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FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Remember $4.00 per Gallon Gasoline? Just Wait.

Despite Kyoto, despite Copenhagen, despite the New Green Economy and despite the Democratic Party, world oil demand is expected to increase by 0.8 to 1.5 million barrels a day in 2010, depending on the source of your forecast. That kind of increased demand could lead to a substantial increase in oil prices; when demand exceeds production capability by just a little bit, the price reaction is usually pretty strong.

What has the Obama Administration done to prepare for such an eventuality?

Nothing. Well, nothing positive.

  • In February, Interior Secretary Salazar extended the comment period on the 2010-2015 five-year offshore leasing plan by six months and has not taken any additional action.
  • Likewise, the Administration has failed to make progress on Lease Sale 220 offshore Virginia that was planned for 2011. It’s estimated that the Sale 220 area could contain 1.14 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 130 million barrels of oil.
  • Sec. Salazar cancelled oil and natural gas leases on 77 parcels of federal lands in Utah, then announced that 60 of them would be removed from development–eight permanently and 52 indefinitely.
  • The administration’s fiscal 2010 budget contains at least $80 billion in tax increases on the U.S. oil and natural gas industry. These increases will depress investment in new domestic oil and natural gas projects, weakening the nation’s energy security and doing nothing to defray the impact of higher world oil energy prices on America.

Even as the climate change community is starting to realize that clean, abundant, domestic natural gas is part of the solution, the Administration promulgates policies that delay and discourage domestic production. It’s time to encourage domestic oil and natural gas production to benefit all Americans by raising supply levels, creating well-paying jobs, and improving the nation’s energy security.

Note: This post borrowed heavily, by permission, from Jane Van Ryan’s blog at energytomorrow.org.

COMMENTS

  • baserunr

    That “the time for talk is over” doesn’t apply here?

  • Old_Crow

    We haven’t built a new refinery since the 70′s due to over regulation and other government disincentives.

    Those old refineries will be much too expensive to operate in a Can ‘n Trade environment. So

    We’ll import refined gasoline at a huge cost increase.
    And have to import all those oil based products we use.

    • izoneguy

      you better get used to riding a bike.

      There won’t be any gas.

      • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

        we’ve warned (2008 Campaign Issues: OIL/GAS [with sub-links]) but we all know the MSM will kick in with the EVIL OIL COMPANIES narrative all over again to cover for FAILED LIBERAL POLICY decisions.

    • JoeG

      Many cities are being absorbed as the bigger ones grow and there are very few new ones formed.

      But to claim that the population in cities is decreasing would be a falsehood.

      The parallel is that while there are no new refineries, it would be false to claim that there is no more capacity. Refineries expand all the time.

      • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

        …Marathon Oil is putting the finishing touches on a $3 billion expansion to their refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, for example.

        But the refinery capacity expansion has just been nowhere near what it has needed to be to keep up with demand. And because of that we’re importing gasoline, when that should NEVER have been the case.

        It’s disgusting. Just disgusting.

  • Leopard1996

    Since the high oil and gas prices were the spark that brought the fire on our economy last go round

    • Finrod

      .

    • rbdwiggins

      The spark, actually more like a “lit match,” was the coordinated attack on the US money markets in September 2008.

    • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

      …because of the structural deficiencies in the economy – the commercial real estate bubble, for example, and the government debt choking off the credit markets.

      But these policies have opened us up to the abyss. The 2010-11 recession will, I think, be far worse.

      What I hope is that when it happens it causes the total destruction of the Left in this country. Conservatives need to be ready to explain patiently but forcefully to all who will listen (and most who will not) exactly why Obama’s policies have brought us to ruin and why our prescriptions will bring the country back. We are going to have the opportunity, but it is absolutely imperative that we don’t just win an election or two, but DESTROY the other side.

  • lunarmanathome

    NYMEX exchange for example and pay attention to the oil futures market. There are so many variable when it comes to the price of oil that it’s hard to predict with any certainty.

