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It’s a Long Time ’til 2012.

I'm so sick of presidential politics I could puke.

By: Steve Maley (Diary)  |  November 16th, 2008 at 07:11 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Barring the unforeseeable (like, for example, a Conservative Epiphany on the part of the current President-elect, or monkeys flying out of my posterior region), I’ll be supporting the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

None of the prominent Republican names deserves a 2012 endorsement at this time, less than two weeks after the 2008 election.


It remains to be seen how successful or popular President Obama will be after his first term (our conservative convictions notwithstanding). We have no idea what challenges our country will face in Foreign Relations, the Economy or the Culture during the next four years.

We have no idea what will happen in the 2010 congressional elections, or what kind of lackeys and bootlicks the new President will appoint to High Office.

In 2004, Sarah Palin was chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission, and on nobody’s radar for Vice-Presidential consideration. With the exception of achance, none of us at RedState even knew the name.

At this time in 2004, Bobby Jindal had yet to take the oath for his first congressional term. Absent the Katrina/Rita debacle in 2005, there’s a very good chance that Governor Kathleen Blanco would be serving out her second term in Baton Rouge right now, and Bobby would still be in Washington.

The same goes for Pawlenty, Sanford, et al.

There is hard work to do. Like defining and shaping a new Republican Party. Like leading the fight for conservative values (e.g., Amendments One and Two, for starters) in the face of an inevitable Democratic onslaught. Like leading the Republicans to victory in 2010. Like having character and avoiding scandal (apparently a challenge for too many). Like just doing the job you’ve been elected to do.

Stuff happens. Let’s hope there are other deserving names, our future standard bearers, that we have yet to meet.

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COMMENTS

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  • NightTwister

    -nt-

    • IJB

      The focus must be on 2010.

      I don’t give a fig about 2012 right now.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    is because he campaigned for four years. Your kind of right. There are key Senate and House seats in 2010 and we must work for the immeidate future.

    But the old paradigm is long gone. No longer can we wait until 18 months out. The organization must start now. It’s the only way to beat the well oiled Obama machine and his minions.

  • gclaghorn

    I, too, wish everyone would just shut up about 2012. It’s four flippin’ years away, for God’s sake.

    • hogiewan

      (first word, second sentence) sorry, that really bugs me.

      well said, vlad. my sentiments exactly. Palin was a nobody until Februaryish to some, August for most. We can start the campaign for conservative values without picking the 2012 ticket right away.

      that said:
      Haley Barbour/Bobby Jindal 2012!

      (j/k)

      • emgbane

        New Republican Party

        If you don?t want to talk about 2012, why post on this topic. I think discussing politics is fun. I certainly would not bore my friends and family with prediction about 2012, but is it to be forbidden at RedState? How boring.

        While we might not have heard of Palin in 2004, we had certainly heard of McCain. We are looking at a generational shift, but the old habit of the Republican Party nominating candidates who we have had a look at should not change. There is no reason to act like democrats and get behind the latest fad. George W. Bush was the first time we nominated a candidate who had not been around on the national scene. I will reframe from bashing Bush, and just say that was not a 100% success.

        About your other point, why do we need a new Republican Party? Two defeats and we need to throw in the towel. President-Elect Obama is the first democratic presidential candidate to get over 50% of the vote in 32 years. He has not governed for one day, and we need to scrap our party.

        What is wrong is with the Republican Party? I live here in Virginia, we lost a few elections, but I don?t think we need to change our Party. I actually like are our chances in 2009.

        Our Attorney General Bob McDonnell is so far running unopposed for the Republican nomination for Governor. He appears to be a solid conservative. The Republican candidate for Fairfax County Supervisor is running as a fiscal conservative. Funny, I can post about 2012, and I can follow my local races.

        I certainly do not think we need a New Republican Party. We need new leaders. We need a new chairman of the RNC, and we need to discuss the new leaders coming on the scene. There is certainly no need to change our principles or our platform. Let?s take time to inform ourselves about the people who would put themselves out as leaders of our party.

        As of today, I know that Republican economic policies work when they are implement. I also know that democratic economic policies do not work. Let?s give President-elect Obama a chance to raise taxes during a recession and watch him fail. Let?s what his cap and trade destroy industries and drive-up energy prices. Republicans do not need a new party to defeat bad economic policies.

