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Latest RCP Electoral College Map focuses our attention

By: tooncesthecat (Diary)  |  May 3rd, 2012 at 03:14 PM  | 

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RealClearPolitics has revised its electoral college map today and now shows only nine states in the “toss up” category.  Nevada and Pennsylvania have been moved to the “Leans Obama” category, giving Obama a total of 253 electoral college votes.  Romney is shown with 170 electoral college votes and a very narrow pathway to victory.  In order to defeat Obama, Romney

1.  Must win Arizona.  This is a traditional Red State and if Romney loses Arizona he would have to win all of the other toss up states except for New Hampshire.

2.  Must also win Florida and Ohio.  Winning either of these puts Obama over the top.

3.  Probably must win both North Carolina and Virginia.  If Romney loses either of these two, he would have to run the table with the four remaining states.

4.  Must win either Missouri or Colorado.  If he wins both, he wins the election.  Lose both and lose the election.

5.  If he doesn’t win both Missouri and Colorado, he must win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Given this map, Romney has two major decisions.  First, does he play the hand that has been dealt him or does he try to expand the map?  Second, who does he choose as a VP running mate given this map?  This would seem to narrow the choices to Rob Portman (Ohio), Marco Rubio (Florida), or Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire).  He has time to make both of these decisions and should do so very carefully, ignoring all other distractions and competing interests.  The goal is 270 and the path to victory is clear.

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  • barleycorn

    RCP has South Carolina in the “leans Republican” group. In 2008 McCain-Palin won it 54-45. Barack Obama has a better chance of getting Michelle to laugh at a composite joke than he has of winning South Carolina.

    • exitsfunnel

      Just out of curiosity, what does that reference mean?

      -exits

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        I assume the reference is the “composite girlfriend” in Obama’s Dreams of My Father, which he just admitted was not a real white female that he dated and that the events recounted didn’t really happen.

        • exitsfunnel

          Didn’t know anything about that. Thanks.

          -exits

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      Karl Rove (www.Rove.com ) actually has SC in the “toss up” category. Out of the 9 toss up states in the RCP map, Rove has Obama currently “winning” Ohio, New Hampshire, & Colorado with Romney winning Arizona. He only has six toss ups, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Iowa and South Carolina. Obama would win the election with 282 electoral college votes. Look for the map to change this week with Ohio moving to toss up. Rove’s map is based on current polls and you can subscribe to it free of charge by going to www.rove.com.

      • zfwoodward

        Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia has SC as safe and NC as leans Republican. I think he does a better job than either Rove or the New York Times’ Nate Silver at this sort of thing, Sabato’s more level headed and doesn’t rock the data to get headlines like Rove does from the right, and Silver from the left. Also, up in Maine, there is a chance that Romney will pick up one electoral vote from the Second District. We finally have put up a good candidate to challenge Rep. Mike Michaud, and if that race is as close as I think it will, Romney has a good shot at the district as well.

        http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/plan-of-attack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/

        • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

          Both Rove and 270towin are simply basing their maps on the latest poll and there hasn’t been a poll in South Carolina since an NBC poll in December 2011 which had Obama ahead by +3. So yes this is a ridiculous projection based upon faulty methodology. I live in SC and trust me this is not a toss up state.

          • barleycorn

            Projecting states based on current polling (much less stale polling) is not useful.

    • Tbone

      NFL nose tackle is missing his ass.

  • APA Guy

    These states McCain won last time, and I see no reason why Romney won’t similarly win them:

    AZ, MO

    That brings him up to 191.

    Romney will win NH…neighboring state, even Obama’s people seem resigned to losing that state…195…

    Romney was leading the last poll in IA…201…

    He needs 68 beyond that point.

    New polls out show Romney and Obama bascially tied in OH and FL…VA and NC are also tied. If Romney wins them all, he wins 75 more EVs for a total of 276. That means he could lose IA or NH and it wouldn’t matter.

    Something else…RCP is giving Obama MI…and the only poll conducted there during the past month has Obama +4. I’m not ready to give him MI or PA just yet.

    Let’s also remember that we have a LONG time to go until November. The economy is trending very poorly, notwithstanding the jobless claims numbers out today. If hiring remains anemic and gas prices continue to rise ($4.01 today in Fort Wayne), don’t expect Obama’s rosey RCP electoral outlook to continue.