    The issue we face today is the lack of production capability. It is running at near capacity and without expansion – there is a lot of pressure to push spot market prices up. Peak oil is a fantasy – there is oil aplenty out there. Ethanol is short sighted stupidity and is very costly – even while it’s heavily subsidized. The transportation sector uses nearly 50% of all oil – if we want to make a change in dependence without drilling – it’s in cars, trucks planes and trains.

    • Scope

      “The transportation sector uses nearly 50% of all oil- if we want to make a change in dependence without drilling- it’s in cars, trucks, planes and trains?

      Are you promoting “green” energy? It’s very important for you to explain your position, if you can.

      • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

        …it works far better than ethanol, it’s clean, cheap and domestic. The only downside to natural gas is the distribution network isn’t there yet, but you can switch as much as 20 percent of our vehicle fleet to natural gas relatively easily if you can move all the vehicles to it which fuel at centralized areas – your 18-wheelers, government vehicles, buses, trucks and so forth.

        Also, you can make gasoline from coal. The Germans made diesel from coal during WWII and powered all their tanks and planes with it. It’s profitable when oil gets to $55-57 a barrel, and we have all the coal we would ever need for such a process.

      • Stan(ley) Pruss

        Natural gas from wells within the US can power short haul trucks for lower cost than diesel. Some companies are switching already. T. Boone Pickens has it right on this.

        • 1stRichard

          Natural Gas is not that viable because of the power loss. The biggest waste of fuel now is the emission controls and regulations, and has been since the 70?s. I first started doing Natural Gas conversions on pickups and cars in the late 70?s and found a 15 to 20 percent drop in power, thus to compensate I had to do a lot of fine tuning. It is a total misdirection to think government emission regulation has anything to do with conservation of energy, as they are mostly opposites. For decades, we have been using almost twice the amount of energy-fuel under the guise of lower emission. We should be practicing energy-fuel conservation and not government emission controls and regulations.

          • Vladimir

            I’m interested in what you know about NG vehicles. Natural gas normally trades at a big discount to the price of oil/gasoline, so it would seem that we could tolerate some inefficiency.

            Would a designed NG engine have advantages over a converted gasoline engine?

            What is the typical operating pressure under the hood of a NG vehicle? I’ve been led to believe that it is very high, but I’m not sure if that makes sense.

            From an emissions standpoint, and from the standpoint of maintenance, it would seem that NG has its strengths.

          • 1stRichard

            I could write a book on each topic thus too much so here are some quick topics only

            Energy also measured in BTU is low in Natural Gas or LP and there is no getting around this physical law. As a comparison, diesel fuel typically has a higher energy content then Natural Gas, LP and gasoline. However, diesel fuel can be almost anything as the original intent of the diesel engine was to run on coal dust. In the simplest of terms, what you put in is the amount of work you are going to get out and emission controls for the most part is work or part of what you get out, a negative. When considering a fuel the other part often overlooked is processing and storage of the energy. The overall energy needed to get a car from point A to point B is determined by its coefficient of drag and weight. Batteries have a lot of weight thus, they are not efficient and costly. Natural Gas or LP is stored under pressure thus require heavy steal or very expensive composites furthermore is the prohibitive regulation of these containers. In retrospect, we could have had a lot more running on Natural Gas if it wasn?t for the over regulation. In some states it is illegal to convert to Natural Gas because of emission regulations, you cannot change OEM emission devices even for improvement. As for the cost new regulations are pushing electrical generation toward the use of Natural Gas and the low pricing may be a thing of the past. The CoGen systems (a Chevy big block turning a generator running on a Natural Gas line) are becoming too costly.

