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    2014 and Republican Morale

    2014 and Republican Morale

    There’s been a lot written about the impact of the 2014 elections, but let’s not overlook one of the really crucial points: its effect on Republican morale. Republicans didn’t just need a win: we needed a win that met or exceeded pre-Election Day expectations. 2014 delivered that – every Republican who was expected to contend on Election Day contended; every Republican who was expected to | Read More »

    The Breakers Broke: A Look Back At The Fall 2014 Polls

    The Breakers Broke: A Look Back At The Fall 2014 Polls

    As promised in my first cut after the election, a more detailed walk by the numbers through the 2014 Senate and Governors race polling and my posts on the subject to illustrate that the election unfolded pretty much along the lines I projected on September 15, when I wrote that “[i]f…historical patterns hold in 2014, we would…expect Republicans to win all the races in which | Read More »

    The 2014 Polls And The 2012 Exit Polls

    The 2014 Polls And The 2012 Exit Polls

    2014 was, as you have probably heard by now, not the best year for polling; even Nate Silver concluded not only that the polls were skewed to overstate the performance of Democrats, but that it was, on average, tied with 2002 as the second-worst polling year for Senate races since 1990 (the worst was 1998). That couldn’t be predicted before the election, but a major | Read More »

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    Nobody at Vox.com Has Read The Fourteenth Amendment

    Nobody at Vox.com Has Read The Fourteenth Amendment

    Vox.com has published an “analysis” claiming that Republican-run states could legally just abolish the popular vote in presidential elections. It is obvious from the fact that this was actually published, and has not been corrected three days later, that neither the author, Vox Executive Editor Matthew Yglesias, nor anybody else in the site’s editorial chain has read the Fourteenth Amendment. Yglesias starts out his post, | Read More »

    BREAKING: Supreme Court Takes Obamacare Subsidies Case

    BREAKING: Supreme Court Takes Obamacare Subsidies Case

    News just came down this afternoon that the Supreme Court has granted certiorari in King v. Burwell (No. 14-114), to decide whether the subsidies provided by Obamacare for the purchase of health insurance policies are available on the federally operated Healthcare.gov exchange, or only on state-established exchanges in those states that have one (a diminishing number, given that several of those states’ exchanges collapsed and | Read More »

    First Cut: 7 Polling and Elections Lessons From 2014

    First Cut: 7 Polling and Elections Lessons From 2014

    Well, Dear Readers, that went well. If you’re like me, you are probably a little sleep-deprived from a truly epic Election Night, and a detailed walk through the data will have to wait a bit (votes are still being counted, so margins of victory will be a bit of a moving target for the next week). But I have expended a lot of time and | Read More »

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    Why I Voted Yes On Question 1 (NY)

    As a conservative Republican, I don’t have many hard choices come the general election. I voted for Rob Astorino for Governor, a worthy choice who deserved better than the thrashing he’s going to get at the hands of Andrew Cuomo, and for the GOP nominee for State Comptroller. There was no Republican nominee at all for Congress, State Senate or State Assembly – a particularly | Read More »

    Final Senate Breakers & Governors Breakers Report November 3, 2014

    Final Senate Breakers & Governors Breakers Report November 3, 2014

    Here we are: the end of the campaigns. We have likely seen our last polls. And yet, they seem unsatisfying. The mood in 2006 and 2010 was clear: the President’s party was going to suffer, and the only question was how much. That’s true today as well, but in some ways this feels more like the eve of the 2002 election in the sense that | Read More »

    Senate Breakers Report October 30, 2014

    Senate Breakers Report October 30, 2014

    We come at last to the home stretch, and that means it’s time to consider again what the polls mean, what they can tell us, and what they can’t. The short answer is that we still do not know what is going to happen – but we still have a good deal of evidence to work with, and most of it suggests that Republicans have | Read More »

    Governors Breakers Report October 30, 2014

    Governors Breakers Report October 30, 2014

    There’s a lot of poll news to digest, five days from the election. Let’s start with the Governors races, which I last examined on October 22. As always, my method – explained at the outset – is to look specifically at the question of, assuming the accuracy of the RCP poll averages, what percentage of the remaining undecided voters would need to break in the | Read More »

    A Sad and Desperate Attack on Chris Christie

    A Sad and Desperate Attack on Chris Christie

    The Online Left, in its customary fashion, has contrived to feign outrage over RGA Chairman Chris Christie for saying this at a Chamber of Commerce event in DC: “Would you rather have Rick Scott in Florida overseeing the voting mechanism, or Charlie Crist? Would you rather have Scott Walker in Wisconsin overseeing the voting mechanism, or would you rather have Mary Burke? Who would you | Read More »

    Governors Breakers Report October 22, 2014

    Governors Breakers Report October 22, 2014

    As promised yesterday, the second half of the latest installment of my roundup of the RCP polling averages (these for the Governor’s races), looking at what share of the remaining undecided vote would need to break in the GOP’s direction to win each race. The overall trend across numerous races since October 1 (even since yesterday, when I started gathering these figures) is positive, but | Read More »

    Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014

    Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014

    Since I last looked at the Senate races 11 days ago, the picture of the home stretch has started to come a little more clearly into focus, albeit with a frustratingly large number of undecided voters still showing up in the polls even in states that have already begun early voting. The high number of undecideds is one of several reasons to question the reliability | Read More »

    Senate and Governors Breakers Report October 10, 2014

    Senate and Governors Breakers Report October 10, 2014

    In the ten days since I last looked at the polling in the Senate and Governors races, Republicans have seen some progress in a few races, but the overall steady momentum we had seen throughout September has slowed, and some races have taken a step backwards. Nearly all of these movements have been small, and there remain large numbers of undecided voters in all but | Read More »

    Senate Breakers Report and Governors Breakers Report: Oct 1

    Senate Breakers Report and Governors Breakers Report: Oct 1

    When we last left the Senate races on Friday, the state of the polling was consistent with the theory that undecided voters would break for the GOP due to President Obama’s low approval ratings and the consequent surge for the GOP in the generic ballot, but we had not yet seen enough movement to conclude that this was actually going to happen. We have new | Read More »


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