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Climate Science: The Devil’s In the Details (Which Apparently No Longer Exist)

Raw data? Oh, I'm sure it's here somewhere. Maybe I left it in my other backpack ... yeah, that's the ticket, my other backpack ...

So there’s this Canadian fellow named Steve McIntyre, who works with an organization called Climate Audit. Climate Audit’s interest is not in debunking Global Warming. Rather, they audit the data in an effort to make sure the conclusions derived are unassailable. To that end, Steve contacted the Climactic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, the repository of the data that underlie the “overwhelming scientific consensus” in the Climate Science community. He requested the original raw data behind their temperature trend conclusions, to wit:

CRU 'Value Added' Temperature History

CRU

You’d expect scientists who are so sure of their conslusions to welcome this type of scrutiny. Instead, Steve got the Heisman Treatment – the big stiffarm – because he’s “not an academic”.

No problem. Enter Roger Pielke, Jr., a like-minded inquisitive scientist, a professor of environmental studies at UC-Boulder, true Climate Change believer, and academic. After considerable hemming and hawing from the CRU, Roger finally got this answer:

We are not in a position to supply data for a particular country not covered by the example agreements referred to earlier, as we have never had sufficient resources to keep track of the exact source of each individual monthly value. Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data. [emphasis in Dr. Pielke's quote]

OK, so granted, the data may not have fit on a 5-1/4″ floppy disk, but you did have a filing cabinet, I assume?

Here’s Dr. Pielke’s reaction:

Say what?! CRU has lost track of the original data that it uses to create its global temperature record!? Can this be serious? So not only is it now impossible to replicate or reevaluate homogeneity adjustments made in the past — which might be important to do as new information is learned about the spatial representativeness of siting, land use effects, and so on — but it is now also impossible to create a new temperature index from scratch. CRU is basically saying, “trust us.” So much for settling questions and resolving debates with empirical information (i.e., science).

To be absolutely clear, none of what I write here should be taken as implying that actions to decarbonize the global economy or improve adaptation do not make sense — they do. However, just because climate change is important and because there are opponents to action that will seize upon whatever they can to make their arguments, does not justify overlooking or defending this degree of scientific sloppiness and ineptitude. Implementing successful climate policy will have to overcome the missteps of the climate science community, and this is a big one.

This is all a Climate Change Skeptic needs to justify his skepticism. Science is all about the data, and a true scientific practitioner rigorously keeps raw data just so it can be subjected to skeptical review. This is Scientific Method 101.

In this case, the CRU has the audacity to refer to their temperature record as “value-added”. In other words, normalized, fudged, mixmastered, sandblasted, then run thru the Cuisinart. And when other scientists ask to verify their methodology, they’re given the ivory-tower equivalent of “the dog ate my homework”. Sheesh.

H/T MasterResource.org, via Cooler Heads Digest, the Competitive Enterprise Institute

COMMENTS

  • snowshooze

    I would hope to see this article would hit our pop news services..

    • farstar99

      They’ve been weaseling their way through this and the skeptics have let them.

      If you allow them to change the terms, they never have to prove anything.

      Keep calling it global warming, no matter what they call it.

      If you accept everything on their terms, they can claim they fixed a problem that never existed.

      Anti-Rhinoceros pill scams are a Democrat specialty.

  • http://www.colbykamin.com/ Colby Kamin

    And as a student of the University of Colorado at Boulder, I should note that we are referred to as “CU Boulder,” not “UC Boulder.” Don’t ask why…but that’s the way of it.

    • http://www.fredsnews.com Fred Maidment

      People see “UC” and assume California. Even the University of Connecticut goes by UConn.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Republicans need to seize on. Lawyers call it the logical import of the words used.

    see more here

    http://www.redstate.com/gamecock/2009/08/14/gibbs-admits-white-house-has-names-on-a-list/

    excerpt

    In my eight years as a converted conservative Republican, op-ed newspaper columnist and blogger, I have been continually frustrated with my political allies? seeming blindness to or reluctance to acknowledge the fact of, obvious admissions by our liberal Democrat opponents on matters that we deem crucially important to our case against them.