        Increasing taxes on small businesses and then giving them a $3,000 tax credit to hire new employees is not going to combat the high unemployment that the tax increases will create. Voters just need a chance to remember what is so bad about liberal economic policies. It?s been a while since they?ve been tried nationally. Voters today seem to think 7% unemployment is the worse since the great depression. Obviously, they know nothing about the Carter years. Sometimes people cannot learn from other people?s experience.

        Many of our new leaders are in their forties. They were teenagers under Carter. They came of age with Reagan and they admire him. They know nothing of Ford and Nixon. These young people who just voted for President-elect Obama no nothing of the Pre-Reagan years when this country experienced high interest rates, high inflation, and high unemployment. Let them spend four years under Carter II, and they will be longing for the Bush economy.

        Voters vote their pocketbook, President-Elect Obama does not have one idea that will help this economy. Wait till he tries to tell the 85% of Americans who like their health insurance, I have to eliminate your health insurance to give health insurance to the uninsured.

        Now that?s change we can reject.

  • GB221

    I agree with Swamp_Yankee’s reply. The rules have changed and we must start early. Yes, we don’t know what will happen in these four years but we should try to make some educated guesses. For example, we can guess whether or not Obama is going to be more to the left on social issues or on economic issues. This will determine the reaction of the opposition. If the base is particularly outraged about social policies (gay marriage, abortion, etc.) it will campaign actively for culturally conservative candidates. If the base is outraged about economic policies it will be energized to support economically conservative candidates. If we guess correctly now we will have an advantage in organizing the base, just as Obama did four years ago. So maybe we should debate the question: what do we predict will energize most the base four year from now: culturally conservative or economically conservative candidates?

  • JLenardDetroit

    no sense in discussing any of this, since so many are convinced the Mayan calendar assures us the end of the world in 2012. lol… with the election of Obama those predictions seem more possible! ;-> Don’t want all that AntiChrist talk again, but one can see the similarities.

    WARNING: Sarcasm… oh forget it…

    • Vladimir

      Step 1. Obama rams thru cap and trade, national health care, gun control, the fairness doctrine, the Windfall Profits Tax and redistribution of wealth.

      Step 2. Economy fails and people are unhappy.

      Step 3. Legions of citizens clamor for a return to Republican dominance.

      Doesn’t sound like much of a plan.

      We need new thinking and new strategies. And, yes, new leadership.

      We need Rs that get their a$$es out of the country club & figure out how to make the party relevant to average Americans, including African Americans and Hispanics.

      We need leadership that understands that the internet is not a “series of tubes”.

      We need Republican politicians that are willing to go to Washington & keep the values that got them elected, without morphing into big-spending entitlement Democrats.

      • NightTwister

        …you weren’t paying attention.

  • melissaann

    “A grassroots movement is one driven by the constituents of a community. The term implies that the creation of the movement and the group supporting it is natural and spontaneous, highlighting the differences between this and a movement that is orchestrated by traditional power structures. Often, grassroots movements are at the local level, as many volunteers in the community give their time to support the local party, which can lead to helping the national party.” (Wikipedia)

    Why aren’t we acting with the same sense of urgency that we did during the election? Key verb: ACTING. Do you know what is a long way away? Conservatives raising billions of dollars to buy the New York Times. What will be here before you know it? 2012.

    We have these amazing sites to educate each other, and we have the big guys on the radio (although Boortz has been groveling since the day after the election..He no doubt wants continued access to the White House and the new administration). But we’re talking to the proverbial choir. I’m going to keep saying this–we have to start NOW. We lost because the base wasn’t moved to vote and we lost because the media shoved this guy down our throats for two years.

    For the next two or four years we are going to watch the media cover for this guy. We already know that whenever BHO screws something up it’s already Bush’s fault. We talk about grassroots but we don’t get off of our butts-We sit at the computer and complain. We have few, if any, leaders who speak for us. It’s up to us!! If we want the truth heard by people who bought into “change” or “making history” or “he’ll govern from the center”, we have to counteract the endless magazine covers, the biased new reports, The View and Oprah, etc.