    • exitsfunnel

      I mostly agree with this though I would say that it really depends more on the perception of the economy than it does on the actual metrics. Right now the general perception is that things are getting better and, barring scandal or some other major outside event, Romney can only win if that perception changes. I think that the media will play an even larger role than usual by virtue of their ability to subjectively cover the kind of modestly growing economy we have at the moment.

      Regarding his electoral strategy I think that he should shoot for essentially the 2004 map with the exception that he should target NH with the realization that he will likely lose at least two of NM, NV and CO. Beyond 2012, the GOP really is going to have to figure out what to do about hispanics but given the right environment Romney can still win this election without doing any better than McCain did.

      -exits

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        with the change in electoral college votes, Romney can actually lose all three–NM, NV and CO– and still get to 272, if he holds Iowa, which Bush won in 2004 or 270 if he loses Iowa and wins NH, which Bush won in 2000.

        • exitsfunnel

          If Romney wins I think that it will be really close to what you lay out above with him winning both IA and NH but losing two or three of NM, NV, CO.

          Obviously he needs to win VA for this to work and that’s the one that I think is going to kill him unless something really shakes up the race between now and the election. I should add that I also think that Allen -vs- Kaine is a good race for the dems which doesn’t help on the presidential front.

          -exits

          • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

            If Romney wins Virginia, he can actually lose all three–NM, NV, and CO–and he only needs to win either Iowa or NH. The electoral college map is kinder to Romney than it was to Bush. This assumes, of course, that he also wins AZ, MO, FL, OH, and NC. I don’t see him having a path to victory without those five. He can win without Virginia, but it is infinitely more difficult.

          • Jack_Savage

            Believe me, the McDonnell victory was a referendum on Obama.

          • earlgrey

            People are sayign that they have had so many people come to VA for govt. jobs that the state is definitely purple if not blue. Politico had an article about it as well.

            I wonder what would happen if Romney wins popular vote and Obama wins electoral college. You can’t argue with the results, but the left will be turning somersaults again.

          • Jack_Savage

            I don’t know much about their track record on predicting things, but based on personal experience here in NC, they are nothing more than leftist push-pollers. I pressed the buttons that indicated I was a black woman just to see what the questions would be like, and suffice to say that I was suddenly on their list to poll, and got plenty of questions like “Would it change your answer if you knew that Republicans killed babies and sprinkled their blood on their doorposts?” When I finally got tired of the calls, I pressed the buttons for “white male”, and haven’t heard from them since.

          • earlgrey

            No polling outfits every call me. I have been dying to get to fake my information.

            I guess it is because I live in a predominately democrat area of a predominately republican state. No one cares.

          • earlgrey

            People are sayign that they have had so many people come to VA for govt. jobs that the state is definitely purple if not blue. Politico had an article about it as well.

            I wonder what would happen if Romney wins popular vote and Obama wins electoral college. You can’t argue with the results, but the left will be turning somersaults again.

          • commonsenseobserver

            He must persuade America that Obama was the wrong choice, AND that he is the best choice.

        • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

          I will be happy with a 2000 map final result.

    • Viet71

      Florida: Mixed bag, but basically conservative.

      North Carolina: Has moved leftward but is generally highly educated; the thinking person’s vote goes to Romney, even if not enthusiastically.

      Ohio: Another very mixed bag, but basically conservative.

      Virginia: Most interesting of all. Left and Right in one basket. The Leftists here are pragmatists — lobbyists, government-types, hangers-on. Romney has an excellent chance here.

      But wait: Obama will push down gas prices and jack up the stock market beginning in July or August.

      My take: Romney will thrash Obama in the debates.

      • APA Guy

        FL…I think Obama will lose this state BIG. He is already trending terribly there…that’s the 1/2…

        Agreed completely Romney whips him in the debates. Romney several times spanked Newt, who is a far more polished debater and pool of knowledge than Obama.

      • exitsfunnel

        I expect Obama to win VA. Gotta keep those DC checks coming. To me the interesting state is OH because both candidates seem like such bad fits for that state. There are going to be a lot of working class whites frowning at their ballot on election day.