    During the recent Presidential campaign I was frequently beside myself as I witnessed, especially Republican elected officials, but also some TV and Radio talk show hosts and even fellow bloggers that would play audio and video of Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright that left no ambiguity as to their venality or stands on issues, and yet end the conversation by saying that said conclusive proof merely ?raised more questions?.

    I was reminded of this more recently by some timid Republican senators concerning Sotomayor?s public statements. It is as if all they want to accomplish is for Obama or Sotomayor to tell them a clever lie that somehow erases the obvious previous statements from their minds.

    Now comes the exchange between Megan Kelly of Fox News in which White House spokesman Bill Burton initially refuses to answer Kelly?s question as to whether the White House is purging emails they solicited via a website that identify opponents of ObamaDems health care reform plan. Finally, Burton states: ?Why would we purge them??

    This is known in the law as an admission! Yet, most stories claim that the White House has not answered the question and that Burton?s responses merely raise more questions. No it does not. We now know that they don?t purge the emails.

    Can we please stop being the stupid party?

    [end update]

    During a lengthy exchange with a reporter in the White House Briefing Room in response to a recounting of communications received by said reporter from citizens claiming to have received unsolicited emails touting health care reform legislation from The White House, Obama?s Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stated the following:

    MR. GIBBS: I?d be interested to see who you got that e-mail from and whether or not they?re on the list. I don?t ?

    This admission of the existence of ?the list? was not adequately followed up on, as can be seen from the full transcript.

    This is what trial lawyers call admissions against interest.

    These are the types of statements that get blown up on posters for displays to the jury during closing argument. These are the types of statements that are followed up on with the witness on cross-examination while the cross-examiner looks the jurors in the eye with raised eyebrows.

    In short, these are the types of statements that win cases.

  • http://briansimpson.wordpress.com Brian Simpson

    The scientists are learning from the politicians and not vice versa.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    One of the tenets of valid experimentation is the ability to repeat the experiment.

    But there is no source data to use for input into new and improved climate models.

    I think a few PHDs need to be revoked.

    • http://www.fredsnews.com Fred Maidment

      Not only repeatability with the existing data, but the ability to take said data and apply it in a new experiment, with predictable results.

      When a climate model is developed from 1990-2005 and is then expected to predict climate in 2020, it should be able to do the same for 1970 to 1985 and “predict” the climate in 2000.

      “Scientists” haven’t been able to do this with any of their models. Ironically, the most accurate computer models yet developed are the low-resolution, simplistic models from the early 1970s. The ones that predicted steady or cooling temperatures…

    • Xasteius
    • bk

      How is “we took the original data, modified it, and then erased the original data” any different than “we just pulled the numbers out of thin air”? Answer: It’s not.

  • WarEagle01

    the data that the AGW advocates use to justify massive society-changing policy presciptions is now just gone and we’re literally just supposed to take their word for it? Am I reading that correctly?

    • Vladimir
      • janis

        about Obama wanting to get this cap and tax crap passed before Dec. because he wanted to wave this accomplishment in front of the Chinese and Indians at some year end global conference initiative thing. And just the other day I saw a headline on Drudge that claimed, “Only four months to save the environment!” I never followed it up because I’ve only got so much time and this looked like the usual run of Chicken Little garbage.

        It is just such a coincidence, isn’t it? Obama somehow knew that we only have until December to save the planet! (She said with starry-eyed wonder at the brilliance of the Zero and the honesty of the “scientists.”)

  • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

    Anyone that can read knows that ocean temps and study of polar ice caps are far more important than adverage air temps. It is a bit scary though, we should be in the beginning stages of a cooling cycle, we shouldn’t be getting warmer at all.