    This going to require us to make them aware of every promise broken (hello..? Guantanamo..?), every far left action he makes, every lie he’s told and is going to tell. When he has Wright and Ayers as a part of his administration, and involves ACORN in making policy, the “independents”, the “conservative democrats” and the apathetic need to see it and/or hear it. I don’t know why BHO’s associations are a non-issue..? Because the elections over? He’s going to be the freaking president!

    • emgbane

      Those are not my steps 1-2-3. Especially step one. Here let me help. Step one, raise taxes during a recession and extend unemployment benefits resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate. Step two, reinstitute the moratorium on drilling by executive order, and pass cap and trade resulting in an increase energy prices and an increase in the inflation rate. Step three, continue these bailouts and drive up the money supply resulting in an increase in inflation rate.

      I am not predicting anything that is not already in play. These policies are going to hurt an economy that is already in recession. Voters are not going to reward failure. They never have. Since Democrats have been in control of the House and Senate the unemployment rate has gone from 4.6 percent to 6.5 percent, and inflation has gone from 1.9 percent to 4.9 percent. The misery index has gone from 6.47 percent to 11.04 percent. In 2008, the voters blamed President Bush, who would they blame in 2010.

      I do not fear for the future of the Republican Party. I do however, believe President-elect Obama will face difficulty being re-elected if his policies bring about economic hardship.
      That is normally how it works. In 1964, Johnson had a Misery index 6.10 he won re-election. In 1968, it was 8.13 when Nixon won. It was 12.68 when Carter defeated Ford in 1976. In 1980, the misery index was 20.15 when Reagan defeated Carter. In 1984, when Reagan was re-elected the index was down to 11.25. When Bush 41 was elected, the index was down to 9.55. In 1992 when he was defeated by Clinton, it was up to 10.45. When Clinton defeated Dole for re-election, the index was down to 8.66. When Gore tied with Bush, the index was down to 7.35. When Bush was re-elected in 2004 the index was at 8.92. When Obama defeated McCain, the misery index was up to 11.44.

      Look if President-elect Obama’s policies prove good for the country I do not care if he gets re-elected. However, big government liberalism does not work, whether it is offer by Democrats or Republicans. Right now, I am not concerned for the Republican Party. In places were Republican moderates are on the ballot they are being defeated. The Republican caucus in the House of Representatives has the largest number of conservatives ever. If moderates cannot win elections, how are they going to take over the Party? Are Sunday talk shows going to be worse when Congressman Mike Pence is speaking for Republican House Members?

      The Democratic Party had to go into Republican districts and recruit moderate to conservative candidates to gain their majority. Those Democratic House members will have to choose between loyalty to their constituents or to their party leadership. If they choice their party, they will likely be turned out of office. If they choose their constituents, the worst of President-elect Obama’s policies will not be implemented.

      I do not see any reason for panic or despair. Would it be better for the Republican Party if McCain had won and he was implementing cap and trade, spending freezes, and more and more bailouts?

      Look I am a social conservative, so I am deeply disappointed that President-elect Obama will be appointing judges. However, on National Defense and the economy I have been troubled by the current administration, and I never got a since of where Senator McCain wanted to lead the nation. I do not like our current nation building interventionist foreign policy. (I am not a Ron Paul isolationist.)

      If McCain turned out to be a continuation of Bush policies, he would have destroyed the Republican brand returning it to the days of Nixon and Ford. We need to return to the party Reagan built. I think these two cycles’ losses will help us to do that, and history is on my side. 2006 and 2008 were not realigning elections. President-elect Obama will have to enacted great policies to increase his majorities in 2010 and 2012. He has not suggested a single great policy in the primary or the general election so I have no reason to believe he will enact great policies. He has suggested no policies that will lead to economic grow and recovery by the 2010 mid-term elections.

      You say I counting on President-elect Obama failing. No, I am counting on his liberal economic policies failing. If he chooses not to implement them, he will not fail and that will be good for the country. However, I do not expect that to happen, because he will anger the people who voted for him the people who are still angry with President Clinton for signing NAFTA and Welfare Reform. To me he seems to be in a lose lose situation.