        -exits

        • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

          then Romney has to bring at least one more state into play or he will be in the situation of having to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire–all three. The most likely additional state would be Nevada. Interestingly, if Obama were to win Colorado and Virginia and Romney were to win all of the rest plus Nevada, the election would be a 269 – 269 tie. Romney would become President if the Republicans hold onto a majority of states in the House.

          • zfwoodward

            Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that don’t give the electoral votes by a winner-take-all system, rather the statewide winner gets the two votes from Senators, and the winner of each congressional district gets an electoral vote. Obama carried Nebraska’s 2nd district in 2008, so we need to make sure that doesn’t happen again. Also, in Maine the 2nd district got more conservative due to redistricting, and the incumbent Dem Mike Michaud is going to have the toughest race of his career, likely linking the district’s electoral vote to the outcome of Michaud vs. state Senate president Kevin Raye.

        • dbkohl

          As a Buckeye, I have to agree, neither candidate fit well here. Obama isn’t popular at all due to his last 4 yars of economy, healthcare, etc… and republicans are less than in good graces due to Kasich actually making hard choices that ruffles more than a few feathers.

          I think a regional VP pick (Santorum or Portman) would help here. Going conservative with VP would help in a few of the other toss ups with christian conservative leanings (NC, VA).

  • Kyle-MI

    Incumbent Rule

    Basically it states that undecideds break unevenly toward the challenger. The carry away message is “… at any given moment, the President’s percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating [the two contenders].” Having previously gone through a national general election, the incumbent is a much better know quantity than the challenger so there are fewer undecideds to convince in his favor.

  • Kyle-MI

    A state that most consider safe but is actually in play.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      Obama did not need to win NC in 2008–that just added to the blow out over McCain, like Indiana. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, the election is headed towards a blow out in his direction. Romney should keep his eye on the prize–270 electoral votes, not 290 or more.

      • Kyle-MI

        PA looks better than NV or VA at this point. Or to put it another way, I would put resources into PA.

        • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

          in the latest polls of registered voters with Obama ahead by +7 or +8. But the last Rasmussen poll of likely voters in Virginia had Romney ahead within the margin of error. My first question, however, was whether Romney should try to expand the map or not. I take it that you are voting “yes”.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            it is shaping up for a big defeat of Obama, because the challenger usually grows in strength as the election approaches.

          • ww2nd95

            is in pretty good shape being this far out from the election, but do not underestimate Axlerod. I’m hoping Romney kicks it into gear, but he has to be careful. Sometimes he truly does come across as being the out of touch elitist they’re trying to paint him as. I think he’s improved quite a bit recently, but then he sits down and someone gives him cookies from a popular bakery, then he tries to be funny and completely fails, and doesn’t look to good in the process. Next thing you know, it’s national news.

            He just needs to reign in his off the cuff remarks, because the MSM will scrutinize each one, until a non-story becomes a story and is on every news paper in the country, followed up by ads with him 20 years ago holding 100$ bills in his mouth and in and the pockets of his 5k$ suit, while saying “I don’t follow NASCAR, I’m just good friends with some of the owners”.. Harmless statement, harmless picture, becomes a headline for the nation to see, which is what I’m talking about..

          • exitsfunnel

            I think that PA is fools gold for the GOP. It’s not quite NJ in that respect, but I really don’t expect it to go for Romney (unless circumstances change and Romney wins in a blow-out of course). I’ve spent hours playing with the electoral map and I stand by what I said upthread. I think that unless the environment swings sharply in his favor between now and the election, which is surely not impossible, Romney’s only shot is to try to replicate the 2004 map plus NH and minus the swingy SW states. I just don’t think that he’s the kind of candidate that opens things up.

            -exits

          • dbkohl

            … and help things in OH…

            The EPA hysteria around energy. Both coal and now natural gas from shale are important to these economies. Obama hasn’t made any friends here.

            I don’t put PA totally out, unless we ignore it now and from here on out. However, we need to see who the VP is to see how the electoral map shakes up. That may put hopeless states in play, or stagnate momentum in certain toss-ups.

          • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

            Both 270toWin and the latest USAToday/Gallup poll have PA listed as a toss up state. While some would say differently, I think it’s a state that Romney would do well to allocate time and resources to, if for no other reason than to make Obama play defense in a state he has to win, but Romney doesn’t have to win.

    • GregInFla

      So can anyone tell me what the Libertarians are going to do this year in NC?