    • janis

      All the stats from this summer in particular say the opposite. So what’s so scary?

      • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

        we are dealing with over 5 years of severe dought. There were flowers bloomming in Alaska this year in areas that haven’t seen that happen for millions of years. And the Artic is still losing permanent snow pack every year at alarming rates.

        My not be proof for you, but I think it points in that direction.

        • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

          the brilliant idea of averaging all the temps and ice all over the globe.

          wow, what a concept

          and, looking at Myrtle Beach and seeing if its still there

          it is

        • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

          I FINALLY GET THE TROLL THING EARLY ON

          MIND YOU, I DO NOT CALL FOR BLAMMING

          BUT SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY BE ONE THAT WILL ASK THE SAME QUESTION OVER AND OVER, ALWAYS IGNORING THE LOGIC OF REPLIES

          I STILL WISH TO REFUTE FOR A TIME AND PLANT SEEDS IN LIB LURKERS BUT

          JUST TRYING TO SEE IF I HAVE AN INKLING OF WHAT SO MANY HERE OBCESS OVER…

          SMILE

        • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            Astrophysics tells use we are well into a cycle where the earth is moving into obits that correspond to obits that last happened during the “Little Ice Age” some 10,000 years ago. We should be getting much cooler, polar ice caps should be growing, but that’s not what’s happening.

            Smaller polar ice packs each year is a fact that can be observed and quanified it’s not “anecdotal evidence”. NASA has been tracking polar ice for decades. Just check it out.

          • Jack_Savage

            Surely they have been tracking this too…

          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            when you don’t have a valid argument that’s all you can really do. Right?

            Astrophysics is the science of planetary motion. It’s not anything like astrology.

            Did I really need to point that out?

          • Jack_Savage

            Are you sure astrologists haven’t been tracking things? I mean, when Jupiter aligns with Mars and it is the Age of Aquarius and all that stuff- Al Gore makes no mention of that?

            I feel sure we need them to weigh in on this issue. I’ll check it out, you betcha.

          • janis

            What we don’t have is a valid protagonist to argue them with. You state “facts” every time you post, but you don’t give sources for your “facts” so far as I can tell. We can spew all kinds of facts, too.

            So far, you’ve not won anyone over to your side because most of us here have fought this fight already with people much better equipped with “facts” than you’ve been. You really are very late to this subject–so late that the “problem” has already corrected itself. That one degree in temp rise is over with. Besides, didn’t you hear? Obama won the election and that was the moment that the oceans quit rising and the planet healed itself. Problem solved, you can go home now. Thanks for playing.

          • http://www.redstate.com/tnjim TNJim

            that might cause him grief. I’ve been waiting for him to post something to back his claims up since I slammed his buddy Al Gore Saturday. Still no link from him to back up his stuff. Oh, well here’s a sneak peek for you, Janis.

            Don’t let rmforbes see that just yet ;) .

          • janis

            Which is appropriate, given the name of the screen you showed me. Well, if he sees it, it won’t be because I showed it to him!

          • Brian Hibbert

            How does that fit into your “warming” religion?

          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            In your region maybe, but not the whole global ecosystem. Polar permanent snow packs are still retreating, this summer in the artic, exposing ground that has never seen sunlight. Show me your proof.

            Yes, I am a very religious person. Faith is important to anyone who wishes to come into a close relationship with God. However, using religion as an insult is beyond all decency. If you cannot argue your points with facts and logic and can only call into question my intelligence or my faith, then you sir are the real fool.

          • DONTREADONME

            polar permanent ice packs are still retreating? Compared to what, 2008 or 2007 or maybe the average of 1970-2000? So, the polar ice caps retreat and North America is having a rather enjoyable summer season?

