should be forbidden by a city just because it’s a mosque.

          I’m not convinced Cain didn’t step in it here… and would like for him to clarify his position before supporting him.

          As for Perry, while I like what I see so far, I’m not a Texan, and several of them have been .. less than enthusiastic .. about him.

          Mew

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      They pre-date Ronald Reagan and explain why (until 2010) the state government was primarily under the control of Democrats, while Republicans won the Presidential and U.S. Senate elections.But what will cost Obama in NC is an unemployment rate that’s higher than the national average and a real unemployment rate of 17.5% when you include people who have given up looking for work. That’s Great Depression numbers in a state that prided itself on a diverse economy that made it “recession-proof”–at least until Obama came along. Jesse Helms may be dead, but the Jessecrats are alive, well, and in control.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    We have been looking for a winnable conservative.

    The silly Ron Paul ‘rule’ must have missed the fact that it didnt quite work in 2008.

    In 2012, we see a similar dynamic. Romney will win so long as conservatives are divided into various camps and 2nd tier not-quite-nominatable candidates. What holds them back is the electability bugaboo.

    Well, Perry will shatter that completely.
    - has the experience and record
    - can run on jobs
    - can articulate well
    - strong conservative record and stances
    - can unite social and Tea Party conservatives

    And most importantly, can beat Obama.

    He may or may not be in the straw poll. No matter. If Perry jumps in, he’s top tier. if he runs, he will win the nomination and the election in 2012. You heard it here first.

    • devereaux

      Just read over at National Review that Perry has been meeting with several of Bush’s foreign policy advisors. Doug Feith being one. Tommy Franks called Feith the ( F Word) stupidest guy on the face of the earth.” He shouldn’t touch these guys with a ten foot pole.

      • Scope

        you would want the most recent foreign policy info you can get. Other than meeting with Obama’s foreign policy advisers, who would you go to to get the most current info? After all, it’s an ever changing situation. John Bolton was also a George Bush appointee, and who knows if Perry is speaking with him also. I’d love to see Bolton as the Secretary of State in the next administration, despite the fact that he was a Bushie at one time.

    • zooboy

      For starters,
      1. His HPV vaccine for schoolgirls executive order fiasco attempted to degrade parents rights.
      2. His attempted ramrod of the Trans-Texas Corridor on Texans would have degraded private property rights.
      3. He served as Texas Chairman of the Guiliani ’08 campaign. Pro-Abortion, Pro-homosexual marriage were and are two of Rudy’s typical social issues positions. Perry must have an interesting definition of ‘social conservative’.
      4. He’s done nothing substantial to stop the flow of illegal aliens across the Mexico border. “the Border Patrol won’t let him”.

      These are all telltale RINO signs. RedStaters of all people should be able to spot them.

      Bachmann, Cain, Palin, and Santorum are true conservatives, and much less likely to sell us out after they’ve been elected.

  • Scope

    That is just too too funny. You give Paul way too much credit for setting any markers anywhere, including with the Ames. You seem to be aware that Ron Paul has bought most every straw poll from the 08 campaign season on, by acknowledging his buying tickets for his supporters, yet you put any credibility to where he or any of the other candidates place in that poll, depending on how many votes he’s willing to buy. Oh, for sure, Romney has been known to do the same. Thank you God, this will be the last election season we will have to see Mr. Prune face in the presidential election season, and in Washington, period- Yeaaaaaah!

    You also underestimate the support that Perry has been getting across the country, with his liberal, trial lawyer, and Paul detractors of course trying to destroy his candidacy before he even gets in, but, it ain’t working. Perry will be the consensus nominee. Freedoms Truth wants to claim that you heard him first with a Perry win, ha, he needs to get in line behind izoneguy and me. LOL. Do you really seriously believe that Ron Paul can have any affect on Perry’s campaign? Woooosh, that’s like driving 10 miles to the bank to deposit 2 cents.

    The Ames straw poll will in fact be meaningless until Paul is no longer putting himself on the national stage to be laughed at, while he tries to buy his way into the presidency. All straw polls and on line voting will be meaningless until Paul exists the stage.

    When Perry gets in, it’s a whole new day, and everything starts over. Quoting Rush.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      It wasn’t even meaningless when candidates bused in supporters from out-of-state, washed the ink off their hands, and bought multiple votes per person. But you give Toonces too much credit–its the media and the money that will decide the meaning of the Ames Straw Poll this year. In 2008, Romney spent $2 million to win and Huckabee was the big story with a 2nd place finish after spending almost nothing.

      This time, the media and the money are looking to see how well Bachmann, Cain, and Pawlenty do in the straw poll–and finishing ahead of Ron Paul will be judged “success”. Finishing behind Ron Paul for any or all of them will be “finished”.

      As for Perry, I also believe he has locks on the nomination– if he doesn’t make a serious blunder. Entering the Ames Straw Poll this late and losing to Ron Paul would be a serious blunder. he won’t lose any support by not competing. Of course, if he enters and wins, then he has huge momentum that can carry him all the way to the Iowa caucus.

      • jerry39

        Which is the whole subject of the diary. If there is a lesson to be learned its that Ron Paul didn’t learn the lesson in 08 that buying straw polls will not get him 1 inch closer to the nomination. Here’s a headline –

        RP wins Ames straw poll. If you recall RP won 287billion straw polls in 2008, but failed top 3rd in any state’s primary.

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    First jerry39 said:

    The Ames straw poll will in fact be meaningless until Paul is no longer putting himself on the national stage to be laughed at, while he tries to buy his way into the presidency.

    And when toonces wrote that “the Ames straw poll is never meaningless, jerry39 said:

    But RP’s place in it is… “meaningless”

    Which is it? I clearly think both statements are false. The Ames straw poll is not meaningless, because the media, the money, and the voters of Iowa place a great deal of stock in the “perceived” winners. RP’s place is not meaningless, because he sets the standard for the other candidates who decide to compete in the straw poll: Beat RP and go on; Lose to RP and go home. The proof’s in the pudding, but watch what happens to every candidate, iand especiallly Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain, if they finish behind Ron Paul.

  • jerry39

    I didn’t say that first comment – Aaron did

    They wouldn’t be inconsistent, if I did

    When a straw poll bears no reemblence to and provides no indicator of what the electorate will actually do – its pretty meaningless

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    It was still early in the morning. I agree that “most” straw polls are meaningless, but Ames has been given meaning by the candidates and the media. So the results of Ames do matter, and clearly affect the campaign and the results of the Iowa caucus.

    Personally I find it abhorrent that a candidate can literally “buy the vote” and get a great deal of publicity and momentum as a result. But, it is what it is. This time around, how well RP does and how well others do in relation to RP does matter. And since we agree that RP is not credible (to be kind to him), losing to RP in Ames is a body blow from which a candidate will not be able to recover. This is in no way intended to be pro-Ron Paul. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      I’ll wake up enough to click Reply instead of starting a new thread.

    • jerry39

      I am not saying all straw polls are meaningless or even that this one is meaningless.

      Ron Paul’s results in straw polls are meaningless – because we know from experience that his supporters flood straw polls to give the appearance of more support than there actually is. The results aren’t viewed as legitimate as they relate to him, and so if he beats so and so it doesnt really mean anything as it relates to so and so either.