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    Day Two: Obamacare is Going Down

    From the diaries… Wow.  To continue with Handicapping Health Care. Bottom line, I stand by what I said in Handicapping Health Care; however, I increase the odds.  I would handicap it at 65% unconstitutional.  The vote is likely 5-4, but plausibly 6-3, and remotely 7-2.  If the vote is Constitutional, it will be 5-4 (95% chance) and 6-3 (5% chance). The Solicitor General began horribly, sounding | Read More »

    Handicapping Health Care

    [from the diaries] Supreme Court oral arguments on the Affordable Care Act begin Monday.  We can expect a decision either in June or October.  I predict June.  What will it be?  I’ll go out on a limb and predict Unconstitutional by 5-4.  My confidence level is under 60%.  I would not be surprised at Unconstitutional, 6-3, but the odds are less than 1%.  Constitutional at | Read More »