            The ?operating pressure? or cylinder pressure is a prerequisite of the fuel mixture and type of fuel, mostly determined by the type of engine. This gets really complicated, for a normal gasoline engine you want the ignition point before top dead center for maximum power and efficiency, and have it proportional to flame propagation and RPM. However too much advancement is preignition that will increase cylinder pressure to the point of depositing the bottom end in to the pavement. Trust me, I have done it and it is not pretty. But, to overcome preignition you can inject water or adjust the fuel (or higher octane) or a combination thereof but there is also the compression ratio to consider. But then, there is the diesel engine whereas the more air and fuel you dump in the faster it goes. That is again up to the point of planting the bottom end in the pavement. The ?operating pressure? or cylinder pressure is better explained by reading a bunch of books. The big difference in a designated Natural Gas is how it is tuned.

            From the standpoint of maintenance Natural Gas is so clean, I have seen engines with the odometer turned over three times with no sludge and like new on the inside. Very impressive!

          • audax

            In polymers believe we use a BTU/cost ratio of 6:1 Oil to NG to determine cost benefit of using oil vs NG for polymers. Using current Nymex futures price oil is $73.64/bbl and NG is $5.68/MMBtu so the “energy” ratio is 12.96.Which means you are getting more than twice the energy value in NG than in oil at todays prices.

      • lunarmanathome

        Ethanol is a stupid waste of resources. Your vehicle requires more fuel using it, we’ve pretty much peaked out on available farmland to grow the gene engineered corn for it, it takes a lot of energy to make it, the water required to irrigate it is sucking the central plains aquifers dry, not to mention the loss of wetlands (bird hunters take note), and the amount of nitrogen pouring down the Mississippi river ends up being dumped in huge quantities. I don’t even want to go down the effect that growing this corn has had on other crops that feed us, the ones that farmers have turned from – those commodity prices look a little scary
        Transportation – our future is in natural gas. It’s cheap, abundant, and as one poster has already said – requires a bigger and better distribution network.

  • Tom_Holsinger

    Gasoline can be synthesized from coal for about $4 a gallon these days. It used to be $10 a gallon, but the technology improved significantly about 18 months ago. This puts an absolute cap on the price of oil for as long as our coal reserves last, and that will be for about 500 years.

    I.e., the upper price of oil may flucuate a bit around the equivalent of $4 a gallon gasoline, but can’t stay above that for long during our lifetimes and those of our great-grandchildren.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      Not even for gasoline.

      • JoeG

        But has there been much interference in open pit? AFAIK, Wyoming is still strip mining like mad.

    • rbdwiggins

      an infrastructure capable of handling the increased demand is already in place and there will be no opposition from the environmentalists.

      $4 Gallon is not the upper limit.

    • JoeG

      The only coal to liquids plant with serious plans right now is the Baard Energy plant in Welsville, OH. Permits are complete, and they could break ground now.

      Unfortunately they are stalled from a lack of funding, even though the Air Force has committed to buy 100% of the output.

      If they get funding the first they will ship product is in 2012. The oil price could really spike long before then.

    • JoeG

      “This puts an absolute cap on the price of oil for as long as our coal reserves last, and that will be for about 500 years. ”

      If we keep doing what we do now (1/2 of the electric generation coming from coal) then the coal reserves last 400 years.

      If we keep burning just as much coal for electricity and switch all imported oil over to coal sourced oil, we wont even make it over 100 years at this point. It can be pushed over 150 years if we switch electric to all nuclear and then source liquid fuel from coal.

      • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

        …if in 100 years we’re still using fossil fuels.

        It’ll be fuel cells or cold fusion or whatever, but at some point somebody will make a breakthrough.

        • Stan(ley) Pruss

          When I was a kid back in the 50′s I heard we were going to have clean fusion power for very low cost. I worked with a very smart fusion physicist who left the Princeton tokomac fusion program over 20 years ago because he realized no one understood plasma physics well enough to control instabilities. He was on a national review panel within the last two years and still thnks fusion energy won’t be a reality even in our children’s lives.

          • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

            100 years ago people weren’t sure these newfangled autovoitures were really going to displace a horse and buggy and people sure as hell didn’t expect you’d get from New York to London on anything but a luxury liner.

