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Obama’s first ad buy and the Electoral College map

By: tooncesthecat (Diary)  |  May 8th, 2012 at 10:08 AM  | 

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The Obama campaign has made its first ad buy, which is described in Dan Spencer’s diary.  The ad will appear in nine states:  PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, CO, NH, IA, and NV.  This buy reveals a great deal about Obama’s electoral college strategy:

1.  The buy coincides identically with the states that are identified as swing states on the 270toWin Electoral College Map and ignores the Electoral College Map currently projected by RCP which is much more favorable to Obama.

2.  Obama concedes all of the states that McCain won in 2008 (including Arizona and Missouri) plus Indiana, giving Romney a base of 191 electoral college votes.

3.  The map is wide open, with both Romney and Obama having multiple paths to victory.

4.  The Obama campaign believes that it is in trouble in Pennsylvania, which is the key state to an Obama win.

5.  If Obama wins Pennsylvania then Romney must either win Florida or expand the map to Michigan and/or Wisconsin or the election is over.

6.  In turn, if Romney wins FL, OH, and NC (his 3 most likely states out of the nine), Obama must win PA or the election is over.

7.  If Romney wins PA plus OH and NC, Obama would have to win FL or the election is over.

8.  Pennsylvania and Florida are therefore the two most important states on this map.  If either candidate wins both, he will win the election.  Yes, Romney would have more work to do, but if these two fall to Romney the rest of the map will also.

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  • naraht

    One issue that Obama has in spreading his money is that three states that they think the current polling makes *possible* are states where the Democrats want to spend money helping their Senate candidates: Arizona, Missouri and Indiana. But this buy doesn’t reach out that far…

    Obama certainly spent money in Pennsylvania in 2008, spending zero there in 2012 would be stupid of him… If he spends *more* on PA than in 2008, then that is a significant sign…

  • commonsenseobserver

    Obama 47%, Romney 43%???

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d

    Republicans won’t make up 35% of voters, and Democrats make up at least 40%, but this seems rather strange….

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      to turn purple in the next two months. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the race tighten up in California, for example. But this still want change the key states to a Romney win. Just makes a landslide possible.