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Ames straw poll ballot helps Perry and Palin

By: tooncesthecat (Diary)  |  July 24th, 2011 at 06:25 PM  | 

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and hurts Romney, Huntsman, and Gingrich.  How can that be true when Perry’s and Palin’s names were left off the ballot by the 17 member committee?  Because the committee included (for the first-time) a blank line for write-in candidates and decided to count and report the write-in totals.

Since perception is 90% of the result of the Ames Straw Poll, this means that Perry and/or Palin can be declared winner(s}, simply by getting enough votes to place ahead of some of the announced candidates who were included on the ballot–and it shouldn’t be hard to defeat at least Huntsman, Gingrich and even Romney because they have decided not to compete in the straw poll.  At the same time, since their names aren’t on the ballot, there is no expectation that they will receive anything but a marginal number of votes and therefore can’t have their potential candidacies damaged by the results.  Sounds like a win-win situation and Perry supporters already have a 527 in place to take advantage of this situation.  Expect a similar, but less organized groundswell for Palin.

Romney, Huntsman and Gingrich are significantly damaged by having their names on the ballot.  They had already announced they would not compete in the straw poll, did not purchase tent space, will not be allowed to speak, and aren’t buying tickets.  And yet, one of the three of them will be announced as finishing in last place, and all three will probably finish 7th, 8th, and 9th places among the listed candidates.  Rick Santorum may even be able to claim, “I beat Mitt Romney.”

Among the six who have ponied up the $15,000 minimum entry fee (Ron Paul paid the most at $31,000), the straw poll could also prove to be as much bad news as the potential for good news.  Imagine if you’re Tim Pawlenty and you come in 5th behind Bachmann, Perry, Palin, and Cain.  That’s a death sentence, whereas coming in 3rd behind Bachmann and Cain may have left his campaign still alive, although barely.  The only person totally unaffected by any of this is Ron Paul, who doesn’t really care who he beats or who he loses to or how many votes he gets for that matter.

So, expect when the dust settles in Ames and the votes are counted and announced that within a few days, the Republican field will narrow significantly–and Mitt Romney will know he’s in for a serious fight for the nomination.  And we’ll know with whom.

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  • Scope

    that while Ron Paul is still running (again and again) any straw poll results will be suspect. Ron Paul can only win in straw polls where he can bus in supporters, and buy votes. I don’t blame Perry or Palin for not participating, and wasting their $ on something that can be bought, rather than honestly won. Obviously the sham is not worth it to them.

    I was devastated to learn that the Values Voters Summit, in October, in Washington, will have Ron Paul as an invited and confirmed guest. They also have a 2012 presidential straw poll. I seriously considered getting on the train and attending the event. I have changed my mind. I refuse to attend any event that undoubtedly will be overrun with the rude Paul supporters. They are predictable. They ruined CPAC this year, and, I am afraid I would wind up in jail if I encountered them anywhere. Bad move on a family values event that Paul does not in any way support. I suspect the Paulies will be very vocal with the national security supporters/speakers.

    • acat

      Let me say at the start, Scope, that I am not disagreeing with you, and that there’s no tricks here. I’m just trying to clarify why Ames still matters, even though Ron Paul is buying a high finish for himself.

      Let’s say I take a glass 32 ounce cup, fill it half full with Pepsi, and then pour in a cup of amonia. Ruined the whole thing, throw it out, right?

      I have the idea that this is similar to the way you’re thinking of Ames .. that the presence of bought-and-paid-for (and rude) Ron Paul supporters renders the results garbage. If I’m wrong, that’s fine, just let me know.

      The way I see it, though, it’s more akin to Ron Paul supporters spraypainting gang tags on a highway sign. The sign’s still readable, even with their garbage all over it.

      That is, if Perry and Palin do well in Ames, better than Romney and Huntsman without spending any real money or time, they win – even if they place behind the “declared” candidates.

      The counterpoint, unfortunately, is that if any of the “declared” candidates can’t spend enough to beat Ron Paul, then .. that’s a problem.

      Mew

    • devereaux

      Ames is about organizing. In 2008 Romney spent a fortune getting his voters to the event. I suspect Michele Bachmann will win because she is a native and runs very strong among Evangelicals.

      And why wouldn’t the Values Voters invite Ron Paul?? He is the epitome of family values being married to the same woman for 54 years with 5 Kids and 15 Grandkids.

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    While Paul has won the CPAC, Liberty Caucus of California, and Republican Leadership Conference Straw Polls–there have been lots of polls with lots of winners. Romney has notable won the New Hampshire, National League of Cities and Ohio straw polls. Rick Santorum won the South Carolina straw poll. Herman Cain, the Tea Party straw poll in Phoenix. Let’s not forget that at one point Mitch Daniels was a hot topic and won the Dorchester Conference straw poll in Oregon. And then there was Mike Huckabee’s big win in the York County South Carolina straw poll. The point is — Ron Paul wins the internet straw polls with multiple voters–but not state and interest group straw polls.

    Plus–Ames is different from every other straw poll. The media gives Ames serious attention, as do the candidates who choose to compete. Ames is a predictor of how well one will do in the Iowa caucus. So Ames does matter. It matters where one finishes if you are a declared candidate–and especially beating Ron Paul is important because he does attempt to rig the process. But then so does everyone who decides to compete.

  • expanding_man

    Palin and Perry have upside at Ames, but no downside. You had better believe that they will organize for a good showing while downplaying that that is what they are, in fact doing. Smart strategy. If the other second tier candidates fall behind Perry or Palin in Ames, then it’ll be a death blow. Pawlenty recognizes this and is putting in a serious effort to make a decent showing.

    Ames is a test of each candidates organization. To a large degree it’s about money, time and grassroots effectiveness.

    The losers will cry that those that did well, “rigged” the vote. In reality, the losers lacked the ability to bring money, time and supporters to bear on the vote. It’s politics and Ames matters.