            Lastly, do you think the ground under the northern regions “normally” below ice has never seen sun? The southern hemisphere hows it doing this winter? BTW, please tell me when was the last time that the north pole had an ice free summer, 1958, global warming was in hyper drive that year? You see, I can do the whole skeptic thing rather nicely since you have no evidence proving what-so-ever definitively that cataclysmic global warming is occuring. Please show me the experimental process for verifying the existence of that which you claim. Seriously, show me? I will be waiting.

          • DONTREADONME

            http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            the changes we are arguing about happen over hundreds or thousands of years and individual year variations means very little, I would be willing to concede that your chart does show an improvement over 2007. But according to Milankovitch orbital variations the chart should be above the adverage not below.

            http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html

            I have not been able to find the article I read a couple months ago about the valley in the artic, well above the artic circle, that was blooming with wildflowers. The article said that it was getting to be quite a tourist destination and locals were saying it was noticed first about 5 years ago and getting larger every year. Even Sarah Palin mentioned this valley of colorfull flowers surrounded by tundra in one of her television interviews.

          • DONTREADONME

            you know what irritates me the most about the global warming proponents are they always state ice thats formed over 100′s of 1000s of years is disappearing, but what makes no sense to me is how can you have ice thats formed over hundreds of thousands of years if it was non-existent at one time or another in the last 3000 years? Next, I think you really want global warming to be true so that you do not look like an idiot, but there has not been one experiment that has proved without failure its existence. Nor does anyone have a model that does not fall apart when all factors are considered. So you must not be into science, because I would never hire you believing in this garbage, BTW VA has been rather cool this summer? Whats up with that? Oh let me guess El Nina or El Nino not up to snuff this year? Come on, pal stick to the monday morning science, leave science up to the people that actually realize you need to prove your hypothesis before you claim it to be a fact.

            BTW, last I checked the North Pole was still covered by ice, what happened in 1958?

          • DONTREADONME

            Nice to see I am having an argument with an idiot, no wonder you have a small business. Not much brain power to move beyond that, huh? BTW, it is RMforbes over at the daily kooks, right? Your website link gave you away. Now Shooh.

          • DONTREADONME

            I knew this guy was fishy, thanks pal for contributing to global warming by making me expend electrons to argue with you.

          • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

            besides which, it is utterly beyond stupid to blame an insignificant increase of a barley significant greenhouse contributor for any sort of warming. The entire contribution of co2 to the greenhouse effect is miniscule, and the part of that increase which is attributable to man is much smaller.

            You might want to get educated on the subject instead of regurgitating scare hoax agitprop. You can start with this thread:

            http://www.redstate.com/kyle8/2009/01/15/the-wheels-continue-to-come-off-of-the-global-warming-hoax/

          • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

            The end of the last glacial period was 10K years ago – well, actually 12.5K years ago. I assume that you were duckspeaking there about precession, and how it relates to Milankovitch Theory; and I’m presuming that you meant ‘orbits’ there, which doesn’t stop hurting my head, but merely puts that headache into a different plane, if you’ll pardon the pun. Note that I know very little about most of this (outside of the LIA bit); I do, however, know how to use the Internet to look up stuff, which is apparently a step beyond, well, you.

            Also, you were rude elsewhere.

            Blam.

        • janis

          coolest July I can remember, with huge amounts of rain in an area that is usually quite dry from mid-June until September or so. By the way, did you happen to see where the former head of Greenpeace managed to confess that they lied about Arctic Ice predictions?

          You mention “facts” but you give no links to such. Care to try doing that?

          • muffin

            for 13 years. First 11 here we had barely any winter weather at all. Last two winters we’ve had hard freezes. February this year saw 28 degrees several nights in a row here which is unheard of. So, tell me again about the global warming?

  • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

    Losing more than a million acres of permanent snow pack in the Artic this year is not exactly reason to celebrate.

    We are moving away from the sun and should be in a cooling cycle. We should be gaining permanent snow pack not losing it. From historical records and astrophysics we should be heading into another little iceage, not getting warmer or even staying the same.