            Heaven knows what we’ll be using to power the grid in 2109,

  • 10ksnooker

    How much longer the Democrats can make the lie work about energy independence. The EIA reported recently the USA has more recoverable fossil fuel reserves than any other country.

    You want energy independence, get rid of the Democrats

    • Achance

      and superstition. Just as the Catholic priest required that of the 11th Century peasant, the Left and the Democrats require it of the 21st Century voter. Last year they finally got a majority to be that ignorant and superstitious. So long as they keep that majority, they can make the lies work.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …a barrel this spring and $5 a gallon gas sticks every American family right in the pooper, EVERYONE in the country will recognize the Democrats’ policies as ABJECT FAILURES.

    I’ve posted this before, and I’m gonna post it again…

    http://thehayride.com/2009/10/americas-energy-policy-amounts-to-treason/

    • louisiana

      regularly now that I know about it. Another point to make regarding refining/transporting oil is the money it costs oil co.to conform to DEQ & EPA guidelines & regulations. Just from that perspective alone, cap & tax will be a bureaucratic nightmare.

      • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

        …to energy is wrong.

        As my ex-Marine buddies say, it’s as F—ed up as a football bat.

  • izoneguy

    All pain, no gain – The reality behind the mythology of Cap and Trade

    http://cfact.org/a/1594/All-pain-no-gain

    The PAIN will be intense and widespread

    The House of Representative passed a cap-and-trade bill in July. It requires that carbon dioxide emissions be reduced 83% below 2005 levels by 2050. That would send them back to levels last seen in 1908!

    And that?s before accounting for the far smaller number of people living back then and the old-fashioned manufacturing, transportation and electrification systems of a century ago. Once those factors are taken into account, 2050 carbon dioxide emissions would have to equal what the United States emitted just after the Civil War!

    Some INCONVENIENT TRUTHS about alternative energy

    Burning coal does create carbon dioxide. But coal generates 60-98% of the electricity in Ohio, Indiana and 18 other states, to support millions of manufacturing jobs. If we impose cap-and-trade policies, electricity rates will skyrocket ? and many jobs will migrate to China, India and other countries.

    Impacts on JOBS and FAMILIES

    Independent experts and even the Treasury Department say cap and trade would destroy over a million jobs over the coming decades ? raise energy costs for the average American family by $1,400 to $3,100 per year ? and send overall food and living costs upward by $4,600 annually.

    Clearly, the threat is not from global warming. It is from policies imposed in the name of preventing climate disasters that exist only in computer models, press releases and Hollywood movies. Perhaps worst of all, as bad as these impacts are for people in the United States, they are even worse for poor countries.

    Two billion people in poor countries still do not have electricity! That means no refrigeration, to keep food and medicines from spoiling. No water purification, to reduce baby-killing intestinal diseases. No modern heating and air conditioning, to reduce hypothermia in winter, heat stroke in summer ? and lung disease year-round, because people are constantly breathing pollutants from cooking and heating fires.

    It means no lights or computers, no modern offices, factories, schools, shops, clinics or hospitals. It means permanent poverty, disease and premature death ? because some people care more about far-retched threats to bugs and polar bears, than about real, immediate, life-or-death threats to people, caused by policies that prevent them from getting the energy that will improve, sustain and save their lives.

    The GAIN will be minimal to nonexistent.

    Even the intense pain of slashing America?s carbon dioxide emissions by 83% over the next 40 years ? all the way back to 1908 levels or earlier ? will have virtually no effect on global temperatures and climate.

    In fact, one climate researcher used the alarmists? own computer models to calculate that even this pain and sacrifice would result in global temperatures rising just 0.1 degrees F less by 2050 than not cutting US carbon dioxide emissions at all. And that assumes rising CO2 causes global warming.

