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    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time – A Polling Post-Mortem (Part III of III)

    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time - A Polling Post-Mortem (Part III of III)

    This is the third and final part of my three-part polling post-mortem. Part I here looks at the national and state polls, and Part II at the likely voter screens and the electorate. V. Polls vs. Non-Poll Tools One of my premises in reviewing projections of turnout was that other items of information besides the polls were worth reviewing. Many of these same indicators favoring | Read More »

    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time – A Polling Post-Mortem (Part II of III)

    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time - A Polling Post-Mortem (Part II of III)

    The second part of my 3-part post-mortem on the polls and the 2012 election. See yesterday’s Part I here. IV. Likely vs. Registered Voters A. Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Screen Near the heart of every major polling controversy this year was the issue of sampling and likely-voter screens. Polls traditionally report results among either “all adults” (whether or not registered to | Read More »

    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time – A Polling Post-Mortem (Part I of III)

    Sometimes, It Really Is Different This Time - A Polling Post-Mortem (Part I of III)

    As promised, a mea culpa on my pre-election poll analysis: why I was wrong, why the state poll averages were right – and why I’d say most of the same things if I had to do it over. I suppose I have lost a good deal of credibility with a number of people by making the kind of out-on-a-limb prediction I don’t usually make, and | Read More »

    The Fall of the House of Romney

    Let’s not sugarcoat this: last night was a bitter loss for Republicans and conservatives, all the worse because the presidential race – like a number of the key Senate races – was eminently winnable, and down the stretch a great many of us believed we were going to win it. I’ll return (hopefully this week) to the poll-reading question of why that was wrong, after | Read More »

    Get Out The Vote

    Get Out The Vote

    Today is our day, the voters’ day. Here’s a little reminder from some Republicans you may remember about the importance of getting out the vote.

    My Final Election 2012 Predictions

    My Final Election 2012 Predictions

    It’s time to start making final predictions for the 2012 election. I’m also rounding up predictions from others who are out on the limb with me predicting a Romney victory. I still feel fairly confident about my bottom line: Romney will win. But until we see the actual voter turnout, it’s hard to project more than educated guesswork as to the size of that win. | Read More »

    No, Independents Are Not Just Discouraged Republicans

    No, Independents Are Not Just Discouraged Republicans

    The centerpiece of my thesis (discussed here and here) that Mitt Romney will win Tuesday’s election is his consistently strong showing among independent voters (ie, voters who identify as neither Republicans nor Democrats) across the majority of national and state polls, pretty much regardless of whether those are polls he’s winning or losing. On that score, I believe the polls; if they’re wrong about the | Read More »

    On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed

    On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed

    There’s a very large gulf between my conclusion, explained on Friday, that Obama is toast on Election Day and confident projections like Nate Silver’s poll-reading model still giving the president (at last check) a 77.4% chance of victory. Let me explain why, and what that says about the difference between my approach and Nate’s. The Limits of Mathematical Models “A page of history is worth | Read More »

    The Man Without A Mandate

    The Man Without A Mandate

    Barack Obama is trying to do something no president has ever done: get re-elected without winning the national popular vote. If he were to somehow succeed at this, he would be the weakest elected president since Rutherford B. Hayes, and the lamest lame duck in American history. Since popular vote totals were first recorded in 1824, four presidents have been elected while losing the popular | Read More »

    Why I Think Obama Is Toast

    Why I Think Obama Is Toast

    Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one. I have never been especially bullish on Mitt Romney, and I spent most of the summer and early fall arguing that this was basically a neck-and-neck race that would go down to the wire. But in the end, | Read More »

    Barack Obama: Soft on Rapists

    President Obama – having nothing better to talk about in his record – spent tonight on Jay Leno taking wildly out of context Richard Mourdock’s defense of his pro-life position even in cases of rape and incest, a position that may not be politically poll-tested but is morally admirable. Obama, desperate to stem the bleeding with female voters, is trying to cast Republicans as somehow | Read More »

    Barack Obama’s Potemkin Bipartisanship

    Barack Obama's Potemkin Bipartisanship

    One of the major reasons why Mitt Romney was able to make such rapid inroads against Barack Obama in their first debate, and why poll after poll shows that independent voters have turned decisively against Obama, is that Romney was able to lay bare the hollowness of Obama’s claims to bipartisanship. And given the Obama record of the past four years, there is no reason | Read More »

    The Debate Dogs That Didn’t Bark

    The Debate Dogs That Didn't Bark

    The debates are over. It’s worth taking a look at what they didn’t cover, which is sometimes as telling as what was said. In 2000 – as I noted in my first widely-read blog post a decade ago, and as Romney noted last night – the subject of terrorism was not even raised, although it would come to dominate Bush’s tenure in office. Some things | Read More »

    Barack Obama: Corporatist Collectivist (Part I of IV)

    Barack Obama: Corporatist Collectivist (Part I of IV)

    Barack Obama is not a socialist. It’s not surprising that people call him one: to the typical voter, “socialist” is often just shorthand for the next step leftward on the political spectrum from being an ordinary liberal, and people need a vocabulary to express their sense that they see in Obama a further left turn from Mondale-Dukakis-Kerry liberalism. To this day, the Democrats’ caucus in | Read More »

    Barack Obama: Corporatist Collectivist (Part II of IV)

    II. Obama and His Democrats: Their Own Words and Ideas Before we get to Obama’s policies, it’s important to lay the groundwork. Let’s look at his ideas. Barack Obama is well-known for his polished oratory, his delivery off a TelePrompter of carefully prepared and vetted speeches. Unsurprisingly, these prepared texts generally seek to cast his ideas and programs as consistent with the American traditions of | Read More »