    • Vladimir

      We’re evesdropping on a internecine battle amongst climate scientists who all believe in global warming.

      They picked air temp, not us.

      BTW, have you noticed how hard it is to rebut any of the scientific points in the debate? The target is continually shifting, as your comments demonstrate.

      • dennism

        …when the home team can’t do anything but move the goalposts.

      • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

        if those that believe that human activity is contributing to global climate change that will be an increasing problem for mankind are not agreeing on every pertainent fact then the opposite must be true. That makes it easy because you don’t have to scientifically prove anything. Since they don’t agree on everything then they must be wrong. Lazy logic.

        • Vladimir

          We are asked to accept a scientific conclusion with out an opportunity to fact check. That’s so unscientific it even bothers some scientists who are inclined to agree.

          That doesn’t bother you just a little bit?

          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            In fact most people who know me consider me quite bright. Plus, I never asked you to accept anything without checking it out. Just don’t assume your conclusion to be true first and then cherry pick facts that seem to support your conclusions. Keep an open mind, investigate, make observations, and then let the facts point to a logical conclusion. Even then, neither one of us will likely get it a 100% right.

          • Martin Knight

            You’re new here. We’ve been discussing this since Redstate went live as redstate.org.

            We have followed the science, and we have seen the prevarications, the complete failures of every climate model to comport with reality, the blatant dishonesty and attempts to cover up contrary information, unscientific refusals to share data and attempts to blackball and intimidate skeptics by the Global Warmists.

            So for you to come and try to lecture us is a little rich.

            And dumb. Because you still fail to comprehend Vladimir’s point. The data that is “missing” is essentially the entire basis for all the hoopla about NYC going underwater in 100 years. It’s not just “one” fact, it is one of the major pillars upholding the entire religion of Global Warmism.

            Answer me this; without the raw data, how does one replicate the results? Do you know anything about science at all?

          • aesthete

            that a guy who thinks that anecdotes on a part of AK are the equivalent of hard evidence for the entire planet is “bright”! Good call, GC; definitely a troll. I refuse to believe that someone could be that unintentionally stupid :)

            Also, we ARE keeping an open mind. That’s why we’re not jumping to implement some overbilled program that will damage our economy (and which won’t do anything significant for global warming anyways, according to most scientists who believe in climate change) for the sake of the TrueBelievers?.

          • redneck_hippie

            Been a while since I saw one of those. Neil, if it gets blammed, I get first dibs to take it to the taxidermist.

            I almost asked if I could stuff and mount him, but it sounded a bit profane.

            Methinks most of its bretheren are being baptised in a new faith, you know, scientific theory. It’s getting so you hardly ever find a global warmer here. Endangered species?

        • janis

          excuse du jour is, we were winning the argument. Perhaps you haven’t heard that now more than half of all Americans polled on the subject don’t believe in AGW? When polled on the subjects that concern them the most, the public lists AGW so far down the list that it doesn’t even show up in the top 20.

          As to any group being guilty of “not having to scientifically prove anything”, the TrueBelievers already took those honors, thank you. See “An Inconvenient Truth”. I saw a copy of it the other day in the $3 bargain bin at Dollar General. Overpriced, but if you want it badly enough…..

          • redneck_hippie
  • rubicon01

    Global temperature reports from independent sources say, temps have been on the decline for the past 8 or more years. In addition, CO2 atmosphere accumulation levels are apparently continuing to rise. Again, CO2 “follows” temperature. CO2 does NOT cause temp change.
    The Cap & Trade tax plan, will only cost us draconian amounts of money for less than one half of one degree C change by 2050. By then, many millions in Africa will die because the money is spent elsewhere & to trade carbon futures through outfits like Al Gore’s which will make him an extremely rich man. Still, almost NO temperature change for trillions. Just seems like all this does is make the suspiciously influential special interest types, who participated or actually wrote the Cap & Trade legislation, rich.
    No, I suspect no collusion or nefarious activist motives. Nope.
    There’s no problem here folks, the data is lost. Move along, just buy into the story line that the sky is falling, & shut up!

    • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

      Does it mean that it’s not necessary to reduce fossil fuel use in America?
      Industry shouldn’t be hampered by clean air/water standards?
      Or, are you just saying Al Gore should sit on it and spin?
      What is your self-interest in this agrument?

      • Vladimir
      • Martin Knight

        Truly impressive leaps of logic (or not) here.

        • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

          Too many agruments that do not logically follow the facts.

          • Vladimir
          • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

            data must be validated and evaluated. If the data is shown to be valid and be able to be replicated by independent sources then it must be accounted for in the conclusions. However, if the data cannot be validated or independently replicated it must be discounted. This is how science works, it keeps psudo-scientists from making up data to support conclusions that are not true. Which I believe, along with the vast majority of all real scientists, is happening in this psudo debate around climate change. The scientific evidence is in place but the energy industy lobbyist are diverting the debate away from the facts to protect and maintain profit margins. They have no real interest in facts.

          • Vladimir

            “data must be validated and evaluated. If the data is shown to be valid and be able to be replicated by independent sources then it must be accounted for in the conclusions. However, if the data cannot be validated or independently replicated it must be discounted. This is how science works, it keeps psudo-scientists (sic) from making up data to support conclusions that are not true.”

            Well, that’s kind of the point of the OP.

            “The scientific evidence is in place but the energy industy lobbyist are diverting the debate away from the facts to protect and maintain profit margins. They have no real interest in facts.”

            Huh? Exxon, BP, Shell, all the big oil companies are pretty much on board with AGW. And, yeah, they’ll figure out how they can make a buck off it, whether or not it’s true.

      • Jack_Savage

        I call moby.

        And FWIW, Al Gore is a liar and a fraud, and the only thing global warming has done is made a tired hack rich.

        I will believe it is a crisis when this blowhard jackass starts acting like it is a crisis – that’s what it means to me, pal.

        • http://www.rmforbes.net rmforbes

          Then when do we need to act? You decide. How many square miles of polar ice pack do we need to loose before you notice? Who cares about Americans that live on the coast. They can tread water. Right?

          • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

            With a cap and tax bill that will reduce emissions by less than 1% by 2030 or some such.

            Leaps of logic? Try none at all.

          • janis

            As I said, I’m from Tennessee, Gore’s supposed home state. We know him well here. So well that we refused to allow him to win this state in 2000. He has a home in Belle Meade that is a huge energy hog, and his houseboat is beyond huge. He also uses a Gulfstream jet to fly wherever he goes instead of flying commercial. Tipper has a real nice restored mid-60′s Mustang to tool around Nashville in, too.

            Yeah, he’s a true believer all right. And all of you drones of his are being snookered left, right and center. As to those who live on the coast, they are more likely to be struck by lightening twice than to be underwater due to global warming.

          • Xasteius

          • Jack_Savage

            The whirring of all the energy sucking machines at Al’s mansion is hurting my ears.
            Maybe you should talk to every other country in the developing world about the ice pack. I’m sure they’ll ruin their economies to help – won’t they?

      • http://www.redstate.com/tnjim TNJim

        Al Gore should just sit on it and spin. He’s a hypocrite and the biggest embarrassment to Tennessee since the KKK was founded in Pulaski. His “documenatry” film was full of deceit and his rhetoric now does not take into account recent global climate data. He’s just another agenda driven liberal who has no intention of living under the rules he wants us to live under (see health care and the refusal of Dems to have the same insurance they want to impose on us).

        He should sit on it and spin until it drills a hole through the top of his head from the inside, performing a lobotomy in the process that might take care of that oversized ego he has.

        He should at least sit on it and spin until he decides to finally have an honest debate with scientists from the other side of the AGW debate. But his ego won’t let him, hence my previous paragraph.

  • mschmitt