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        the Libertarians in NC are the real loons. They had less than 50 people at their recent state convention. They are holding a state-wide Presidential Primary on May 8, which happens to be 3 days after the Libertarian Party’s national convention chooses its nominee. They typically poll about 12,000 votes, for President, but did double that number in 2008 with McCain as the Republican nominee. So in a normal election, they have zero impact, and even in 2008, McCain would have needed 2/3rds of the Libertarian votes to defeat Obama in NC. My best guess is that with Gary Johnson as the Libertarian nominee, he will cut into Obama’s university, pot smoking student vote as much as he does Romney. But the true believer Libertarians would stay home rather than vote for Romney. I used to live in North Carolina.

  • GregInFla

    Romney needs a true conservative VP on the ticket. But we cannot afford to take one currently serving in Congress or a governor’s mansion. So here it is, my pick for VP on GOP ticket:

    Fred Thompson

    Fred could be Romney’s Dick Cheney (and those are big shoes to fill.)

    Fredheads unite!

    • clintonformccain

      You want Romney to pick Fred Thompson as VP? Don’t you think it’s time for Republicans to start going just a wee bit more youthful than that?

      • GregInFla

        Romney needs conservative creds. Youth is not always a benefit. Fred knows DC, like Dick did. At this point, Fred has no aspirations for POTUS. And age is not all that bad when trying to get the Florida and Arizona votes. As a Floridian who supported Rubio early in is campaign as he drove the state, I want him in the Senate. Crap, Nelson will likely get re-elected here to the Senate. Good Senators and Governors need to stay where they are at. And can you imagine Thompson debating Biden just once?

        • PowerToThePeople

          but I really can not see on advantage he would bring to the ticket. While he is a recognizable face, I do not think he has any political sway left to bring in many new votes nor do I think he will do much to excite the majority of the conservative base. Even if one concedes that he would decimate Biden on the debate stage, which is not a hard thing to do, that is not enough to warrant him being on the ticket.

          I also must agree with ClintonforMcCain, I know, I know, hell has frozen over.., youth is the one thing Romney must strongly consider this time. Not talking about some 25 year old, but the youth vote was very important to Obama in 2008, it will be important to his this time, and having a young vibrant conservative on the ticket may give enough of the youth the encouragement to vote with us this time that it may nullify the youth vote for Obama. Not too mention it would be nice for once to see our party as something other than the gathering place for white haired men. I know this is a wrong perception, but it is a perception so many have.

          I would love to see Romney chose a strong conservative who is under 40, being either a minority, woman, or both, and who is vibrant and driven to make this country a better place.

          • commonsenseobserver

            Without undermining Romney’s image as a moderate who can reform Washington, of course.

            Wait… Romney seems like what some liberals thought of Carter if we describe him like that. :P

    • Finrod

      But would Fred Thompson sign on as VP? I had heard he turned away any thought of being VP four years ago, but I don’t know whether he would be more receptive this time or not.

      • GregInFla

        He was off the scene for a while after his radio show gig ended after two years. He just started aggressively with his new website, with emails to all his donors and whatever other email lists he got hold of. It would seem he wants to get back into the game, but maybe it would be more of a Fox contributor than a political position. He’d be a good AG as well as a foreign policy advisor in a Romney administration. No one has pointed our Romney’s lack of an foreign policy experience besides outsourcing jobs (sorry, just could not hold back on that one.)

        • naraht

          Foreign Policy experience is something that is rather difficult to get in a Presidential Candidate.

          VP: These days the Presidents actually keep the VPs up to date on Foreign Policy (as opposed to FDR keeping Truman in the Dark)
          Congress: Get on one of the appropriate committees. If you can, get a chairmanship of a subcommittee (Chamber leadership (?))
          Governors: For the most part only the big state coastal Governors tend to get respect in this (California, Texas, Florida, New York).
          Cabinet/similar: Secretary of State, CIA Director (for GHWB).

          The jokes are unlikely to come since while an incumbent president always has more foreign policy experience than a challenger, Romney doesn’t have significantly less foreign policy experience than Obama did 4 years ago and has more than Clinton did in 1992.

          Out of the Republican field, the two that maybe could talk about Foreign policy experience more than Romney are Perry and Gingrich, I guess.

