NDPhog’s Ohio Poll Average
As a follow-up to my post about Ohio poll skews, I’ll update this diary (I assume that’s the best method, as opposed to making new posts each time) with every few Ohio polls released. Average of polls used: Obama leads 49-45 with a partisan skew of D+5. Romney wins Independents by 4 points. No way that happens and he doesn’t win the state. Realclearpolitics.com average | Read More »
Examining Ohio Polls
Each time a new Ohio Presidential poll comes out, I like to take a look at the cross tabs, specifically the breakdown of D,R,I. The breakdowns in the last four statewide elections were as follows (always D,R,I – from cnn.com): 2004 (Presidential) – 35,40,25 2006 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – 40,37,23 2008 (Presidential) – 39,31,30 2010 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – | Read More »
Obama’s stumping efforts fail again
Undefeated Kentucky basketball received a call from Obama today . To be fair, the main purpose of the call was to praise UK for raising money for Haiti, but then Obama started talking hoops with the team. One of the starters, Patrick Patterson was touched. “Your leadership has inspired us all,” Patterson said. UK then played at unranked South Carolina tonight. And lost, 66-62. Maybe | Read More »
My gas tank and mortgage.
This morning, my gas tank was about 1/8 full. I rode to work with my wife in her car. Tonight, I was hopeful that it had changed. Alas, it was still 1/8 full. A bit of a disappointment. My mortgage payment is automatically deducted on the 5th of the month. “Not this time” thought I. Alas, it was deducted today. More disappointment. Maybe I need | Read More »
Palin rally in Owensville, OH
Posting on BlackBerry. At the Clermont Co. Fairgrounds (the county east of Hamilton, where Cincinnati is), the line is about an hour to get in. Jean Schmidt (OH-2) will be here soon, followed by Gov Palin. Very nice crowd for a Sunday night. More as necessary. NDphog
Why will (some) moderate Democrats of faith vote for McCain?
I’m not blessed with the rhetorical or composition abilities of many on this site, so I have to keep my arguments to my moderate Democrat friends brief. I make three points to them, and let them decide on which side of the argument they fall. These points matter not one whit to liberals or socialists. Rather, these have been made with some success to persuade | Read More »
Eight States to Victory
At this point, there are really no more than eight states that are going to matter, based on their battleground status and their electoral votes. These are the states we should be primarily focused on, over the next few weeks, and these are the states that McCain should be focused on, to varying degrees. The states are in three categories: Must Have, Nice to Have, | Read More »
Big 10 (11?) Poll and Ohio Newspaper Poll
One poll, Ohio Newspapers, has McCain up by 6 (48-42, nearly double the 3.3 MOE). It uses LV, and ran from 9/12 – 9/16. 23% of those polled said Obama’s race would hurt him, but 44% said McCain’s age would hurt him. Proving, of course, that Ohioans feel other Ohioans are ageists. Or not. Maybe a reverse Reagan effect, or something. Other interesting details: McCain | Read More »
Two new Ohio polls show McCain ahead.
As Adam mentioned, there are two new Ohio polls are out today. The Insider Advantage poll has McCain up 1, 48-47 and the StrategicVisionpoll has McCain up 4, 48-44. Looking at the InsiderAdvantage poll, there seems to be a few noteworthy items: First, it was 503 LV on 9/10, within the MOE. Obama wins 18-29 by only 14 points, McCain wins 30-44 by 20 points, | Read More »
New Ohio Poll shows Obama up Five
A new Quinnipiac poll in today’s Cincinnati Enquirer shows Obama up 49-44 over McCain. A few highlights(Edited to show 5 point lead instead of 3): · The poll was of 1,367 likely voters taken from 9/5 (Friday) – 9/9 (Tuesday). · McCain wins over 34 years old by a few points, but loses the 18-34 vote by 64-33%. Will the “Youth Vote” materialize? · They | Read More »