    That?s because CO2 emissions from China, India and other countries would quickly dwarf America?s job-killing reductions. China is building a new coal-fired power plant every week and putting millions of new cars on its growing network of highways. So is India. They?re trying to reduce poverty, modernize their nations, improve human health, and ensure that every family, office, school and hospital has electricity.

    After years of criticizing the United States for not signing the Kyoto global warming treaty, Europe will build 40 new coal-fired power plants by 2015. Germany plans to build 27 coal-fired electrical generating plants by 2020. Italy plans to double its reliance on coal in just five years.

    The BOTTOM LINE

    There is no scientific basis for imposing cap-and-trade schemes. They would inflict massive pain for no gain on American businesses and families, and create an intrusive Green Nanny State that destroys jobs, reduces personal freedoms, and hobbles economic opportunities and civil rights.

    • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

      Well done.

      • qixlqatl
  • DavidSage

    One of the most overlooked reasons why Bush became so unpopular was because of high gas prices I firmly believe Bush would have had MUCH higher approval ratings had gas stayed under $2.00 a gallon during his Presidency.

    The difference is, Bush was always trying to expand domestic energy production, Obama in contrast, is always trying to strangle it.

    I have no doubt that gas will be over $4 a gallon by 2012, if not because of demand, because of inflation and fear of a collapsing dollar. If oil goes over a $100 a barrel, it will also snuff out any chance of economic recovery.

    • bk

      Bush was supposed to be the one with the rich oil buddies, but he got stiffed and surprisingly low gas pries have saved Obama’s bacon.

  • Ausonius

    MAObama’s pacifism has allowed more brinkmanship from Iran, which seized part of an oil field in Iraq today which is in so-called “disputed territory.”

    Note the down-playing of this provocation by the MSM: State Department spokesman saying they are monitoring the situation, and that the invasion was “not violent.” Just tanks encircling an oil well!

    Why? Oil prices have been stable to declining: what better way to send them up?

  • http://www.jeannie-ology.com jeannieology

    If you spend $300 or more there and now that Nelson, Sanders, Landrieu and Lieberman will all be working there the clientele won’t need to worry about how to gas up ever again.

    www.jeannie-ology.com

  • louisiana

    Because the end game of cap & trade is to nationalize those industries. Higher energy costs will directly & immediately affect American’s wallets. Oil Co. will be demonized just like the health ins. co. People will be screaming …loudly. Now you have a “crisis”. Think it can’t happen? During Katrina, Homeland Security basically took over the refinery my husband works for. A local oil distributor’s driver & tanker were “borrowed” (w/o permission). It took the distributor a week to get his driver/ tanker back. Right now we’re all focused on health care, but let’s not get so distracted that we forget about this disasterous bill looming in the Senate. Thanks to Vladimir for the reminder!

  • rbdwiggins

    A word that’s related to “change,” as it creates a crisis and presents another opportunity for government intrusion.

    In response to your question…

    Why would the Obama adm. deliberately sabotage the oil/gas industries?

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …then Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma will become absolutely ungovernable in a matter of months.

    I’m talking 1861 all over again.

  • Old_Crow

    was his strategy. Now, it’s the only thing that makes sense.

  • louisiana

    I can remember the long gas lines in the 70′s, but Katrina was different. There was no chaos exactly, but people were on the verge of panic fearing the gas would run out. Even in my small central LA town, there was a limit on the amount of gas you could buy. I wasn’t too worried as my husband worked as a manager of a local oil terminal at the time, & if push came to shove, we did have access to gas that most people did not. Now Katrina & Rita were extraordinary events,but can you imagine the energy shortages should cap & tax pass? Then you will most definitely have chaos.

  • rbdwiggins

    He’s obviously well-versed in the teachings of Alinsky.

  • izoneguy

    Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma??

    I am waiting for the day when the majority of the military brings it toys that go boom down to Texas.

  • rbdwiggins
  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …policies which cause 20-25 percent unemployment overnight in a state without the place going completely nuts. There’s a long history of rebellion in this country in such instances.