  • greyeagle

    I prefer Col. Allen West out of Florida.

    • ww2nd95

      but I think he could be a hard sell to a lot of indys. I would much prefer Bobby Jindel. I see what you’re saying about losing a good Gov though.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      Take off your mask and reveal your true identity–Sarah Palin.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Romney, of course, should focus on the toss-ups and wavering red states, but where he has a feasible opportunity, such as New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, even Oregon, New Jersey, Maine or Minnesota, he should be willing to devote some resources to turning these states into toss-ups.

    The problem is money.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      I would agree that at least initially, it would be worthwhile to make a run at Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, particularly if those states are in the toss up category. I think a Great Lakes strategy as an alternative to counting on Florida is worth pursuing. But NM, OR, NJ, ME (except 2nd district) and MN are a waste of time and precious $$$. If he were to win any of those, this would be a landslide election. As you state, the problem is money.

      • commonsenseobserver

        Bush won the first in 2004, of course, the I remember that based on a uniform national swing, Minnesota would be one of the first several “blue” states Obama loses, before Wisconsin, Michigan or ME-02.

        • http://www.rightspeak.net/search/label/-Right%20Wingnut rightwingnut2

          ….or even come here.

          I live in MN. Republicans can win state wide elections, in non-presidential years, but the DFL really cranks up the turnout machine in presidential years.

          Lost cause….

  • trimulchio

    Colorado, I think there is little doubt Gov. Romney will carry both states. Virginia and North Carolina will probably (80% probability) go to Romney, based on McDonald’s obvious success and Perdue’s less successful term. Indiana will be in the Romney fold, due to Daniels.

    PA and OH ARE hard to call.

  • trimulchio

    Gov. McDonald would help in VA; Sen. Rubio in Florida. Both provide geographic diversity and are popular with the base (especially Rubio, a growing icon).

    Rep. West would have less impact than Sen. Rubio in Florida, as he has not won a state-wide elction there.

    Gov Jindal and Rep Ryan are strong leaders, but Jindal was too identified with Gov Perry’s campaign and Rep Ryan is also a Midwesterner, like Gov Romney.

    • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

      He has been a very successful governor now for several years. I like to think about not just which VP choice can help in an election, but more important, would they actually make a good president if they had to step in.

      • trimulchio

        going to be President someday, if he desires to pursue the office. However, I think his strong support of Perry might preclude him from being VP in 2012.

  • GregInFla

    He was governor, after all.

    • zachv

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ma/massachusetts_romney_vs_obama-1804.html

      • GregInFla

        So you will have people voting for Brown and Obama on the same ballot. Liberalism is truly a mental disorder.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      The only “home state” Romney is likely to win is New Hampshire.

  • GregInFla

    Clinton: one daughter, no sons
    Bush43: two daughters, no sons
    Obama: two daughters, no sons

    Romney: no daughters, five sons

    • garfieldjl

      John McCain, has more than one daughter for instance.

      I don’t think that the fact someone has daughters is going to be what wins them the WH.

      Romney has five children, he also has grandchildren now, going after someone cause their children aren’t girls would probably alienate a lot of people. Women that have children and love their children, don’t really care if their child is a son or a daughter, attacking Romney on the fact his children are all boys is more apt to anger a lot of women that people are claiming that their son is somehow worth less than if they had been born a girl.

      While this would secure Obama the radical feminist vote, they were going to vote for Obama anyways. For married women with kids, or single moms (particularly those whom have a son), this is more apt to cause them to support Romney.

      • Flagstaff

        That comment was just a “look at this” kind of thing. Not seriously a suggestion that it means anything.

        • GregInFla

          humor in my comment. I did not think I needed a smilie face on it. But it makes you wonder what the WH would have been like with the Santorum and Palin families in it.

    • Flagstaff

      All daughters. An odd coincidence.

      But George H. W. Bush had sons only, as did Eisenhower, I believe. It’s not a hard and fast requirement.

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        One daughter–Amy.

        And Ronald Reagan: two daughters and two sons. But Michael was adopted by he and Jane Wyman and Ron was, well, Ron.

        • Flagstaff

          Such an important President, too. He also had at least one son, older than Amy. I’d never heard of the son until a few months ago.

          Maybe the key is to have all kids of a single sex. Except for, well, Ron.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            nt

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